Season 2018

Discussion in 'Weather' started by rocketboy, Mar 27, 2018.

  1. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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    Looking very nice for a neutral ENSO - a coolish bias when it counts - tending to slush in spring for a currently scheduled Oct 1 ending.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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  3. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  5. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    The article is from lSept last year yes, however, the trends it examines are multi-year trends so relevant still. Last year we saw less rain than usual later in the season which saw the snow pack washed away less than prior years. And the article’s still relevant as it’s picking up phenomena which can possibly be repeated... not certain, but not impossible.

    East Gippsland’s very dry currently, and the Main range and Vic Alps are drier than usual for this time of year - how that plays out on ground temperatures leading into winter is an issue worth considering.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Precisely why that article is contradicted by 'current' quarterly outlook, moreover relevant tool ahead of the 2018 ski season:
    Source: BOM
     
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  7. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    Thanks - definitely looks like you’re right. Wonder what this might mean for August/ September.
     
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  8. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us

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  9. Chaeron

    Chaeron One of Us
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    Apologies for what may be construed as climate change data in a weather thread - will get back on track.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10710302: Science. 2000 Mar 10;287(5459):1793-6. Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution. D Rosenfeld.

    Critical review: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00433.x

    Air pollution and precipitation suppression over SE Australia: critical review of evidence presented by Rosenfeld (2000) and Rosenfeld (2006) - Greg Ayers, 2009


    A hypothesis that air pollution in the form of small particles has caused a secular decrease in precipitation over South East (SE) Australia was advanced by Rosenfeld (2000), who concluded that the hypothesis was proven. This paper critically reviews the experimental design used in that paper and subsequent work presented in Rosenfeld (2006). It is shown that the meteorological conditions on the single day studied were inappropriate for testing the hypothesis, as was the synoptic weather pattern.

    Moreover, the study failed to consider prior published work in Australia and readily available independent data such as rainfall patterns that call into question the approach used. We conclude that the experimental design was incapable of addressing the hypothesis, which therefore remains unproven.
     
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  10. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us

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    thanks...what I referred to was a study on how particulates of a particular size attach and prevent snow crystal formation due to interference through the attachment...will look up
     
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  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Froff Life, SMSkier, Kopite and 6 others like this.
  12. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    "TL;DR: The Spencers Creek¹ peak snow depth for 2018 will be 201 ± 42 cm."

    Nice job, Gerg. Lel, of course my 'illegal' tweet is there too in a two year streak.
     
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  13. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    This prognosis could be smashed in one weekend.
     
  14. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Doubt it. Half of it could though. Gerg could be on to something.
     
  15. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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  16. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Early Days

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    I'm not very knowledgable when it comes to meteorology. Is that change a good thing???!
     
  17. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    It's not bad. Neutral, maybe a little better.
     
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  18. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Early Days

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    That's good news! So pumped for this winter!
     
  19. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Fairly solid consensus of -ve IOD over winter too.
     
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  20. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    2017 was a surprisingly good season and bucked the overall trend of seasons with 7's i.e. 2007, 1997, 1987 etc.

    Purely based on my gut and no scientific evidence whatsoever, I think 2018 will be a decent season with a peak depth at Spencer's around the 2m mark but as always it's very hard to tell and the smallest of temperature changes can mean the difference between an extra 50cm of snow or 50mm of rain......
     
  21. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    I don't see the consensus anymore.
     
  22. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us
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  23. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
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  24. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Pretty sure the best seasons have been the ones that are 'leading into' an El Nino event which is what seems to be happening right now :thumbs:
     
  25. MickM

    MickM One of Us
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  26. Froff Life

    Froff Life A Local
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    Article in the Age today about the slow death of Australia's ski industry. Really invigorating reading for the start of winter :cry:
     
  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Where was this?
     
  28. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons One of Us
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    Not sure which resort, got pic off grasshoppers site. But can personally say that I skied over the cable of Sponars Tbar in Thredbo in August 1981. :thumbs:
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I wonder how that articles going for 'em now?
     
    #29 POW_hungry, Jun 19, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2018
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  30. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Seriously, F%^K the media I hate them with a passion.

    They have absolutely no idea what they are doing and are no good at anything other than scaremongering people
     
  31. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Central and Western Indian Ocean temps have taken a nosedive.

    Chances of a cool and dry July-August have jumped imo. Lucky we got a good base now.