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Predictions September 1st-5th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 25, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO not much of a system, but still a system.
    May yet develop. Dates are still a bit wobbly, EC says a little later.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Haha just posted in the BBQ thread :D AXS has a polar blast for these dates... I think something will eventuate here though.
     
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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Image not worky.
     
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    COLA chart cut and pasted direct from weatherzone. Will post again.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Possibly only visible to silver members.
     
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    fair enough. will upload via photobucket on the phone.
     
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Polar burst into mammoth ECL. Seems legit.
    [​IMG]
     
    cin, The Plowking, AJS and 3 others like this.
  9. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    By my reckoning there is one more chance of something substantial maybe a week later and then it's good night Irene. (Based on nothing other than watching the spin of the spag all winter.)
     
  10. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Err are you talking about a week later from now (this 1st-3rd system), or a week later after that (8-10th date range)?
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS "suggesting" something around the 7th...
    But that's for another thread.
     
  12. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks okay. Pressure not super low but looks better than the 10mm the precip chart is suggesting IMO.
    Could get ridged south?
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, I have a feeling it could get squashed south.
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is a bump up on the previous run IMO, hopefully start of a trend.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC showing exactly this. IMO
     
  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah right there on the 1st but gets squeezed. Hopefully that trailing high weakens a touch.
     
  19. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Looking very Westerly and cold air warming significantly across South Australia ( Weatherzone; Access for Tuesday 2 Sept (192hr)). Would need to improve significantly (peak 2 days later) to produce the goods.
    (My stab)
     
  20. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Long range forecasts all look pretty divergent for early next week... EC looks better, GFS maintains a strong but not cold zonal westerly flow, and Access-G looks rubbish.
     
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes EC looking better for the 2nd IMO

    [​IMG]
    Trouble is there is so much variation between runs at the moment.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The low is quite deep on GFS (18 UTC run), but too far south.
    [​IMG]
     
  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only fractionally though CC? The progression suggests it's peaked and is sliding away which is the issue IMO.
     
    #23 mick chopps, Aug 26, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2014
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, the models are still all over the place, so anything can happen IMO
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 UTC GFS looks wacko for this period.
    IMO
     
  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Mid North Coast looks like getting soggy again.
    IMO
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, but that's over the next couple of days.
     
  28. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just had a look at the update... WTF...
    o_O
     
  29. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00UTC is in.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    5th is interesting also, perhaps a bit warm.
    [​IMG]

    Worth extending the date range CC or another thread?
     
  30. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Spag anyone ?
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Let's see if it develops first.
     
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  32. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Looks cut off.. mid -28/32 500hpa temps. Needs a decent trough mid Australia to shape and stall that high. Fyi thats tge first time ive I've looked at a chart in weeks
     
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  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC this morning downgraded for the 1-3rd but picked up the 4-5th and running with it IMO.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks better. Models can't quite settle for next week at the moment.
     
  35. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag watch for 8/9 imo
     
  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^
    Return to winter for first half of September imo. Plenty of potential.
     
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  37. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Warm till early next week and then things are changing for the better quickly IMO
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS suddenly likes the first again.

    [​IMG]
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO GFS has very little idea what's going on beyond this weekend.
    The model is changing so much between runs, it's quite amusing.
    Even EC is having trouble tracking it.
     
  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks all over the place even to me, I imagine you must be thinking WTF with every run!
     
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  41. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Access R is covering it. see the four day chart. Looks goodo.
    [​IMG]
     
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  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Cold uppers

    [​IMG]


    Precipitation tooo
    [​IMG]
     
  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Access is about 36hrs ahead of GFS, which does not like ECL's
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00 GFS

    [​IMG]
     
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  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pressure not real low but that's a bullseye for the position of the low.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still plenty of variation in the GFS spag

    [​IMG]
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Bom 4 Chart has it hitting Monday morning. GFS has it hitting Tuesday Morning. GFS not dealing with ECL. The ECL will stall the Southern low.

    IMO
     
    #47 7wombathead, Aug 27, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 27, 2014
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    All gone this afternoon 00 UTC run
    Models are on crack, and they are all struggling with next week right at the moment.
    Absolutely no certainty beyond the 31st IMO
     
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL
    Was just looking at it and was all WTF!
    Certainly looking like one for the patented "@PlowKing 4 day rule".
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    You know when the models all vary so much from run to run, that there's a very significant amount of doubt.
    Once we see the same pattern for a few runs, and perhaps get another model to agree, we might be able to call it.