Predictions September 1st-5th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Aug 25, 2014.

  1. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    The BOM 4 day chart, if we accept as an authority at 96hrs, suggest that there is a Tasman LOW forming off the NSW South Coast. The charts are not suggesting that its slipping south. Beyond Tuesday night who knows what will happen?

    GFS will update soon
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has already updated. I've posted the results.
    GFS, IMO typically overstates the amount of moisture, while EC understates.
     
  3. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    In my experience the precipitation model that was posted almost always underestimates snow fall and overestimates rain and is always conflicting with ACCESS R and G posted by BOM.

    Its not calibrated that well, and I would not refer to it that much
     
  4. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM going for snow above 900 M in Snowey Mtns and above 1200 M in NSW CT's Tuesday
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks cold enough.
    IMO
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC tonight
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ECL is interesting. Not there on GFS.
     
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Little upgrade plus the ECL CC?
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Could give NSW a nice surprise on Thursday. IMO
    Mind you, this has only appeared on this run. Given how unstable the models have been ...
    One to watch.
     
  9. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Access-G looking just a little bit epic for Tuesday, with cold air lingering all week too.
     
  10. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Interest is piqued
     
  11. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    watch and wait :zzz:
     
  12. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Hard Yards

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    I thought it was a predictions forum!
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looking ok form Monday & Tuesday on GFS (IMO)
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Thursday looking for a short dusting, and the ECL is too far to the east.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    GFS has a miss on the thursday.
     
  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Thats a chart for a cold wollongong
     
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  17. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of swell to contend with to I figure
     
  18. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Heaviest august rain in some parts for 100 years and flooding in WA as this event passed through. Hoping the moisture content suprises as it seems cold enough.
     
  19. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM now dropped the snow level by 100 M to 800 M Snowey Mtns and 1100 M in CT's on Tuesday :)
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    4th looking quite tidy on EC this afternoon.

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Hard Yards

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    Seeing this is a predictions forum I'm going to put it out there, 30 cents worth by friday lunch time.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd say 15-20cm for Tuesday and 10cm more on Thursday on today's EC run
    IMO
     
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  23. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I am struggling to see more than 15cm this week. Too much of the precipitation will occur before the freeze level drops tomorrow.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I agree, it's touch and go.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC not really liking it today. Nothing much past tuesday.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Buller might do it tough with this one.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest GFS and BOM charts
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    IMO 10-20cm. 10cm in Victoria, 20cm NSW (on the back of the moisture that comes through on Tuesday)
     
  27. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM has raised the snow level to 1000M Snowey Mtn's and 1200 M CT's
    See sawing.
     
  28. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I actually like this. May be a bit more moisture in the atmosphere.