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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Sep 2, 2014.
This has been looking promising for a few days now.
Are we predicting snow overnight and bright sunshine during the days?
following - vested interest - buller 12-14th
following - vested interest - PB 12-14th
following - vested interest - Thredbo 12-13th
Following - vested interest.....PB......rest of season
Following - vested interest - I like snow.
Stay on topic.
Dammit, vested interest as well!
Not liking it this morning on GFS - looks more like being rained out rather than snow. AXS thinks a wandering cold pool might help, but looks like it might be better for that weekend.
Because somebody needs to reference the topic du jour...
Flat on EC 12UTC this morning. Warm on GFS 12UTC this morning.
Yep, a bit ugly today IMO
I think it will come good.
Spag looks flatter as well.
Fingers crossed. I do like the look of the buildup on the last chart of the BOM 4 day synoptic - suggestive of a spring freight train.
Still changing significantly from run to run on GFS.
This afternoon shows a little on the 9th, but potentially a whole lot more on the 11th. IMO
I predict will be wet NW Tuesday , tyical scenario pre frontal,
till early Wednesday morning where we be saved by the hook and wandering cold pool .
let's split the difference and say the 10th
Looks a tad zonal, westerly. IMO
Regardless. It looks like a winter shape. After all shakes out we are in a better place than the last four weeks. The nodes actually
Look quite shaped
Latest GFS run (18UTC)
IMO - it looks like the 9th will be wet below 2000m, 11th looks like it will bring snow, but not a lot and 13th could bring a dusting too.
EC is quite similar to GFS. IMO
11th might be slightly better
Yeah looking at that, and the setup on the BOM 4day charts, I'm seeing plenty of prefrontal rain compared to relatively less snow on tail end.
Potential for good snowfall - after lots of rain.
Soo I predict Interschool Nats at Perisher on the 11th is not going to be real pleasant.
Yep. Memories of watching SB regionals in the pouring rain.....
I was a gate Marshall for BX . 99 competitors remember counting down ....predicting I was not going to get warmer due to combo windchill and moisture .
Just heard on the Triple M news that the snowfields are expecting a "good dump of snow, just in time for the start of the school holidays, which is sure to extend the season".
Its on folks
i'm still a believer....
Classic spring set up lots of rain followed by lots of snow. Pre frontal warmth and wind is a worry.IMO
stay on topic
but this year the pre-frontal rain has been very very low, so fingers crossed that some of the pre-frontal will be snow up high.
The system is a significant southern ocean storm event, so I expect lots of snow
I expect plenty of rain below 2000m (9th) followed some snow on the 11th. IMO
PS: GFS got the precipitation totals pretty right with the last system IMO
extending dates on this thread?
Potential to be very snowy
I was just a spectator for BX but officialling for SBGS. Luckily our division isn't that big! We spent the downtime in the car with the heater running trying to warm up/dry out!
One thing thats not is question is moisture! Its just about how much before it turns to snow. Actually think later, maybe 12th 13th is a better chance. In my humble opinion
If the Bom 4 Day Chart is anything to go by the pre- frontal passes harmlessly to the south west on Monday, followed by some cold frontal action on the 9th, 10th. Reminds me off Spring 2000. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/chart...00009021200.gif,IDX0102.200009021800.gif,IDX0
some snow CC on the 11th???
Planning the possible hike in times for Bogong that day..
It's that 2nd front you can see on the 8th that will be the problem IMO
Thats not really true. There was at least 25 cm of snow, and a lot more at 2100m or 35mm on Rams Head. Even Perisher, which is in a rain shadow for the 2nd part of the event recorded 31 mm at 1600m. I found places that were wind loaded and they were 60 cm deep out near rams head.
This chart proves that most of the precipitation for this event is prefrontal rain. Which is of concern. In terms of after the 8th and in to the 12th the dynamics and morphology of the synoptic charts suggest a major polar low is forming. So I expect the charts to upgrade the cold air uppers in favor of snow, after some prefrontal rain. How much rain???? , but 50mm is possible based on chart above.
This situation if it comes off is of major concern. Very Zonal. I don't like.
I have a feeling that the forecast will get better, but the season has to end eventually.
9th is a concern, but we'll get something back on the 11th. Swings and roundabouts.
Well I have been in the Kiewa and Ovens Valleys all week rafting- all rivers and streams bloody low and even the farmers are commenting on how their dams being low for this time of year.
Vic needs a good drenching so bring on the pre frontal event and let the rivers run.
Sorry a lot of feedback today.
Yesterday was pretty good out Rams Head, The Oz Sun is so powerful but.