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Predictions September 9th - 12th System

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Sep 2, 2014.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This has been looking promising for a few days now.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Spag likes
     
    nfip and Majikthise like this.
  3. sixty_eight

    sixty_eight One of Us

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    Are we predicting snow overnight and bright sunshine during the days?
     
  4. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    following - vested interest - buller 12-14th
     
  5. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    following - vested interest - PB 12-14th
     
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  6. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    following - vested interest - Thredbo 12-13th
     
  7. Normo

    Normo Mostly Harmless Ski Pass: Gold

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    Following - vested interest.....PB......rest of season:D
     
  8. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Following - vested interest - I like snow.
     
  9. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    I agree.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  11. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Dammit, vested interest as well! :D

    Not liking it this morning on GFS - looks more like being rained out rather than snow. AXS thinks a wandering cold pool might help, but looks like it might be better for that weekend.
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Because somebody needs to reference the topic du jour...
    Flat on EC 12UTC this morning. Warm on GFS 12UTC this morning.
    IMO
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yep, a bit ugly today IMO
     
  14. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think it will come good.
     
    Bluebear likes this.
  15. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Spag looks flatter as well.

    Fingers crossed. I do like the look of the buildup on the last chart of the BOM 4 day synoptic - suggestive of a spring freight train.
     
  16. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still changing significantly from run to run on GFS.
    This afternoon shows a little on the 9th, but potentially a whole lot more on the 11th. IMO
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict will be wet NW Tuesday , tyical scenario pre frontal,
    [​IMG]

    till early Wednesday morning where we be saved by the hook and wandering cold pool .

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    let's split the difference and say the 10th :)
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG]

    Looks a tad zonal, westerly. IMO
     
  21. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Regardless. It looks like a winter shape. After all shakes out we are in a better place than the last four weeks. The nodes actually
    Look quite shaped
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Latest GFS run (18UTC)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    11th
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    IMO - it looks like the 9th will be wet below 2000m, 11th looks like it will bring snow, but not a lot and 13th could bring a dusting too.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC is quite similar to GFS. IMO
    11th might be slightly better

    [​IMG]
     
    7wombathead and Donza like this.
  24. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Yeah looking at that, and the setup on the BOM 4day charts, I'm seeing plenty of prefrontal rain compared to relatively less snow on tail end.
     
  25. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Location:
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    Potential for good snowfall - after lots of rain.
     
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  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Soo I predict Interschool Nats at Perisher on the 11th is not going to be real pleasant.
    Again.
     
  27. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Yep. Memories of watching SB regionals in the pouring rain.....
     
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was a gate Marshall for BX . 99 competitors remember counting down ....predicting I was not going to get warmer due to combo windchill and moisture .
     
  29. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just heard on the Triple M news that the snowfields are expecting a "good dump of snow, just in time for the start of the school holidays, which is sure to extend the season".
    Its on folks
     
  30. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i'm still a believer....
     
  31. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Classic spring set up lots of rain followed by lots of snow. Pre frontal warmth and wind is a worry.IMO
     
  32. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    FIFY
     
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  33. Mattdejong

    Mattdejong Hard Yards

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    marketing hype?
     
  34. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    stay on topic
     
  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I agree.

    but this year the pre-frontal rain has been very very low, so fingers crossed that some of the pre-frontal will be snow up high.

    The system is a significant southern ocean storm event, so I expect lots of snow
     
    Bluebear likes this.
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I expect plenty of rain below 2000m (9th) followed some snow on the 11th. IMO

    [​IMG]

    PS: GFS got the precipitation totals pretty right with the last system IMO ;)
     
    Bluebear, Majikthise and mick chopps like this.
  38. Chondro

    Chondro One of Us

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    extending dates on this thread?
     
  39. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Potential to be very snowy
     
  40. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    I was just a spectator for BX but officialling for SBGS. Luckily our division isn't that big! We spent the downtime in the car with the heater running trying to warm up/dry out!
     
  41. mattblackrs4

    mattblackrs4 Hard Yards

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    One thing thats not is question is moisture! Its just about how much before it turns to snow. Actually think later, maybe 12th 13th is a better chance. In my humble opinion
     
  42. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Bluebear likes this.
  43. Bluebear

    Bluebear Hard Yards

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    some snow CC on the 11th???
    Planning the possible hike in times for Bogong that day..
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  45. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Thats not really true. There was at least 25 cm of snow, and a lot more at 2100m or 35mm on Rams Head. Even Perisher, which is in a rain shadow for the 2nd part of the event recorded 31 mm at 1600m. I found places that were wind loaded and they were 60 cm deep out near rams head.
     
    #45 7wombathead, Sep 4, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2014
  46. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This chart proves that most of the precipitation for this event is prefrontal rain. Which is of concern. In terms of after the 8th and in to the 12th the dynamics and morphology of the synoptic charts suggest a major polar low is forming. So I expect the charts to upgrade the cold air uppers in favor of snow, after some prefrontal rain. How much rain???? , but 50mm is possible based on chart above.
     
  47. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    This situation if it comes off is of major concern. Very Zonal. I don't like.

    I have a feeling that the forecast will get better, but the season has to end eventually.

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    9th is a concern, but we'll get something back on the 11th. Swings and roundabouts.

    IMO.
     
  49. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well I have been in the Kiewa and Ovens Valleys all week rafting- all rivers and streams bloody low and even the farmers are commenting on how their dams being low for this time of year.
    Vic needs a good drenching so bring on the pre frontal event and let the rivers run.
     
  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Yep

    Sorry a lot of feedback today.

    Yesterday was pretty good out Rams Head, The Oz Sun is so powerful but.