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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Sep 2, 2014.
Yeah the 9th is a bit drastic for rain. Such a complex low. Who knows?
Not too much change in the models overnight IMO
GFS and EC fairly consistent for the 9th now.
11th is a tad weaker on EC.
GFS suggesting an ECL which might drag the moisture & cold up for an extra day on the 12th.
EC and GFS diverge from the 12th on though. EC suggesting something perhaps on the 13th or 14th, but hardly concrete at this stage.
"A high pressure system will control our weather into early next week, and temperatures warm up significantly as the centre of the high moves eastwards. We can expect a stretch of dry weather, plenty of sunshine - and light winds for the weekend. Hot and gusty northerly winds develop on Monday with the high further out to our east.
Cold fronts are building south of Western Australia, and once that high is out of the way, they will cross the southeast of the country. The first is on Tuesday, and this will bring rain, as the atmosphere is far too warm. There is moisture pouring in from Queensland, thanks to a trough, and this will make it heavy rain on Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is the slight chance that it could fall as snow above 1800 metres, after an hour or two of rain.
The next front follows on Wednesday night - and this one is cold enough for alpine snow. The trailing high will move too far east, so that this system won't bring as much snow as it could have. We should see 10 to 20 cm though, on Thursday and Friday."
Still looking soggy on Tuesday.
I'm not sure there's much more than 10cm on Thursday. IMO
BoM calling snow above 1600 metres. Not seeing it, but we'll dodge a bullet if it does come off.
BOM 4day charts now including warm fronts
Do not like
Can see anything but pain below 2000m for the 9th. IMO
Tuesday's forecast has me putting the skis away for the season. Time to dust off the golf clubs and get the water ski out.
Perhaps a slight chance of snow down to 1800m has that 500hPa temp falls on the tail end of the rain and moves through from the SW. IMO
At the whim of a wandering cold pool at 500hPa. Quite possible we will see snow for a short period while it's around.
Thursday's front looking weaker by the run IMO
EC suggesting 30-40mm rain for Tuesday IMO
Thursday is fizzing out as well.
Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds
for people in the South West and Central forecast districts
Issued at 3:42 pm EST on Sunday 7 September 2014.
A cold front will approach Victoria during Monday and will enter the west of the State on Monday night.
Damaging winds of 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast to develop over parts of the South West district during Monday afternoon and extend into the Central district during Monday evening.
BOM 4 day Chart looks great. Sattelite looks epic. Just need the cold air uppers to fall.
Moisture aligning with col-dish uppers. Snow level 1500m, but lots of it
Old school wagering I'd about pay that for some goodness Tuesday night and beyond.
Can we slow it down to thursday night .
Can't see it TBH.
00 UTC GFS shows warm uppers and warm 850hPas
500 hPa temps of -20 and 850 hPa temps of +5C aren't going to get it done, cold air moves in far to late.
Thursday could deliver a dusting.
Monaro and rivers looking full as a comparison.
BOM going with < 25mm of rain from tomorrow then a dusting on thursday. Seems pretty likely to me.
I do see it being a bit colder tomorrow than predicted, looking at the fetch on the 4 day chart and the cold air near Perth, but I don't see snow to 1500 or even 1700m. Main range maybe.
I'm more interested now in sunny weather on the weekend, but it looks a bit confused beyond friday.
Yeh, that's how I see it too (BOM prediction). IMO.
It seemed anything more than a dusting, for Vic resorts at least, was going to be a long shot, sadly.
A week ago, with Melbourne's forecasts for this week ranging from around 16 - 18/20, it seemed to me that snow was unlikely. I'm not sure it ever snows at Buller when Melbourne is forecast to be that warm, does it? Snow is likely for anything below 13 for Melbourne, while 14 is borderline, then 15 and over is nasty stuff. Generally.
I predict I'm about to put on my mourning suit
...... Oh, and I'll be ecstatic if I'm wrong..... Because I'll be skiing at Buller on Friday, with a grin from ear to ear
It's snowed at Buller level plenty of times with Melbourne forecast at around 16-17 degrees, but that tends to happen outside of winter.
I'm heading up to Falls Creek for the first time this weekend - according to current GFS they're going to get decimated. BoM perhaps not as bad, based on the current snow reports I would imagine they would survive 20-25mm of rain as long as it's not too warm.
That's good to hear, and something to hang onto in that case. I assume that would be pretty wet snow? Either way, any would be better than rain. I'm keeping the fingers crossed!
I predict I'm up for micro SIC Friday @dawooduck if your around Guthega way ...
Okay sounds good. Friday is free ski day at PB somewhere. Will PM.
Only hope if the cold uppers slide over the ALPs tonight. The second part of the front Wednesday morning looks more promising. Cold air has hit Esperance (11c) so I am reckoning the second front is gonna deliver for the main range.