All models are now showing a system arriving Friday next week. At this stage looks to be short and sweet but I think 20-30cm is likely NSW (Perisher).
This date range is not immune to the seasonal trend IMO. No shortage of pre-frontal thanks to a peak over WA on the 7th. The frontal peak has been downgraded on recent runs and I think it will likely see it inflict more harm than good if models remain as they are. I see a lot of rain here for the resorts TBH. Main Range will do ok out of it. GFS EC
I definitely like the look of that wind. A bit of tropical moisture but looking alright for some snow IMO
v/cold looking this one,should be easier to track on satellite. Cut off complex low with multi embedded vorts.
Outside this date range, but a byproduct of the said front has EC overly bullish about the cold air here (-32 @500mb West of the divide). Anomaly looks good, although at risk of being cold but dry IMO. Could be NSW treat if that deepening trough coastal trough comes off (Sun-Wed). I might add GFS doesn't overly agree or entertain this cold injection at all.
Maybe 25-35mm, 10-15cm IMO. Saturday morning snow down to 1300m, I wouldn't think much accumulating below 1400m though. Sun/Mon maybe 10-15cm falling down to 1100m but still a fair way out.
Broader but not nearly as cold on GFS. Progging falls of 40-60mm in 1012-1014hPa. GFS seems a little off to me. More baroclinic on EC.
EC has firmed up on the second system here over the past few runs making it seem more possible - but the weak ridge to the north is a slight worry. Here's my latest: This front should bring a band of rain (15 to 30 mm) then snow (15 to 30 cm) when the cold air catches up. The change over is on Friday afternoon, then it dries up later on Saturday. The next cold front arrives on Sunday, and this could have a decent wedge of cold air in behind it. Current EC modelling has snow falling in Ballarat on Monday. Alpine snow begins later on Sunday and persists into Tuesday.
I'm thinking there will be more rain earlier in this system (up to 50mm) then about the amount of snow to 1300ish meters that others are predicting.
Yeah it splits Pow,and yeah CC 12th looking ok. 12TH looks the same parcel as the 9th piled up against the H ridge to the East.
Access-G looks rather chilly at 192-216 Hrs out. Close to the coldest system all winter (i.e. -5C at 850 HPa), but probably only 15-20cm or so.
A few days ago this was looking like a disaster, now it's looking like the cold air blob that could. Yes there will be some rain, but we could end up breaking even afterward IMO. I could end up with a fresh cover at Buller on Sunday
GFS not mucking around with the pre-frontal. @Vermillion on the ball here perhaps. Some very heavy stuff progged. GFS 00Z
Low-level snow mentioned for Monday morning is looking less likely, as 00Z suggests ridging across the SE keeping the cold air south.
yep, just wanted to see this afternoons runs to see if the 12th still came in to play, which it appears it does on EC.
Major downgrade this morning, both models virtually reverting to how they had it progged last week. lets see if it bounces next run. 12Z EC 12Z GFS
Rainfall totals look more like 30-50mm today, instead of 50mm+ like it was last night. Follow-up on the 12th looks solid though. I dont like to predict snowfall amounts on these kinds of systems, if you think you can pick it then good luck to you but IMO it's more luck than good forecasting.
