Predictions September 9th - 14th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 3, 2016.

  1. GTB

    GTB Dedicated Member

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    All models are now showing a system arriving Friday next week.

    At this stage looks to be short and sweet but I think 20-30cm is likely NSW (Perisher).

    :)
     
    #1 GTB, Sep 3, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2016
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    This date range is not immune to the seasonal trend IMO. No shortage of pre-frontal thanks to a peak over WA on the 7th. The frontal peak has been downgraded on recent runs and I think it will likely see it inflict more harm than good if models remain as they are.

    I see a lot of rain here for the resorts TBH. Main Range will do ok out of it.

    GFS
    [​IMG]

    EC
    [​IMG]
     
  3. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    Looks another arctic cutoff vort with good circulation down to the surface, sw flow looks good.
     
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  4. The Fallen

    The Fallen Well-Known Member

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    Doubling down on another wanderer jeff? :cool:

    Hells yeah.
     
  5. PowWow

    PowWow Active Member

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    5-10mm Friday, 5-10cm Saturday for Perisher. Everywhere else gonna suffer again. IMO
     
  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I definitely like the look of that wind. A bit of tropical moisture but looking alright for some snow IMO
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It seems farmer joe has his cows on the wrong side of the fence.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    spewing
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey Dedicated Member
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    Looks like we are at the mercy of another cut off/wandering cold pool.
     
  12. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    v/cold looking this one,should be easier to track on satellite.


    [​IMG]
    Cut off complex low with multi embedded vorts.


    [​IMG]
     
    #12 jeffx, Sep 4, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Outside this date range, but a byproduct of the said front has EC overly bullish about the cold air here (-32 @500mb West of the divide). Anomaly looks good, although at risk of being cold but dry IMO.
    Could be NSW treat if that deepening trough coastal trough comes off (Sun-Wed).
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    I might add GFS doesn't overly agree or entertain this cold injection at all.
     
    #13 POW_hungry, Sep 4, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS tuning in. Cold pool still running late.
    Sunday follow-up looking ok.
     
  16. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    rain then snow. how much and how high do you think?
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Maybe 25-35mm, 10-15cm IMO.
    Saturday morning snow down to 1300m, I wouldn't think much accumulating below 1400m though.
    Sun/Mon maybe 10-15cm falling down to 1100m but still a fair way out.
     
    #17 POW_hungry, Sep 5, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2016
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  18. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    18zGFS @9z/9th expands the cold pool,blocking H due East.

    @06 arriving

    [​IMG]
     
    #18 jeffx, Sep 5, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2016
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Broader but not nearly as cold on GFS. Progging falls of 40-60mm in 1012-1014hPa. GFS seems a little off to me.
    More baroclinic on EC.
     
  20. janesweather

    janesweather Dedicated Member

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    EC has firmed up on the second system here over the past few runs making it seem more possible - but the weak ridge to the north is a slight worry.

    Here's my latest:

    This front should bring a band of rain (15 to 30 mm) then snow (15 to 30 cm) when the cold air catches up. The change over is on Friday afternoon, then it dries up later on Saturday.

    The next cold front arrives on Sunday, and this could have a decent wedge of cold air in behind it. Current EC modelling has snow falling in Ballarat on Monday. Alpine snow begins later on Sunday and persists into Tuesday.

     
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  21. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Hmmmm. Vibe.

    Peak may yet to be?
     
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  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I'm thinking there will be more rain earlier in this system (up to 50mm) then about the amount of snow to 1300ish meters that others are predicting.
     
  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Looking better every run.
     
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  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Yr No Perisher Village just for the records
    plus 15 cm on Monday and colder for the week after.
     
  25. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    [​IMG]
    Nice SW flow@700mb i like low level falls with this if it verify.

    [​IMG]


    Saturation
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    We got a split in the jet @jeffx ??
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC suggests a little more on the 12th
    IMO
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Yeah it splits Pow,and yeah CC 12th looking ok.
    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
    12TH looks the same parcel as the 9th piled up against the H ridge to the East.
     
  29. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    Access-G looks rather chilly at 192-216 Hrs out. Close to the coldest system all winter (i.e. -5C at 850 HPa), but probably only 15-20cm or so.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    -34 @ 500hPa. Yep super-cold.
     
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  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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  32. ice_man

    ice_man Dedicated Member

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    A few days ago this was looking like a disaster, now it's looking like the cold air blob that could. Yes there will be some rain, but we could end up breaking even afterward IMO. I could end up with a fresh cover at Buller on Sunday :)
     
  33. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    4 day shape looks really good.

    [​IMG]
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS not mucking around with the pre-frontal. @Vermillion on the ball here perhaps. Some very heavy stuff progged.
    GFS 00Z
    [​IMG]
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Seems pretty locked in on EC00Z
    [​IMG]
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Low-level snow mentioned for Monday morning is looking less likely, as 00Z suggests ridging across the SE keeping the cold air south.
    [​IMG]
     
    #36 POW_hungry, Sep 5, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2016
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Still looking cold on Monday. Snow below resort bases IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
  38. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Looks around 10cm max to me at this stage Perisher and Main Range.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Might be worth opening the dates to include 13th SEP @Claude Cat ?
     
  40. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Easy to follow.

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    ec over the 4days.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    yep, just wanted to see this afternoons runs to see if the 12th still came in to play, which it appears it does on EC.
     
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  42. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    looks bullish with the vort, first sign GFS may struggle with this.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    It doesn't look too bad though IMO . Just a bit of Windhold across the resorts
     
  44. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Ens on track, look again in two days.:)
    [​IMG]
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Major downgrade this morning, both models virtually reverting to how they had it progged last week. lets see if it bounces next run.
    12Z EC
    [​IMG]

    12Z GFS
    [​IMG]
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Monday still looking ok. GFS and EC suggest Tasman low.
    [​IMG]
     
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  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    Wow that high progged to setup in the bight suggests the seasons are changing IMO
     
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  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Rainfall totals look more like 30-50mm today, instead of 50mm+ like it was last night. Follow-up on the 12th looks solid though.

    I dont like to predict snowfall amounts on these kinds of systems, if you think you can pick it then good luck to you but IMO it's more luck than good forecasting.
     
  49. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    I like this.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  50. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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