I like the 2nd part better as its a larger cold pool. This first cold break looks to be localized, but may deliver up high.
EC Cold pool → (Ull-vort) wedging in on the western edge of the front over VIC and dump. Then likely drop ↴S and bomb off NE tassie.
GFS has really left the 9th. But its fluctuating a lot between runs so may come back. GFS also came up with something unusual for the 13th, which I would froth on if it came off.
Yep looks like the event for later this week is now a bit of a fizzer. We look forward to early next week..
Yeah, GFS00Z has the uppers as still pretty cold for late on the 9th. Still fear they'll arrive after the fact (rain).
Sheesh, she's frigid. Canadian certainly has the colder air more aligned with some moisture. CMC/GEM12Z
I wonder if it has a lot to do with geo-potential height calibration? These are calibrated and adjusted in the models on a seasonal basis. Just wondering if any one can confirm here. But yeah i like the vorticity chart, should get things happening enough to get snow. The front does look wicked west of WA.
Few more of 00z run to compliment CC's post. Depicts the cut/off ULL vort over the Alps, curve + outflow on the sim. Ayidayida tats all folks.
So I'm a bit thrown by the models today. Downgrades this morning but everyone still seems bullish tonight. What's the concensus?
Friday's still there but low confidence in it doing much good - there will be lots of rain followed by cool drying air IMO. Some good mechanics progged but not all the ducks are in a row to deliver anything substantial, that's how I feel about it. I think Verm put it well this morning, models are a bit hot/cold on it so it's too dicey to call. Sunday night through Tuesday looks like our best bet for cold air and top-up showers. Still got 15-20 cents here, I think.
Those shots are awesome. You can make out the flooding on the Bogan River and Macquarie RIver. And the coutryside looks awesome.
That's bold of BOM given it's +160hrs out. Modeled off AXS, which I kinda feel is a couple of steps behind the other models at the moment. This is looking more and more less likely IMO.
A September to Remember? Perhaps not just yet, but EC is mostly on board. As for this week here, going to be flooding in the local rivers I suspect with a strong likelihood of 50mm+ rains....
IMO this is just looking like a rain event on Friday and Saturday. Perhaps a little snow about 1900m later. But the 12th & 13th is looking a lot stronger IMO and is quite promising as snow event.
Jane's forecast is inline with what you think CC. http://www.janebunn.net/snow-forecast/ I'am sticking staunch with snow over the ranges late on the 9th early into the10th am,live vapor-satellite and 700mb cold injection progs are suggestive to me there will be frontogenesis .
Hence the eyes on the vorticity plots. I see where you're going here. I am eager to see if it pans out.
No surprise's you are obviously astute ,access is almost there on the plot below one more isobar would be even better.
Vic BOM getting early with warnings for tomorrow. SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL for people in the South West, Wimmera and parts of the Mallee Forecast Districts. Issued at 4:05 pm Wednesday, 7 September 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: A cold front over the Bight will weaken and slip southeastwards as it approaches western Victoria on Thursday. A stronger front and associated upper trough south of Western Australia will reach western Victoria late Thursday and cross the remainder of the State during Friday. HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop across parts of the Southwest and Wimmera districts on Thursday afternoon and extend across parts of the Mallee on Thursday evening. 24 hour totals of 30 to 40mm are forecast, with isolated higher falls of 50 to 70mm. EVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS for people in parts of the Central, South West, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts. Issued at 4:04 pm Wednesday, 7 September 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: A cold front will weaken just to the west of Victoria early on Thursday. DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/h with peak gusts of around 90 km/h are likely to develop across elevated parts of the Southwest, Central, North Central and Wimmera districts after midnight tonight. Damaging winds are expected to ease by midday Thursday. Locations which may be affected include Stawell, Hamilton, Maryborough, Castlemaine, Kyneton and Ballarat.
A raft of flood watches issued too. The following Watches/Warnings are current: Minor Flood Warning for the Kiewa River Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra, Dandenong And Bunyip) Flood Watch for North East Victoria (Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa, Ovens and King Catchments) Flood Watch for the Campaspe, Loddon, Avoca and Wimmera Basins Flood Watch for the Glenelg and Hopkins Basins Flood Watch for the Goulburn and Broken Basins
Week, after week of remarkable rainfall totals this winter. Interior totals have been impressive as well.
As much as this rain will stuff my work up friday, I like it. Thank goodness the last few 'dry' years in Victoria were nothing like 06-late 09. Love a wet spring and weekly/fortnightly summer rain events here in Victoria. Hope we get them.
Looking good Monday through Wednesday. With an upgrade on both models this morning IMO, with the deepening of a Tasman low off deep South Coast NSW. If that positioning verifies (and stalls as models suggest) we're in for some big totals.
The transition in 2010-2011 was similar to this, so hopefully we get that again this year. People with more brains than me seem to think we will.
It looks good, but after a big rain event I am always a little skeptical about the snow level from the next front. I feel it's usually a little higher than you think due to lingering moisture.
