Hard to say how much. Closed cell progged to form in Western Vic on Tuesday but that's not a given. It could be anything from 15-45cm (minimum of a foot for NSW resorts IMO) depending on where it lands and stalls. NSW resorts will do best here in the NW flow. I see FL heights fluctuating throughout Tuesday/Wednesdays so expect rain at times, throughout.
Hmm, I'm off to the mountains (NSW) on a supposedly non-ski trip later this week. Maybe pack the ski boots after all ?
This system and the next one after it seem to be seriously affected by stalling in the bight and peaking too early, then sucking in too much tropical influence. The net result, much warmer moisture for us in the SE.
Agree. Case all season really. Early peaking followed by either the SE slide, major breakdown, or the above. Aside from some unusually cold system's from the west early in season, which were cause for optimism. Tropical just hasn't combined with a cold system all season for Mega dump. Season of almost. Olympic cycle broken, though far from the worst season. Best winter in Victoria for surf in years at least. Have feasted. Other thread date range looks potential.
Why then does yr.no and BOM say snow on all days. Jane not much rain but up to 30cm, and the Frog seems to be having a bet each way.
Latest updates positive for me. Less pre-frontal rain, arriving later as well and the cold air not far behind it. Maybe 50/50 mix then good snow on the backside. Another knife edge, but this looks healthy, tipping more snow for NSW for me
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL For people in the Mallee and parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts. Issued at 4:21 pm Monday, 12 September 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: A surface trough over Victoria and an upper level trough over the bight will develop into a low pressure system over western Victoria later on Tuesday. The low will then move slowly eastwards across the State during Wednesday then over the Tasman Sea during Thursday. HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over parts of the Mallee, Northern Country, Wimmera, North Central, Central and Southwest districts on Monday evening and during Tuesday. 24 hour totals of 20 to 50mm are forecast, however isolated higher falls of 70mm are possible along the ranges. Thunderstorms may also result in locally higher falls. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Bendigo, Maryborough, Kyneton and Ballarat.
Wednesday 14 September Summary Min 1 Max 7 Rain then snow. Windy. Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm Chance of any rain: 90% Alpine Area area Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, tending to snow later. Winds northerly 40 to 60 km/h tending northwesterly in the middle of the day then decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the late afternoon. Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High] Thursday 15 September Summary Min -2 Max 3 Snow. Windy. Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm Chance of any rain: 90% Alpine Area area Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h turning westerly 45 to 65 km/h during the day then decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h during the evening. Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High] Friday 16 September Summary Min -1 Max 4 Snow at times. Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 70% Alpine Area area Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain or snow. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the day then becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon. Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High] Saturday 17 September Summary Min -1 Max 6 Showers or snow at times. Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm Chance of any rain: 70% Alpine Area area Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers or snow. Light winds. Sunday 18 September Summary Min 0 Max 5 Snow showers. Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 80% Alpine Area area Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h during the day. Monday 19 September Summary Min -1 Max 5 Showers or snow at times. Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm Chance of any rain: 60% Alpine Area area Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts. Issued at 10:17 am Tuesday, 13 September 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: A surface trough over Victoria and an upper level trough over the Bight will develop into a low pressure system over western Victoria later today. The low will then move slowly eastwards across the State during Wednesday then over the Tasman Sea during Thursday. HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over parts of the Mallee, Northern Country, Wimmera, North Central, Central and Southwest districts during Tuesday. Widespread 24 hours rainfall totals of 20 to 50mm are forecast across parts of western and central Victoria, with isolated higher falls of 60 to 70mm possible. Thunderstorms may also result in heavier falls. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Bendigo, Maryborough, Kyneton and Ballarat. The highest totals in the 24 hours to 9am today include: -32mm at Avalon Station -32mm at Charlton -29mm at Warracknabeal -25mm at Birchip
Have to give Jane the benefit of the doubt re: Weds -Thurs but IMO she looked a bit silly on the news last night standing next to a patch of chopped up man made snow at Mt B. Hope she's on the ball for later in the week.
forecasting snow falls this year has been a dark art particularly with these troughs that peak over SA and wandering cold pools that are nigh impossible to predict where they wander to and whether they fizzle and pizzle
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL For people in parts of the East Gippsland, Mallee and North East Forecast Districts. Issued at 10:41 am Wednesday, 14 September 2016. WEATHER SITUATION: A low pressure system south of Adelaide will move slowly southeastwards and weaken later today as another low forms near northeast Tasmania tonight. HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over parts of the Northeast and Gippsland districts, mainly about Alpine areas. The rain will ease this afternoon, however isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop. DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/hr with peak gusts to 90 to 100 km/h are possible over northern parts of the Mallee district this afternoon and are likely to redevelop over Alpine parts of the Northeast and Gippsland districts tonight. Locations which may be affected include Falls Creek, Mt Hotham and Mildura. Severe weather is no longer occurring in the Central, South West, Northern Country and North Central districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED.
