Predictions September 9th - 14th

Discussion in 'Weather' started by GTB, Sep 3, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Hard to say how much. Closed cell progged to form in Western Vic on Tuesday but that's not a given. It could be anything from 15-45cm (minimum of a foot for NSW resorts IMO) depending on where it lands and stalls. NSW resorts will do best here in the NW flow.
    I see FL heights fluctuating throughout Tuesday/Wednesdays so expect rain at times, throughout.
     
  2. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    Just looks like a great big heap of r....n to me.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC 00Z
    [​IMG]

    GFS 00Z
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

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    ABC weather report tonight forecasting snow all week. Should be an interesting week for sure...
     
  5. Kimski

    Kimski Well-Known Member

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    Hmm, I'm off to the mountains (NSW) on a supposedly non-ski trip later this week. Maybe pack the ski boots after all ?
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Always.
    Regardless.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  8. Mils

    Mils Dedicated Member

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    So what are the models saying now for the rest of this week?

    We getting wet? Freshies? Or nothing?
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    o_O
    Both.
    As above.
     
  10. loweee

    loweee Dedicated Member

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    Wet freshies
     
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    This system and the next one after it seem to be seriously affected by stalling in the bight and peaking too early, then sucking in too much tropical influence. The net result, much warmer moisture for us in the SE.
     
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  12. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture
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    boooooooooooooooooooo! :)
     
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Agree.
    Case all season really.
    Early peaking followed by either the SE slide, major breakdown, or the above.
    Aside from some unusually cold system's from the west early in season, which were cause for optimism.
    Tropical just hasn't combined with a cold system all season for Mega dump.
    Season of almost.
    Olympic cycle broken, though far from the worst season.
    Best winter in Victoria for surf in years at least. Have feasted.
    Other thread date range looks potential.
     
    #163 The Plowking, Sep 12, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2016
  14. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    Why then does yr.no and BOM say snow on all days. Jane not much rain but up to 30cm, and the Frog seems to be having a bet each way.
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Maybe need to update the date range for this one.

    Looks chunky like a punky.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Stall 'aint a bad thing as long as advection doesn't overrule.
    Yr.No for Perisher.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    We could just about merge the two prediction threads together ;)
     
  18. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Groundcooler....
     
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  19. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa Dedicated Member

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    Latest updates positive for me.

    Less pre-frontal rain, arriving later as well and the cold air not far behind it. Maybe 50/50 mix then good snow on the backside.

    Another knife edge, but this looks healthy, tipping more snow for NSW for me :)
     
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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the Mallee and parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 4:21 pm Monday, 12 September 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A surface trough over Victoria and an upper level trough over the bight will develop into a low pressure system over western Victoria later on Tuesday. The low will then move slowly eastwards across the State during Wednesday then over the Tasman Sea during Thursday.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over parts of the Mallee, Northern Country, Wimmera, North Central, Central and Southwest districts on Monday evening and during Tuesday.

    24 hour totals of 20 to 50mm are forecast, however isolated higher falls of 70mm are possible along the ranges. Thunderstorms may also result in locally higher falls.

    Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Bendigo, Maryborough, Kyneton and Ballarat.

     
  21. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    That's the right spot for decent rain
     
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  22. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
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    Wednesday 14 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 1
    Max 7
    Rain then snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 20 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of rain, tending to snow later. Winds northerly 40 to 60 km/h tending northwesterly in the middle of the day then decreasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the late afternoon.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:40 am to 2:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

    Thursday 15 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -2
    Max 3
    Snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 15 to 25 mm
    Chance of any rain: 90% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow, most likely in the morning and afternoon. Winds northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h turning westerly 45 to 65 km/h during the day then decreasing to 25 to 40 km/h during the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:20 am to 3:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

    Friday 16 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 4
    Snow at times.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of rain or snow. Winds west to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the day then becoming westerly 15 to 20 km/h during the afternoon.

    Sun protection recommended from 9:30 am to 2:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 6 [High]

    Saturday 17 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 6
    Showers or snow at times.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers or snow. Light winds.

    Sunday 18 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 0
    Max 5
    Snow showers.
    Possible rainfall: 3 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwest to northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming northwesterly 25 to 30 km/h during the day.

    Monday 19 September
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 5
    Showers or snow at times.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of snow showers. Winds west to northwesterly 25 to 35 km/h.
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in the Mallee, Wimmera and parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country and North Central Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:17 am Tuesday, 13 September 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A surface trough over Victoria and an upper level trough over the Bight will develop into a low pressure system over western Victoria later today. The low will then move slowly eastwards across the State during Wednesday then over the Tasman Sea during Thursday.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over parts of the Mallee, Northern Country, Wimmera, North Central, Central and Southwest districts during Tuesday.

    Widespread 24 hours rainfall totals of 20 to 50mm are forecast across parts of western and central Victoria, with isolated higher falls of 60 to 70mm possible. Thunderstorms may also result in heavier falls.

    Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Bendigo, Maryborough, Kyneton and Ballarat.

    The highest totals in the 24 hours to 9am today include:
    -32mm at Avalon Station
    -32mm at Charlton
    -29mm at Warracknabeal
    -25mm at Birchip

     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    YrNo. Perisher. Seems spot on and inline with both models to me.
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  27. chriscross

    chriscross Dedicated Member
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    Have to give Jane the benefit of the doubt re: Weds -Thurs but IMO she looked a bit silly on the news last night standing next to a patch of chopped up man made snow at Mt B. Hope she's on the ball for later in the week.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  29. kiter

    kiter Active Member

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    forecasting snow falls this year has been a dark art particularly with these troughs that peak over SA and wandering cold pools that are nigh impossible to predict where they wander to and whether they fizzle and pizzle
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL For people in parts of the East Gippsland, Mallee and North East Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 10:41 am Wednesday, 14 September 2016.

    WEATHER SITUATION:
    A low pressure system south of Adelaide will move slowly southeastwards and weaken later today as another low forms near northeast Tasmania tonight.

    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over parts of the Northeast and Gippsland districts, mainly about Alpine areas. The rain will ease this afternoon, however isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 50 to 60 km/hr with peak gusts to 90 to 100 km/h are possible over northern parts of the Mallee district this afternoon and are likely to redevelop over Alpine parts of the Northeast and Gippsland districts tonight.


    Locations which may be affected include Falls Creek, Mt Hotham and Mildura.

    Severe weather is no longer occurring in the Central, South West, Northern Country and North Central districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED.

     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Could see some very large fall rates overnight as progged by EC/YrNo.

    Perisher:
    [​IMG]
    Buller:
    [​IMG]
     
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  32. jeffx

    jeffx Active Member

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    Hires has no interest.



    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    Hires can eat a fat one. This is about to smack the alps like they're a redhead kid.