SEQLD/NENSW - Areas of heavy rain, showers and storms - February 5-12, 2020

Discussion in 'Eastern & Marine' started by Seabreezes, Feb 4, 2020.

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  1. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us

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    Potentially an event too significant to remain talked about in the Day-to-day thread. Especially now QLD BOM have just issued a flood watch. So here's an event thread :thumbs:
     
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  2. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Flood watch??????? No like.
     
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  3. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Its gonabe epic if some of the models turn out to be right. Dinghy & gumboots look out! Overcast & kind of muggy all day. Thats another word I havnt seen for a long time, muggy.
    Very light rain atm with dark grey matter to the west.
    Bring it on!
    Eastern Koels making a vocal presence.
     
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  4. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Latest EC shifts the falls further north and east into SC right on the coastline. GFS and Access-G have a similar bullseye around the same area. Looks like most other areas miss out on significant falls for this first round. The eastward trend doesn't surprise me, but the northward does.
     
  5. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I've never seen such a large upper level trough continuously re-enforce itself through the guts over such a prolonged period of time like most models are now suggesting it might (though that could still change). So much so, that some models even have the CS low being sucked as far south as the NSW coast (some remaining offshore, some hitting - you'd think the latter would be extremely unlikely, but even if it did it would be more a hybrid by that time).

    Good luck predicting best rainfall amounts/whereabouts in this highly variable pattern lol.
     
  6. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Very cool up here with light showers.Apparent temp of 12.9C with a top of 23C.Looking forward to tomoz
     
  7. Tsunami

    Tsunami Addicted

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    Im being pessimistic
    Se winds
    showers 20- 40 mm for the week
     
  8. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    As in - right smack bang on the catchment area for the Mary River - which starts in the Sunny Coast Hinterland and up to Hervey Bay???
    Anyway, besides localised flash flooding, I reckon it would take at least 300mm across a wide area to flood the Mary atm - dams are still largely empty. We actually need a "flushing event" to move sediment from river floor areas that have been still and debris from river banks so subsequent inundation events can progress through the waterways swiftly and efficiently.
     
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  9. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    In a space of a day the bullseye gone from NE NSW/Gold Coast To Brisbane and Sunshine Coast. Normally it'll be the other way around. But won't be surprised to see the convergence move south faster then anticipated. Tomorrow is the first of the big day. We wait and see. :)
     
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  10. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Yes you are,ye of little faith :D
     
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  11. Big T

    Big T Hard Yards

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    Amazing nature hey. I hope this penetrates well inland which has to be a big hope with such a long drag in. Bom should just say forecast next 10:days for oz east coast, everyone expect a foot. Then some muppet would rage if they only got 280mm I guess. Im always the optimist, but if we see a series of upper troughs keep dragging in the juice for over a week , what hope then of a back up cyclone crossing in two weeks to finish it all off? Cmon , feb , get your groove on.
     
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  12. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    This is looking quite interesting though quite uncertain how this unfolds and we haven't seen it this active in quite some time.

    My real-time website may be of interest if anyone wants to see my weather data as it happens at Ferny Grove, NW Brisbane at https://fernygroveweather.com
     
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  13. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    The potential of these next two weeks is so good it's going to be infuriating when it inevitably doesn't fully come off.

    Massive and reinforcing upper trough causes potentially huge falls along the coast from Sunshine to the southern NSW coast, along with inland QLD and NSW to prime the catchments and cause flooding. Then a follow-up cyclone to strike anywhere from SEQ to Sydney.

    Unfortunately, I doubt this will all occur. The first event is going to be wildly unpredictable in terms of where the deluge falls, but there should still be excellent widespread falls particularly for a drought-struck nation. The modelling is also now trending to that cyclone doing the old graveyard.

    The good news is that this system is extremely difficult to forecast for the modelling so anything could happen at this point. I'm up for a big surprise.
     
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  14. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That's why I wanted a gulf low instead. I get the excitement that comes with a TC but 9 times out of 10 they turn well away from the coast by the time they make it down towards these latitudes anyway, and normally just take all the rain with them.

    PS. It looks as though I'm eating my own words now and heavy thundery showers are starting to line us up from the SE. Very rare to get storms under a SE flow here.
     
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  15. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    Yeah I have a pair that always hang around just before rain - not always accurate, but fun anyway.
    I've also adopted a flock of Apostle birds (about 10) somehow. long with my little mother Dove sitting on her egg and my magpie family; it's starting to get awkward walking out the front door.
    I think with this weather, food should not be a problem now so I'll be weaning them off my feedings.
    I think the ground has been primed enough to not have too much run off from standard rain; a lot should seep through which will be great.
     
  16. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    A copy and paste of a post I made elsewhere:

    " I’d like to take this opportunity to re-emphasise an important & long proven principle in forecasting - when there’s disagreements among models, a middle ground scenario somewhere in between the extreme highest & lowest model scenarios ends up being closer to reality more often than not…. rather than a “which model will win or lose” approach (although results can be further refined in some situations by hedging this middle ground scenario somewhat towards the best performing model/s such as ACCESS-C).

    In other words, you should never rely purely on a single model even if it’s very accurate and of course, it’s also vital to do human adjustments where required.

    Many trials and studies in the past have consistently shown that on average, this consensus approach works better than relying on a single model… but it’s also important to note that there are sometimes exceptions and occasionally, reality ends up being close to the lowest or highest outlier scenario… and even outside of that range.

    Here’s a deliberately outdated example of a multimodel accumulating rainfall forecast graph for Caboolture which is in the general Sunshine Coast area that’s favoured for heavy falls developing on Wednesday.
    You can clearly see the huge amount of rain close to 500mm that the European model (the dark blue line) was previously forecasting to accumulate by the end of Wed there (the shorter dark blue line is the slightly newer 4am run of the same model that goes out to 90hrs)…. while most other models were going for significantly lower totals.
    So in this case, a good technique would be to take a middle ground approach by forecasting totals significantly lower than 500mm for there (even though on average, the European model has statistically been the most skilful of all the global models for most areas of the world and most parameters)…. but still forecasting the potential for heavy falls… and not stating that 500mm is completely impossible.
    Incidentally the latest run of the European model has now toned down that 500mm right back for that location… but still retains moderate to heavy falls for that area.

    But having said that, I still think there’s a distinct possibility of a fairly small but persistent focus of very heavy rainfall with flooding potential GRADUALLY developing near the northern coastal fringe in SEQ e.g. Sunshine Coast on Wednesday (uncertainty exists about the timing of the increase though and could start as early as the morning or as late as night time)..… caused by a trough starting to dig south along the coast and resulting in easterly winds from the sea converging with the southerly winds over land, squeezing the moist air up, and causing enhanced cloud/rainfall there….. and helped by the general background uplift of air by the inland upper level trough….. before this focal point of heavy rainfall gradually moves further south along the coast on Thursday.
    For what it’s worth, the typically reliable ACCESS-C is currently suggesting 24hr accumulations up to 100-300mm to develop for parts of the Sunshine Coast up to 10pm Wed (the limit of this model run) but I think those types of amounts will be confined to a reasonably small section of northern SEQ before the heavy falls shift further south.

    Outside of this moving focal area during the next couple of days, rainfall amounts are likely to be lower (especially in the eastern Downs)…. although some locations may well still get some moderate to heavy falls if they manage to get under any persistent deeper convection. "


    BTW 1st image is for GFS 7-day accumulated rainfall upgrades/downgrades starting from 10am today.
     
  17. Snapper22

    Snapper22 Hard Yards

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    Thanks for your analysis Ken. I am sure there are many of us out there that look forward to such posts and those of the other main contributors Mega, Plumbob, Flowin, Falling D, NF, and many others. I am on here every day but rarely post, it is an amazing resource. From my simple observations I would be very excited if I lived Brissy as the big falls invariably fall south of the forecasted area, just my 10 cents worth.
     
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  18. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Ken would this chart give a more realistic outcome ?? or is there another chart ?

     
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  19. Snapper22

    Snapper22 Hard Yards

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    Haha - if you used a pin you couldn't nail my house more precisely at Golden Beach Gleno!
     
  20. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yep that's a good guide @Gleno71 . Just gotta remember in the back of your mind that because ensemble means average out all the members, they can tend to smear good falls over a big area which can sometimes be a bit unrealistic if the rainfall's convective. The lower resolution of most ensembles also tend to smear out finer details. But the ensemble means are still great for getting an overview of what values are likely to be common (then factor in the possibility of locally much higher falls within those broader areas).
     
  21. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Yes Gleno that is one, but it is only the ensemble average of the EC model. Ideally that would be blended with ensembles of other models and "weights" put on past performance of which models perform the best recently or under similar setups (but similar setups is not easy to define). The BoM WATL (or PME as it is otherwise known) is a probably the best publicly available multi-model guidance with map outputs.
     
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  22. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    It would be nice to see Access C ensemble outputs and have it publicly available..... but I guess we will just have to wait until BoM are ready and willing for that.
     
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  23. Inclement Weather

    Inclement Weather Hard Yards

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    You can see already in real time this event commencing over the southern Wide Bay area. Eventually, this will drift south and stall over the Sunshine Coast tomorrow before drifting south again. Personally, I hope it doesn't hang around SC too long. I don't want our creek to flood. That's when it lives up to its name: Hellhole Creek.
     
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  24. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    I have a rooftop party on Sat at Kings Beach at Caloundra...might take a poncho.
     
  25. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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  26. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    lol @Snapper22 ill buy you a awesome umbrella !!
     
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  27. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    I agree the next two weeks looks interesting. What has been missing for many summers is sustained periods of good moisture supply. The TPW forecast from EC suggests we may "potentially" have ten days or more days of good moisture in our area (animation below). Of course atmospheric moisture alone is not enough and other factors have to occur to make it rain, but at least there are signs of one of the essential ingredients.
    Heavily dependant on much large scale upper, mid, and low level highs and lows and predicting those, and their location/movement and coincidence, well I can only leave that to the experts.
     
  28. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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  29. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Yep a summer Atmospheric River. A lot of leading research particularly west coast USA focuses on winter AR events. IMO ARs are not recognized enough for Australian context.
     
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  32. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yep, not enough research on them being done here. Meanwhile NASA started flying recon/data gathering missions into them quite a number of years ago. The Pineapple Express AR over there is one of the most important moisture transport mechanisms for dumping lots of rain and mountain snow in California.
     
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  33. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Just remember @Gleno71 the WATL forecasts aren’t a single model but rather, an ensemble of the leading models (EC, EC ensemble, ACCESS-R and G, CMC, GFS, UK, JMA)... and they also use the most recent two runs of each model.

    BTW @Flowin I don’t know if you were aware already but I believe the WATL chance of rain forecasts on the public website are now calibrated to obs over the last few months (in line with the calibrated outputs that have been available internally and as registered user products for awhile now).
    It still frustrates me that the public ones are still 10pm to 10pm and there’s no 0.2mm threshold one though.
     
  34. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    yep the 10pm to 10pm time is frustrating. I also thought WATL also now uses Access GE (ensemble) rather than Access deterministic. Would be nice to see Access GE ensemble made publicly available. If EC and GFS can make their ensembles outputs available I don't see why BoM can't do it for Access.
     
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  35. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Anyone with access to 06z EC able to tell us whether it still has that massive dump of precip over the northern Sunshine Coast, or has it shifted it a little further offshore like other models have already done? Genuinely curious because so far even ACCESS-G, for all the hate that it gets is showing it up. First is EC, second ACCESS-G, to 1am tonight:


     
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  36. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Mega. Still waiting for EC 06z. If it holds with the on shore heavy rain that will be impressive persistence.
     
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  37. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Cloudy day with drizzle and light rain since the late afternoon. A cool day with a maximum temperature of 26 C reached just after 9am before falling slowly during the rest of the morning, became stable in the early afternoon and fell from the afternoon. The dew point fell during the morning and afternoon and became stable tonight while remaining close to average. From the mid morning the dew point became moderately high returning to near average tonight. Light S to SSE winds since 8am and SSW to SSE in the last hour.

    Last 24 hours:


     
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  38. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Mega 06z heaviest totals downgraded, moved east also but not completely off shore.
    Forecast totals your way improved :cheers: :woohoo:
    48hrs to 4pm Thursday.

     
  39. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thank you! :)
     
  40. Multiversity

    Multiversity One of Us

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    Were there many Channel Bill Cuckoos around your way as well? Suspect the dry weather has knocked the migrants numbers a bit.
     
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  41. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Let's hope 06z EC is at least right, but it's the last one standing. I'd hate to see all that rain over the ocean.

    GFS is going for insane rain this weekend over SEQ, but it's the only model going for it.

    Very interested to see how this event turns out considering the unpredictability of the set-up. I just hope not to be disappointed by the promise of epic not delivering.
     
  42. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Didnt hear any yet thank xxxk. Thats a terrible noise generator.
     
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  43. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    EC12 z eased back from its massive totals, also more to south.
    Access C maintaining consistency with previous run.
    Maps below 36h totals to 10pm Thursday for EC, Access C, GFS
     
  44. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    HUGE TOTALS overnight!! 0.8mm
     
  45. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Latest Access C suggesting the heavier rain to fall for the Gold Coast region tomorrow (Thursday) Accumulating precip from 100-150mm up into Thursday 10pm
     
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  46. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    Access R pointing the bone at the Coffs coast near Seabreeze County for the epic rainfall
     
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  47. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    The models look completely different this morning to last night. Big shift southward in the falls back toward NE NSW.

    Bizarrely there's also now model agreement that next week a cyclone will come relatively close to NSW before curving away toward the last minute. A bloody high pressure system establishes itself under Australia at the last minute to deflect.
     
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  48. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    Are you referring to rainfall over the next couple of days or for a longer time period @Nature's Fury ? As far as I can see in terms of today/tomorrow, both ACCESS-C and EC have maintained heavy falls to develop along the Wide Bay Coast/northern SEQ coast today (depending on the model.... although ACCESS-C has shifted the heavier falls a bit further north for today) before shifting the heavier falls further south along the coast tomorrow.

    Meanwhile the EC ensemble's still been persisting with that tropical system curving SSW with some members bringing it close to, or even crossing the coast... while some keep it well offshore - see above. Will be interesting to see if it just stays a fish storm that only brings big swells onto the coast... or something more potent.
     
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  49. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    Another brilliant post by Ken. Much appreciated with the knowledge and charts you post.
     
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  50. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    I was referring to the bulk of the falls.

    Thanks for posting that TC image as well. One can only imagine what would occur if a cyclone impacted NSW after a preceding rain event, but long way to go yet.
     
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