Storm SEQLD/NENSW - Areas of heavy rain, showers and storms - February 5-12, 2020

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Seabreezes, Feb 4, 2020.

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  1. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    Well, I gotta say it's absolutely heaving it down here at the moment, I can't really hear the click clack on the keyboard as I type this because the rains so heavy.
     
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  2. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    No worries. Yeah, New Zealand just called and said they wanted their Coral Sea cyclones back!
     
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  3. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 5 Feb 2020
    Time: 7:55 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.2 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 26.1 C
    Min Ground Temp: 19.7 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 1.4 mm

    Temperature: 21.5 C
    Relative Humidity: 79 %
    Dew Point: 17.7 C
    MSL Pressure: 1017.2 hPa
    Wind Speed: 4 kph - light breeze
    Wind Direction: SSW

    Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
    Visibility: 10km to 19km - Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 8/8
    Ground State: Ground moist
    Thunder yesterday: Yes

    Notes of yesterday weather - 4/2/20: Cloudy with cu and as clouds . A mild thunderstorm followed by light showers in the first hour of the day with brief heavy falls. Drizzle and light rain in late afternoon and in the evening. A warm night with the temperature falling in the first hour of the day before becoming stable through the rest of the early hours of the day. A cool day. The maximum temperature was reached a little after 9am, fell slowly during the remainder of the morning, became stable in the early afternoon and then fell from the afternoon. Near average and stable dew point early in the day, fell during the morning and afternoon, became stable in the evening and was near average over the entire day. Relative humidity rose at the very start of the day with the rainfall and became high and stable before returning back to near average in the morning. Moderately high daytime and evening relative humidity. Light SW winds shifting S to SE at the start of the day, before mostly calm winds from 1am, S to SW becoming S to SE in the morning, followed by S to SSE and SSW to SE from the mid evening.

    Today: The temperature have been near average and stable. Stable and near average relative humidity and dew point. Light SSW to SSE winds early today with S to SSW winds in the early morning followed by S to SW winds from 4am after some S to SSE winds and S to SSW since 6am.
     
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  4. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Good post thanks Ken
    I have been watching some models bringing a cat 2/3 near or on the coast from sunshine coast to ballina. Interesting. After going through yasi all i can say is be careful what you wish for.
    As for rain here. Im loving the heavy rain.....havnt even had a shower here. Not getting high hopes at the moment
     
  5. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    No worries @Tsunami .. the more extensive rainfall along the SE QLD coastal fringe hasn't been forecast to ramp up that much until tomorrow, at least by ACCESS-C. Until then, it's just going for somewhat hit and miss stuff today (it's suggesting that most of the heavier falls today will likely be along some sections of the Wide Bay Coast and possibly northern coastal SE QLD although this positioning still remains a bit uncertain).
    Moderate to heavy falls also look possible on some of the days after today/tomorrow.

    As for the potential cyclone, even if it did wander that far south (which is still open to speculation), it's also uncertain how far south it'd go while remaining a TC before it starts transitioning into a non-tropical system.
     
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  6. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not sure which massive high you're referring to NF? Either way, stronger TCs are steered by the mid to upper level flow rather than the lower-levels which you may be referring to. In this case, it actually slips straight down between our upper level trough to its west and the upper level ridge to its east. Very very hard to get a TC take a head-on trajectory towards SEQ let alone Sydney since stronger TCs are 99% of the time captured by the STJ and sent to the graveyard, and weaker TCs just get sheared to oblivion once they even get close to our latitudes.
     
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  7. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Thanks Ken
    Alot of people seem to think Brisbane is to far south for cyclones to hold cyclone category.
    Now. Ive seen cyclones still cyclones and not being down graded till below the tip of the north island of N Z. That is about level with sydney if not lower. From that i would think Brisbane can and could be a big target. But for some reason this area has been extremely lucky since the 1970s
    I would think luck will change one day.

    And with what Greta thinks it wont be long till a cyclone hits Antarctica (joke) haha
     
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  8. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    30mm to 9am. Most of that I suspect fell this morning when I could barely hear myself think.
     
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  9. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    It is indeed correct that SE QLD/NE NSW can, and has experienced a number of TC's before @Tsunami ... although coastal crossings in this region are still much less frequent compared to the tropics.

    Also worth remembering that the terms "cyclone" (inferring a TC in newspapers) and "tropical cyclone" were thrown around a lot more liberally back in the day especially in newspapers and although a number of systems were TC's, many were also east coast lows or hybrids rather than actual tropical cyclones. So when looking back at the numer of past true TC's that affected the region, you have to be really careful to distinguish which ones were ECL's and which ones were true TC's.

    As far as observed trends in TC's go, there's been an overall decrease in TC numbers in the Australian region in recent decades which is consistent with what a lot of studies were suggesting but the number of severe ones haven't changed much... which means the proportion of severe ones out of total TC counts has increased. Warmer sea surface temps and weaker shear in midlatitudes are conducive to allowing the ones that do occur to reach further south although it doesn't apply to all of them since TC's are highly sensitive to the setup on each given day.
    P.S. some nice totals since 9am yesterday near the border of the WBB/SEC districts too including 140mm at Mt Elliot Alert.
     
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  10. MattS

    MattS First Runs

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    Thanks, very handy! We're in the same suburb...
     
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  11. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    33mm here in Caboolture and 39mm at my parents farm in Elimbah to 9am this morning. From mostly drizzly/light continuous rain with rainrates varying between 1 to 8mm/h intensity since 1.30pm yesterday.

    It does starting to appear that the onshore flow in the Wide Bay/ Northern Sunshine coast region is starting to change from predominately SE previously to a more ESE to a touch ENE.
     
  12. Batten down the hatches

    Batten down the hatches Hard Yards

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  13. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Love it
    BOM LATEST backs off heavy rain later. Now showers and heavy rain tommorrow
    I feel a disappointment comming
     
  14. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Was going to back wash and lower pool level. But been caught before so didnt
    Very lucky
     
  15. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    Here Tsunami the NSW BOM issued a Severe Weather Warning for your area commencing tomorrow. I reckon you are good for 300-400mm for the coming week 10 days. Today is the disappointment for the Brisbane/Sunshine Coast region after yesterdays surprising upgrades only to be totally thrown out in this mornings/late last nights runs. But, I live in hope that a random convergence area does develop unexpectedly and still deliver those insane totals later today/tonight. :p

    Severe Weather Warning

    for HEAVY RAINFALL
    For people in Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast and parts of Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 12:07 pm Wednesday, 5 February 2020.

    COASTAL TROUGH TO BRING HEAVY RAIN



    Weather Situation: Rainfall is expected to increase along the New South Wales northern coast from Thursday, as a low pressure trough deepens in the area. Intense rainfall is possible for some areas. Longer-term there is potential for this system to shift south on the weekend, also increasing rainfall along parts of the central and southern coast.

    HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible about parts of the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast and eastern parts of the Northern Tablelands from Thursday.

    The location of the heaviest falls will be determined by the movement and strength of the coastal trough, and by where thunderstorms occur. It is most likely that the heaviest rainfall will be focused about the Northern Rivers during Thursday, then the Mid North Coast during Friday.

    A Flood Watch is also expected to be issued.

    Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Taree and Dorrigo.

    On the weekend, there is potential for heavy rainfall along parts of the central and/or southern coast and ranges as this system shifts its focus southwards. This will be monitored closely, and warnings updated if heavy rainfall for these areas becomes likely.
     
  16. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky One of Us

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    Some light drizzle here this morning and parts of yesterday. Nice cool temps, sure beats the high 30’s. Our dam has doubled over the last 2 months. I believe now around 7-8%. This upcoming event could really be what the doctor ordered! Looks to be around 100mm on average over the next 8 days. Anyone have any idea what can be expected on the Southern Downs? I know this event will be a challenge to forecast. Thanks! Cheers. Michael
     
  17. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Thanks mate but im bayside se brisbane....feeling like ill wake up tommorrow with yet another down grade to showers
     
  18. dogski

    dogski One of Us

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    Thanks Tsunami,don't forget Huey is listening and watching :(
     
  19. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Depends on what sort of timeframe you're looking at. For example, if you're looking at today/tomorrow, forecasts still haven't changed much re the generally lower rainfall amounts over the eastern Downs (about 15-40mm with locally lower and higher amounts than that) being sandwiched in between the better falls further inland and those along the coastal fringe - see above probabilities from the EC ensemble for 2-day (between 4am this morning and 10pm tomorrow) accumulated falls exceeding 30mm.
    But beyond tomorrow, there's quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much that area will fill in with better falls.
     
  20. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Hard Yards

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    I am liking the falls currently in the upper Darling catchment, nice and light atm, lets hope they hang around and slowly build.
     
  21. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Pushing my luck now. Just washed the sheets etc and theyre on the line now

    As far as next weeks tc go. Have filled one of my 20lt jerry cans with fuel. If not needed for the genny it can go in the wifes car
     
  22. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    Wasn't Cyclone Nancy projected to hit the coast at some point in the south east in 1990?
     
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  23. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    Sorry about that, I had this silly illusion you were from coastal NE NSW. I would still say around 150-250mm for your area in SE Brisbane.
     
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  24. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Used to live down that way
     
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  25. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    Revised Flood watch for SE QLD.


    Flood Watch for coastal catchments south of Caboolture to the NSW border and southern inland catchments
    Issued at 12:52 pm EST on Wednesday 5 February 2020

    Flood Watch Number: 2

    Minor flooding is possible from Thursday across parts of the Flood Watch area.

    South east coastal catchments: Heavy rainfall that was expected during Wednesday is now likely to commence Thursday morning and continue through to Thursday night. Some heavy falls are possible particularly in the south. Unsettled conditions will continue into the weekend with further showers and thunderstorms expected.



    Southern inland catchments: Persistent widespread showers, thunderstorms and rain areas are expected over southern inland catchments during Wednesday and are likely to continue into the weekend. Locally heavy falls are possible.

    Catchments in the Flood Watch area have received rainfall over the last few weeks so will respond to heavy rainfall.

    Riverine flooding is possible from Thursday, particularly coastal catchments where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Several days of showers and thunderstorms over inland catchments may cause river level rises into the weekend.



    Localised flooding and minor disruption to transport routes is possible throughout the Flood Watch area.

    Catchments likely to be affected include:

    Pine and Caboolture Rivers


    Upper Brisbane River

    Lower Brisbane River
    (Specifically the Bremer River, Warrill Creek and Brisbane Creeks)

    Logan and Albert Rivers

    Gold Coast Rivers and Creeks

    Condamine Rivers

    Macintyre River

    Weir River

    Moonie River

    Balonne River

    Wallam and Mungallala Creeks

    Warrego River (QLD)

    Paroo River (QLD)
    (Covered by an existing flood warning)

    Bulloo River (QLD)


    Flooding is no longer expected in the following catchments: Mary River, Noosa River, Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks.
     
  26. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    Radar watching and Rainfall picking up just off the Wide Bay and Fraser Coast and pushing onto land. I reckon MegaMatch should crack the 100mm for the event for Maryborough by some time tonight.
     
  27. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus One of Us

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    0.8mm here so far, looks like the rain is out west at the moment. Loving this cool weather though, delightful.
     
  28. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Since 9am yesterday, 70mm here, 93mm at the airport. It's a good start, but we need a lot more than that.

    Also can't help but mention how poorly EC has performed in the past 24 hours compared to most of the others (you could see this being the case as early as yesterday) . A bit unusual for it to get it so wrong in such a short time frame.
     
  29. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Current EC 00z run (still loading) is 300-400 mm for most of SEQ with a bullseye of 519 over Logan out to +156.

    Of this, Round 1 is significant inland falls of 100-150 mm in a big arc from the coast to about Gatton in the next 24 hours with another 100 in the following 24 hours.

    Round 2 is about 100-200 mm across SEQ on Sunday/Monday.

    GFS and Access have absolutely no interest in Round 1. They have any decent falls offshore with decent rain accumulations inland and by the coast. EC keeps playing with this epic dump of rain, but considering it modelled this for today in various locations in previous runs and none of it came off I'm very sceptical.

    However, GFS is very similar to EC with Round 2 on the late weekend but just has it more into NE NSW.

    I'm not sure why EC keeps thinking there's going to be huge rain here, but we'll find out within 24 hours I guess.
     
  30. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    8.5 mm so far.
    Waiting with anticipation.
     
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  31. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    Tiaro just south of Maryborough has recieved 120mm since 9am today. Which I don't think many models expected this much rainfall to occur for the southern Wide bay area. The rain is continuing to expand and thicken up and develop further south off the coast of the Sunshine Coast and should start nearing the coastal fringe in an hour or 2. Its a wait and see scenario if it can maintain intensity or weaken.

    If possible anyone can put up the Access C precip for the next 24 hours to compare? thanks.
     
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  32. Big T

    Big T Hard Yards

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    I recall it did cross at Byron. Was living in Ballina back then and I recall it’s crossed at Byron but then pretty quickly took off back to sea And off it went. Surf was truly epic though.
     
  33. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yep @Rainbomb not many models were going for much rainfall for the southern Wide Bay area but ACCESS-C was a notable exception and was close to the mark as usual - see first graphic above using 18z ACCESS-C for total precip between 4am and 5pm today.
    The second graphic is 18z ACCESS-C's precip from 10pm tonight to 10pm tomorrow night (I prefer to use the 18z runs since the 00z ones can be quite erratic at times).
     
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  34. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    Thank you Ken.
     
  35. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Thsnks Ken
    I may need to get some sauce for my hat while I eat it
     
  36. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Next to no rain on the Gold Coast today, looking at the Brisbane sounding surely we should of got a dumping of rain today? Loads of moisture and onshore winds up to the 700hpa level, or were the onshore winds were not strong enough? Screenshot 2020-02-05 17.31.41.JPG the onshore winds were not strong enough ?
     
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  37. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    I have been going through the EC run looking at the different levels trying to understand its bullish rain prognosis in SEQ. Appears to me it has winds fairly uniform from East onshore at surface level up to about 850hpa level, then at mid levels 700hpa to 500hpa has a convergence and circulations in areas of the bullseye heavy rain. Below is an example of forecast for 7am today, from yesterday’s 00z run.
    First pic is EC winds 700hpa, second pic EC rain for same time and run for 3 hr total, and 3rd pic ICON model (German) for the same forecast.
    Seems to me EC has too much vortices or convergence in the mid levels.






     
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  38. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    A lot of those vortices are actually the result of lumps of deeper convection forming in EC's atmosphere and perturbing the midlevel flow around them. If you look at EC's precip and simulated IR satpics for that same time, you'll see how they correspond to the areas where those perturbances are occurring. It's quite a common sight when deeper convection's happening in its atmosphere.
     
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  39. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That's why I thought we were no chance, as I thought the SE surge would barely even make it up this far before retreating back down the coast.. Happy to have been proven wrong and it's nice to see something go our way for once.
     
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  40. Timbuck

    Timbuck Addicted

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    My mate near tiaro has had 170mm last night and today. Old school rain gauge.

    Wishing everyone get there fair share with this prolonged wet event , very good start
     
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  41. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Love this sort of weather, at least its not oppressively muggy & sultry.
    Never mind the rain, it'll come when its ready, with vigour.
    Ha, just looked at 256k Stapy.
    Lovely juicy intrusion from the north.
     
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  42. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    that’s 0.8mm more then we had at our place today...lol....sometime between 6.30 p.m and 9.30 p.m lastnight (was out for dinner so no idea when exactly) we had 0.7mm, but nothing in the gauge since. Worked outside all day at Hawthorne today, was the same there with no rain at all.
     
  43. Legs Akimbo

    Legs Akimbo Grumblebum Ski Pass: Gold

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    ABC Drum did an OB about the drought from Stanthorpe on the Southern Downs. Pissing down.
     
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  44. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    The moisture was there but there was no strong suface feature to provide a focus for heavier rainfall and the upper troughing's been a bit too far west to provide ideal forcing.
    But you may have noticed that the patchy rain areas falling from the midlevel cloud ahead of the upper trough have gradually become closer over the last few hours while the onshore showers on the low level flow have also increased - both in response to the upper trough gradually coming closer with better upmotion. This will probably continue overnight into tomorrow (also aided along the coastal fringe by the coastal surface trough/wind convergence that'll develop) before the upper trough starts flattening out a bit late tomorrow for SE QLD. The majority of the heavier falls will probably then gradually start contracting further south late tomorrow afternoon or evening as the surface trough moves further south.
    EDIT: I'm a bit uncertain about that last sentence given latest 06z ACCESS-C (it has a shallower surface trough but further inland which if true, would mean heavier falls penetrating a bit further inland into SEQ with a more ENE onshore flow and the trough not clearing south for awhile) but I'm not ready yet to put complete faith in it unless that scenario holds until tomorrow morning's 18z run.
     
  45. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Already happening with that lovely big signal near Tiaro starting to curve in.
     
  46. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    do i gather from what you say Ken
    Rain/ showeres will steadily increase over night
    Fingers crossed
     
  47. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Maybe I'm wrong but that sounds exactly like what EC is showing with it's big rain dump?
     
  48. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Flowin, I posted this a few days ago and I believe this is the biggest contributing factor as to why EC has been constantly going for much larger falls over the south by now which haven't yet come off (but it is slowly starting to slip southward now). If it did come off, then areas south of Fraser Island (Sunshine Coast etc) would have gotten nailed last night and today. Luckily for us, It was too aggressive in deepening the trough near the coast and then dragging it back down the coast. I'm glad it was wrong because if it did end up being right, then most of this precious rain that's fallen over the Fraser Coast these last 24 hours would have would likely have fallen all to our south.

    The next 24 hours look more interesting down there but not set in stone yet - some models are more interested than others in deepening a '/' aligned trough along the coast from about the Sunshine Coast south, while others are far less interested and keep this trough weaker and further offshore. The strength, positioning and speed of this feature will go a long way to finding out whether we/you get a 150-200mm event or a 30-50mm event.
     
  49. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Amazing the differences in model forecasts from now until 10 pm tomorrow night. Here they are in order of aggressiveness:

    1st - Access-C (courtesy of Higgins FB)
    2nd - EC
    3rd - GFS
    4th - Access-G
     
  50. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I must ask, as someone who rarely visits Facebook weather pages, does Higgins ever show conservative model runs in his posts?

    PS NF, that ACCESS-C run is this afternoon's run. 06z tonight looks even better than that, but other 'not so optimistic' models need to still be considered.
     
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