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Storm SEQLD/NENSW - Areas of heavy rain, showers and storms - February 5-12, 2020

Discussion in 'Systems & Severe' started by Seabreezes, Feb 4, 2020.

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  1. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Earlier he posted an Access-C update (the one Ken shared earlier) and made a 'back down' post. Last night he was warning of apocalyptic rain and flood potential with his big alert icon. Now he's posted the latest Access-C and is warning of a widespread 100-200m from Gladstone to Coffs Harbour in the next 24 hours.

    Thanks for your explanation as well Mega. You can see the two trouh possibilities clearly in the model differences.
     
  2. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    It's been toking it down for a bit here now. Noticing a few storms starting to develop coastal and just off-shore from here, nothing crazy but there nonetheless.
     
  3. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    06z GFS is still sticking to its guns and wants none of what EC/Access-C are offering. Moderate falls offshore up to 70 and 0-30 inland for the next 24.
     
  4. whynot

    whynot Hard Yards

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    I am starting to get a bit twitchy about the rainfall forecast for the Somerset catchment. The most productive area for catchment is in a rough triangle from Peachester to Delany's Creek to Woodford. This setup has the potential to significantly refill the Brisbane dams, against the dry climatic run we have been having. If I am reading the charts correctly, this area is right on the edge of the main rainfall event. For example, the latest ACCESS-C (00Z Feb 5) has just over 100mm of accumulation over the next 24 hours. But, the rainfall tails off quite quickly on the western side of the D'Aguilar Range (understandably) ... I just hope the dams fill up from this event. I really don't want to go through another long period of not being able to water the garden.
     
  5. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Anti clockwise motion on stapy looks kind of strange, weird, LOL
     
  6. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    LOL, pole flip.
     
  7. Lani

    Lani One of Us

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    About 25mm for last two days so far. Good rain tonight, few more mm and up to 160 for the year. Well over 1/2 of last years total beautiful and grew here!
     
  8. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    My subjective impression for awhile now has been that GFS often tends to be over-conservative with rainfall amounts when it comes to rain events. Not always but often.
     
  9. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    One for laughs. Courtesy of latest Access-G which ends the rain event with a cyclone impact on SEQ/NE NSW.
     
  10. Blowin’

    Blowin’ Early Days

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    Hi all,
    Watching and waiting...
    In the meantime is there a way we can re-establish our locations in our posts as per weatherzone?”
    It’s really frustrating seeing “5mm here” and have no idea where you are?
    Any suggestions?
     
  11. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    Only light drizzle in Kingaroy so far, EC and GFS are going for +100mm over the next ten days.
     
  12. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Good call Blowon
     
  13. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Gfs might bo on thr money
    More of what we got today
     
  14. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The mobile version of this forum omits pretty much all the profile/location information (unlike the desktop version), though a workaround if you're viewing on mobile and haven't quite remembered where people are located, is to switch to 'Desktop version' in your mobile web browser's settings menu. The writing will become smaller, but if you turn your phone on its side (landscape view), the writing will become somewhat larger in comparison. I've read the forum is about to get an upgrade, so maybe the mobile version will be improved when its comes to displaying profile/location information.

    It hasn't been posted here yet, so here's the Flood Watch issued for many of the rivers along the NENSW coast:
    ~~~~~~
    Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
    Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.

    Initial Flood Watch for the New South Wales Coastal Rivers from the Tweed to the Hastings
    Issued at 12:28 pm EDT on Wednesday 5 February 2020

    Flood Watch Number: 1

    RIVER LEVEL RISES ABOVE THE MODERATE FLOOD LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIVERS AND THE MID NORTH COAST

    Rainfall is expected to increase along the New South Wales northern coast from Thursday, as a low pressure trough deepens in the area. Intense rainfall is possible for some areas.

    Coastal catchments are relatively wet due to recent rainfall.

    High tides may exacerbate flood conditions in low lying coastal areas.

    A Severe Weather Warning has been issued for the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast and Northern Tablelands districts.

    Catchments likely to be affected include:

    Tweed and Rouse Rivers

    minor flooding

    Wilsons River
    moderate flooding

    Richmond River
    minor flooding

    Orara River
    minor flooding

    Coffs Coast
    minor flooding

    Bellinger and Kalang Rivers
    moderate flooding

    Nambucca River
    moderate flooding

    Macleay River
    minor flooding

    Hastings River
    minor flooding

    Camden Haven River
    minor flooding

    Link to flood watch: http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/flood/floodwatch1.shtml
    ~~~~~~

    A very interesting week or so ahead! With falls of 300-400mm+ within the realm of possibility along the NENSW coast, it does start to open the door for the potential of major flooding. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all unfolds.
     
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  15. Itsjustme

    Itsjustme Hard Yards

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    Steady rain here the last half hour, will be some good totals in this part of Wide bay in the morning.
     
  16. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Maybe the mods could jig the subheader below our name to a location linked to the profile? Maybe too complicated.
     
  17. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Makes sense with adjusting the mobile setting, havnt used a desktop for years. Cheers.
     
  18. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    @whynot that area down to Woodford gauge is indeed a sweet spot for good rains and generating flow to Somerset. Unfortunately it is only 20% of the Somerset catchment and about 4% of the Wivenhoe catchment. So for a good dams refill event it will need either very high totals over that area, like more than 400 to 500 mm, or decent rain totals to spread further inland and over a much greater area of the catchment. Nonetheless all rain will be welcome even if it only replenishes catchment soil moisture.
     
  19. Adam Ant

    Adam Ant Addicted

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    Wonderful soaking rain at the moment. 18mm on the western side of Toowoomba since 9am yesterday. Seems as though the eastern downs may miss the big totals. Hopefully they are wrong, would love to see the condamine get a flow in it.

    There have been alot of farmers planting mungbeans on the Darling Downs, this rain will ensure they have a bumper crop.
     
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  20. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    Still waiting on the rain to arrive here at Salisbury, nothing added to the gauge even though radar showed showers passing through here a few times this evening....at best it has very lightly sprinkled rain, but you’d be hard pressed to say it’s rained here really.. Been watching the activity out on the Downs on the radar, nice to see for those that need it
     
  21. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Been watching the forecast development of moisture feed.
    Total Precipitable Water we have had in last few days has been good but relatively localised.
    The main difference from the weekend into next week is the substantive replenishing supply of moisture (if forecasts come to fruition as a forecast is only that and it is not a promise :deadhorse: ).

    Anyways with my recent bemusement at EC deterministic model I’ve decided to show below the TPW animation for EC ensemble which is only available as a spaghetti map. Each spaghetti line is a different ensemble member, and colours are the contours of the TPW amount. What we see with that is substantial and sustained broad easterly supply of moisture particularly from the weekend.

    Pics 2 and 3 below are the GFS IVT (effectively means the TPW multiplied by its movement and demonstrates concentrated moisture supply, direction, and sort of represents “rate of supply”. Size of arrows is more “heavy/laden” and/or faster “vapour movement”.
    Pic 2 is about time now and pic 3 forecast about 1000 AEST Sunday.
    All up moisture feed is potentially good to excellent, still need the physics though to convert that to rain.





     
  22. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Great charts Flowin. If we get a deluge tomorrow with the relatively 'weak' atmospheric river imagine what's possible when it beefs up next week.

    Tonight's 6z Access-C reposted from Higgins (9 pm tonight - 4 am Friday). Signing out from the forums tonight with optimism that this comes to fruition and not the partypooper modelling.

     
  23. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Light showers between 8am and 9am with the total in the 24 hours to 9am of 1.6 mm. Light drizzle/rain at times in the afternoon and from 5pm with 0.6 mm since 9am.

    A cold day with a maximum temperature of 24 C in the mid afternoon under cloudy skies. The dew point rose during the morning, became stable in the late morning and early afternoon before falling slowly and have remained near average today. Moderately high relative humidity from the mid morning to late afternoon returning to near average tonight. Light S to SSE winds from morning, S to SW winds tonight and SSW to WSW from 8pm.

    Last 24 hours:
     
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  24. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Well at 0045hrs the radar is fil l I ng I n nicely. could be some heavy rain in an hour or 2
     
  25. Blowin’

    Blowin’ Early Days

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    Thanks Seabreeze that worked!
     
  26. Stumer1

    Stumer1 One of Us

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    Doesn't look like we'll get much more today in Kingaroy unless that stuff north of Bundaberg comes down.
     
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  27. Rod H

    Rod H One of Us

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    All that posters have to do is state " Here in xxxxxx the current weather / rain is ".
    Simple as that!
     
  28. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    No work for me today, first time in a long while we've been rained out (i can't actually recall my last day off from rain it was that long ago)....nice to see the rain falling this morning though.
    Was woken here at Salisbury about 3.45 a.m by the sound of decent rain on the roof, checked the guage and we'd only had 4.0mm, as I looked at the guage it jumped up 0.8mm, so appears we'd gotten bugger all during the night before that and it was just starting up for here. Total currently reading 13.5mm, good to crack double figures and exactly what I wanted for the lawn...nice steady rain that'll soak in
     
  29. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    It’s been bucketing down here in Moorooka this morning. It’s been so roaring loud at times, it woke me up around 3:30am.
     
  30. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    40mm to 6am and coming down steadily. Looking forward to today (absolutely promise no more pics of Cat Vader).

    Enjoy the rain folks......:emoji_zap:
     
  31. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Still not convinced this rain will stick atound
    I know bschstorm used to get over excited about cyclones but it is anther model to come into aggreance for next thursday idh
     
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  32. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Things still look like they're going according to plan so far this morning in SE QLD with heavy showers and rain areas having spread down the coastal fringe this morning and mostly lighter falls inland.

    ACCESS-C's still suggesting that general pattern (with heavy falls and flash flooding risk near the coast and lighter falls inland) to continue into this afternoon when there may be a temporary southward contraction of the more numerous activity into southern parts of SE QLD/NE NSW before becoming more numerous again near the coast tonight/overnight/into tomorrow morning.... which is then replaced by some some shower and thunderstorm activity redeveloping here and there during the daytime and afternoon over the region.
     
  33. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Ken is Access-C still going for those same high amounts as last night? On the radar it looks to me like the trough has pivoted and intensified, but I'm not sure it's enough to dump those big falls on shore?

    EC has completely dropped big falls and has 50-60 for a big area of the coastal strip, but no big dump offshore. I don't think that's likely to be accurate either.
     
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  34. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yep, the 18z run still has a narrow zone of 100-300mm along the coast (accumulations between 4am this morning and midnight tonight) but lower totals further away from the coast. The persistence of that activity coming in over the same areas would likely be leading to those big totals... not just intensity.
    Having said that, I often find that while those kinds of totals that ACCESS-C suggests are often close, they often tend to occur in smaller areas than it would otherwise seem.
     
    #134 Ken Kato, Feb 6, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
  35. DDstorm

    DDstorm One of Us

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    Woohoo. 400 MMS......no that's not right. 40 mms from...... hang on. 4 mms over night in the official gauge. Settle down, just being funny. No work today either, what a day just to enjoy. Soak on in.
     
  36. GBerg

    GBerg Addicted

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    Up to 105mm here in Noosaville since 9am yesterday (most of that has fallen since 6pm) and still raining steadily with bursts of heavier rain.
     
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  37. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    That rain band loses intensity very quickly beyond the immediate coastline.
     
  38. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    Just hit 31.0mm for Salisbury since lastnight, nothing real heavy but just constantly falling rain since about 5.00 a.m (was on and off from about 3.30 a.m).....31.7mm event total
     
  39. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    Maryborough 97mm, Tiaro 162mm since 9am yesterday. My dodgy voodoo still works. Me thinks Mega/Marvin are happy:love:
     
  40. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 6 Feb 2020
    Time: 7:42 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 19.6 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.9 C
    Min Ground Temp: 20 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 36.2 mm

    Temperature: 19.7 C
    Relative Humidity: 91 %
    Dew Point: 18.2 C
    MSL Pressure: 1015.4 hPa
    Wind Speed: 2 kph - light air
    Wind Direction: WNW

    Present Weather: Continuous, moderate rain
    Visibility: 4km to 9km - Moderate Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 8/8
    Ground State: Ground wet

    Notes of yesterday weather - 5/2/20: Cloudy with cu and ns. Light showers during the morning clearing in the mid morning. Some light drizzle at times in the afternoon. Drizzle and light rain from the late afternoon. A cool day with the temperature a little variable from the early hours to the early afternoon. Stable and near average dew point early in the day before rising during the morning, became generally stable in the late morning and then fell during the afternoon and was close to average. In the evening the dew point slowly fell whilst remaining close to average. Relative humidity was stable and near average early in the day becoming moderately high from mid morning to late afternoon and back to near average in the evening. Light SSW to SSE winds early in the day, S to SW in the early morning after S to SSE winds, S to SSW from 6 am and S to SSE winds from the mid morning. In the mid evening winds became S to SW.

    Today: Light rain in the early hours of today followed by light to moderate rain with heavy falls at times. Light S to SW winds from early today with W to SW winds in the last half-hour becoming WNW to SW. Near average temperature overnight with the temperature falling very slowly this morning. Dew point have been rising and is near average. Relative humidity have been moderately high today.

    Rainfall today:
     
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  41. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    A copy and paste from a post I made elsewhere:

    " Things still going according to plan rain-wise (so far anyway) in SEQ with heavy showers/rain areas having spread down the coastal fringe this morning & mostly lighter falls inland. In fact, the sounding of roaring of rain on the roof at times woke me up earlier this morning.

    So where you are in SEQ will determine what kind of rainfall to expect today :

    NEAR-COASTAL ZONE – Heavy showers/rain areas/possible localised thunder with flash flooding in lower lying areas….. although the more extensive activity may temporarily contract into southern parts later today, it could redevelop along the coastal fringe after that.
    24hr accumulations up to tomorrow morning of 100-250mm will probably be common BUT some spots may receive much higher or lower than that range.

    INLAND – Light to moderate showers/rain areas at times with possible localised thunder but the majority of this activity will probably gradually ease back from inland areas this afternoon or evening.
    24hr accumulations up to tomorrow morning of 20-80mm will probably be common BUT some spots may receive much heavier or lighter falls than that.

    When I say “near-coastal zone”, I generally mean places closer to the coast than about Brisbane and “inland” as areas between about Brisbane and Toowoomba (this post concentrates on the SE Coast district)…. but it’s hard to draw a clear line dividing both zones because the decrease in rainfall amounts as you go further away from the coast is a progressive one.

    The main reason why the coast is likely to get heavier falls is because persistent heavy showers/rain areas streaming in off the sea (and enhanced by extra uplift as they come over land as well as wind convergence from a coastal surface trough), should add to the background lighter rainfall from the inland upper level trough.
    But it’s worth noting that the coastal trough is likely to be broader today, more in line with the ACCESS-C model’s recent scenarios, which may allow a more ENE wind flow and heavier rainfall to penetrate slightly further inland than just the extreme coastal fringe.

    As for tomorrow (Friday), the most likely scenario at this stage is for the majority of the heavier rainfall to clear out of the area later in the morning… before some random pop-up shower/thunderstorm activity redevelops during the daytime and afternoon. But how localised or widespread this will be, is subject to change and partly depends on what happens before it.

    RAINFALL SO FAR:
    50-100mm has now been recorded by many raingauges near the northern and central SEQ coast so far since 9am Wed with localised falls exceeding 100mm in the northern Sunshine Coast and southern Wide Bay areas.
    As you move further S and W of these areas, amounts taper off.

    So yes, I’m still sticking to my opinion that heavy falls with flash flooding risk will be present today into early tomorrow but mainly confined to near the coast… albeit with a possible *temporary* shrinking in area at some stage later today. "
     
  42. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    Drizzled all night here; that surely has to soak in.
    Dove's wet - stoic little bugger that she is.
    Frog's singing up a storm in the drain pipes.

    But as to what's going to happen - no idea, the bloody ants are gone - we're all doomed!!!!
     
  43. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky One of Us

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    About 12mm of light to moderate rain so far for this event. Looking forward to well over 100mm during the next week. Great opportunity here to make up some ground and make a lot of people on the Downs very happy.
     
  44. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    Can't agree with you more nature. All this hyped up media talk on a deluge, it's just a couple of bloody good showers which is normal for February
     
  45. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    They probably gone hiding in the rubbish bin, lid firmly shut. LOL
    Another comfortable 22mm last 24hrs, not too heavy, soaking nicely, grass height creeping and growing to knee high in places.
     
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  46. LDRcycles

    LDRcycles Addicted

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    Trying hard not to be bitterly disappointed here, Coops Corner at the top of the Noosa River catchment has had a whopping 388mm so far, just 40k down the road we've had "only" 92mm. Of course I'm very grateful for any rain, and our tanks are full, but we need a LOT more to get the creeks running properly and replenish the soil moisture.

    I did have a feeling in the lead up to this event that we would miss the best of it, but I thought the big falls would be south of us, not north. Hopefully some more to come in the next week to set us up for winter.
     
  47. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Oh dear, that entire trough seems to be weakening and contracting south very quickly. This could be over for Brisbane and areas north within the hour.
     
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  48. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    ACCESS-C has been suggesting that. But it may only be temporary as per this bit from my previous post based on ACCESS-C:
    " although the more extensive activity may temporarily contract into southern parts later today, it could redevelop along the coastal fringe after that. "
     
  49. Adam Ant

    Adam Ant Addicted

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    Location:
    Western side of Toowoomba
    Beautiful 21mm of soaking rain over the last 24hrs on the west side of Toowoomba. It pretty much rained all night. No run off at all so it is all soaking in. 26mm for the event. Fingers crossed I can crack 50mm by the end of the weekend.
     
  50. HarleyB

    HarleyB Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2020
    Messages:
    24
    Likes Received:
    167
    Location:
    Bald Hills, QLD
    An even 60mm for us in Bald Hills to 9am. Fantastic result and much more than I expected going to bed last night.
    Looking to today, I have no idea what to expect. Progs are still saying up to 100mm, but I honestly can't see it, I think 30mm is probably a more realistic target for the next 24 hours, at least on the northside. But as always, this is Queensland summer so anything could happen.
     
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