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Storm SEQLD/NENSW - Areas of heavy rain, showers and storms - February 5-12, 2020

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Seabreezes, Feb 4, 2020.

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  1. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Heavy rain up here on the northern end of that band. Should be some good amounts for southern Brisbane down to the border in the next couple of hours.
     
    DDstorm, emkae, Seabreezes and 4 others like this.
  2. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    133.4mm for the event here, nothing biblical, just solid soaking rain. Places to our immediate south would have easily cracked the 200mm mark though I'd imagine.
     
  3. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    93mm here. Looks like the vast bulk has headed south and good luck with that.

    126mm total.
     
  4. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    Hey Ken do you have a facebook that you post your forecasts on similar to here? Over the years I have sung your praises/accuracy to the pilots and flight instructors at work and one of them asked if you have a FB he can follow. :D @Ken Kato
     
  5. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    45.1mm the past 12hrs here at Salisbury....Stable Swamp Creek behind St Brendans football club has broken it's banks and spread near the fields but still abit off troubling Beaudesert Rd currently (rain has eased here at the moment so shouldn't get near it). Behind Bunnings at Rocklea the road is closed due to flooding, but it won't take much for that to be open again if the rain doesn't pick up again soon.
     
  6. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Thanks Nic Bri :) Yeah South Brisbane Storms. Not the best weather for VFR flights this morning!
     
  7. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Will be interesting to see how significant or insignificant the potential redevelopment of coastal activity may be today after the initial southward clearance/contraction of the current activity.

    On one hand, you have the diurnal convective effect helping things along during the middle of the day and afternoon (as well as the extra wind convergence overnight near the coast)... but on the other hand, the upper trough's forecast to gradually start flattening out later today to our west which means a gradual decrease in broadscale forcing and therefore the more widespread steady rain areas, as well as some convective overturning from this morning.

    What's often happened in these setups when widespread morning rain areas have contracted south is that after the initial clearance, redevelopment of a coastal zone of a more convective type of activity (rather than the previous widespread rain areas) occurs during the day or afternoon, especially near the coast as convection starts moving down the coast.... which is likely what ACCESS-C is forming.
    The timing of the increase in that potential (more localised) redevelopment remains uncertain though... anywhere from late this morning to overnight tonight.
     
  8. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    Cool thanks Ken!
     
  9. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    Mostly light to moderate rain overnight with brief periods of heavy rainfall until 9am this morning with 44mm here at Caboolture. 55.5mm at my parents place at Elimbah. Still a very slight spitty drizzle still occurring after the main clearance of the rain. Looking forward to see the potential redevelopment later today/tonight. A bit of sun will definitely help things out. But, I don't like those chances.

    Also for some interest of the coral sea disturbance here's the GFS ensemble of 91P potential Tracks.
     
  10. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    The ground here must be starting to get a decent amount of moisture in it now, the earthworms have started seeking refugee on the higher ground of our concrete....saw atleast 3 of them on the concrete


     
  11. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Had a look at 18z GFS and it's beyond the realm of the fantastic.

    TWO cyclones hitting eastern Australia well into the southern latitudes .
     
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  12. Krissyleigh

    Krissyleigh Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    104mm last 24hrs @ Maryborough West.
    A grand total so far of 170mm up to thursday 9am.
    Parents at Tiaro had 220mm for 24hrs up to today.

    (Edit day.. It's Thursday , not Friday:( )
     
    #162 Krissyleigh, Feb 6, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
  13. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    HaHaHa @Nature's Fury you forgot to mention the "third" one brewing out in the Pacific at Tau+384hr that is heading west!
    I acknowlege it may not even get to the Australian AOR but it is rather entertaining at this point in time.
    Amazing stuff that the GFS dreams up.
    [​IMG]
     
  14. DarrylS

    DarrylS Early Days

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    I just ticked over to 80mm since midnight here in Camp Hill (inner eastern suburb of Brisbane).
     
  15. Tsunami

    Tsunami Addicted

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    67mm here. Wheres the tomatoe sauce lol
    I watched the rain bands come in over night. It was like watching grass grow. Took ages
     
  16. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Sure enough, the clearer air left behind in the wake of this morning's southward contracting activity has slowly but partially filled in with activity of a more convective nature.

    The lower level stuff moving in from the NE and deeper/taller stuff moving in from the NW clearly showing there's backing winds with height and therefore, upslide.

    I'd say there might be some fluctuations in the extent of this activity for the rest of today with some temporary increases and decreases…. but it remains quite possible that a narrow zone near the coastal fringe may see another increase in heavy showers overnight tonight into early Friday morning (but less away from the coast). Some places could also experience brief localised thunder.
    If this activity occurs, this type of persistent activity in the same areas would significantly add to the rainfall accumulations that have already occurred in that zone this morning (many locations near the coast have exceeded 50mm over the last 24hrs up to time of writing this, with some locations exceeding 140mm so far in that timeframe).

    As for the Coral Sea tropical systems, regardless of landfall or not, I don't think it's out of the question that there might be some reasonably powerful long-period swells developing later next week along the NSW and far southern QLD coast if one or more Coral Sea systems end up tracking south enough as a strong system and doesn't weaken beforehand or get whisked away to New Zealand first.
     
  17. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    KK loves being stalked on FB lol
     
  18. Krissyleigh

    Krissyleigh Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Got caught last night just south of pineapple hill , with tree's on the highway.. couldn't see a car in Bush , so I'd say, the ground was very saturated for the big gum to land on highway.. also driving yesterday down to tiaro opposite wanless paddock (glenorchy) , the torrent thru there at 430pm was huge.. off to tiaro today , so will be interesting to see what's water logged etc..
     
  19. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri One of Us

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    Hahaha I know it did sound a bit stalkery! Rest assured Ken I am not even on FB so don't worry you are safe!
     
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  20. Peter Meadows

    Peter Meadows Hard Yards

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    A whole 3 eh? I must have over 100 on my driveway/patio right now.
    80mm so far today.
     
  21. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Mustabeen chased out by all them ants LOL
    Another gentle 20mm since 9am. You beauty.
     
  22. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    likely was more then that, but I only happened to look on a small section of all the concrete we have here.and saw them there, didn"t go looking for any more.

    one of the worms was being eaten / attacked by a whole heap of ants, does that count as the same thing......lol

    56.1mm since midnight for Salisbury currently.
     
  23. HarleyB

    HarleyB Hard Yards

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    Rain here in Bald Hills has been quite heavy for the last 40 minutes, I rushed out to the manual gauge at the end of the first heavy lot and we're up to 30mm since 9am, so anything from here on is a bonus for mine. Would love to crack 200mm this month and we should be well on the way to it by the time this system is finished with us.
     
    #173 HarleyB, Feb 6, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
  24. Big T

    Big T Hard Yards

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    you might get 500mm this month harley. if one of those follow up systems crosses , anywhere north of here, lookout. lovely chunky showers at albany ck today , havnt checked yet , but id be guessing 80-90mm since 3am.
     
  25. Big T

    Big T Hard Yards

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    I under estimated , now I’ve checked , there has been 120mm in the gauge since 3am. And the creek behind us coming out of the bunyaville is quite a bit higher than in was in that last wet.
     
  26. MerryWeather

    MerryWeather Early Days

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    50mm for Mt Tarampa so far - if you've had enough rain at your place please send it out our way, as dams that don't get any runoff are still empty.
     
  27. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just started up again here on the Southern GC
    Already 70mm+with the radar suggesting at east another solid couple of hours
    Likely end up with over 120 since midnight
     
  28. Cookiemonsta

    Cookiemonsta Early Days

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    Haven’t emptied my Nylex gauge yet but looks to be around 30-40mm mark since this event started here at Mount Hallen/Esk. Still raining and grass has gone nuts from last month. Unfortunately a lot of this isn’t that heavy over Wivenhoe/Somerset so the combined SEQ dam levels are @56 % with Wivenhoe standing at 42.5 %. I would put money down that water restrictions will still come into effect from mid year if we don’t get substantial falls over the main catchments in the next month or so. Really a shame considering how much rain has fallen in general over the south east but not over the dams where it’s needed to bump up the combined totals.
     
  29. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    140mm all up here but already surpassed by Brisbane/far SEQ. See what I mean? Big events are an effort up here...not so much down there.

    Yea they've had a lot more than us down Tiaro way. Personally I'd love to see us hit with some sort of catastrophic rain event with major flooding or a decent cyclone. Something like they experienced in Townsville last year would be cool although would suck if you live near the river or in a low-lying area. Or something like the great flood of 1893. Personally, I would love the attention this place would get from such an event as it would far and away surpass anything else that happens here.
     
  30. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    44.9 mm for the 24 hours to 9am today, and 79.2 mm since 9am as of 6:48 pm (on manual gauge). A total of 121.1 mm since 3am. 0.8 mm has fallen since then according to the automatic gauge.
     
  31. Blowin’

    Blowin’ Early Days

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    Where are you? Please update your profile ta
     
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  32. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us

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    5.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am here at South West Rocks.

    25.2mm since 9am from what has largely been light to steady rain. I expected today to be a bit wetter here than it has been so far (not to a great degree, just thought we'd be sitting around 40-45mm by now). The heavier falls haven't really moved southwards of Nambucca Heads yet (with the exception of some localised places inland of Kempsey / Port which have benefited from orographic enhancement).
    100mm+ falls since 9am stretching from the Bellingen/Dorrigo area through Coffs and up to Wooli. Woolgoolga is leading the way in that area, with 183mm since 9am.

    In addition to the warning for Heavy Rain, BOM are now warning for the possibility of damaging winds in the SWW along the Mid North Coast tomorrow: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN21037.shtml

    The flood watch for some river valleys, like the Bellinger, Nambucca and Orara, now advises that there is the potential of moderate to major flooding in those catchments: http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/flood/floodwatch1.shtml
     
    #182 Seabreezes, Feb 6, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2020
  33. Big T

    Big T Hard Yards

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    Mega match, be careful what you wish for. Voodoo gona come and get you before too long and you will be saying, man what was I thinking.
     
  34. Stephen Kunze

    Stephen Kunze Early Days

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    My friend in yandina has recorded 98mm in an hour from that semi stationary storm. Pretty epic
     
  35. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    BOM STW:

    Weather Situation:
    Severe thunderstorms embedded with rain bands are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding over the Sunshine coast and Hinterland areas over the next several hours.

    Locations which may be affected include Maroochydore, Caloundra, Sunshine Coast Hinterland and areas to the southwest of Noosa Heads.

    Yandina, Wappa and Poona Dams have had between 60-80mm in an hour ending 7.30pm.
     
  36. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Something I've noticed is there is a model trend on the latest runs today to start shifting the heaviest falls offshore for the rest of the event, particularly NSW. EC is most pronounced with this, but they all show it to some extent. Still looks like 200-300 mm for most of the NSW coast, but not necessarily some of the biblical falls from earlier. We'll need to see if this trend continues in the next 24 hours or so.
     
  37. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    nah we'll be fine, because such an event will never happen again in my lifetime. Sunshine Coast/Brisbane/Gold Coast yes but not here.

    PS check out the flash flooding over the SC currently, damn like that isn't an annual occurrence for them.
     
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  38. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Hamish says hi.
     
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  39. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Hamish never hit the coast.
     
  40. Snapper22

    Snapper22 Hard Yards

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    Convergence on stapy radar is amazing - mesmerising!
     
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  41. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Can someone tell me why the Gympie radar is such trash? I was comparing both Stapy and Gympie last night and it was like night and day. It's pretty unacceptable as a Doppler. Nice to have the Doppler Wind feature of it, and its up-time is pretty good, but other than that it leaves a lot to be desired. Its almost as though its resolution is still nowhere near of that of Stapy, but I think it's supposed to be?
     
  42. Jon Lomas

    Jon Lomas Hard Yards

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    Looking at the nylex, I'd estimate over 150mm for our place at Chelmer in the Western suburbs since yesterday
     
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  43. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    My point exactly.
     
  44. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    It used to over-exaggerate intensity and now it just seems to be really weak.
     
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  45. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    We will soon need a special Tourism campaign to get visitors to "rain affected" zones like ours!. Spent all evening thus far cancelling bookings here in Maryborough because it rained and looks like more to come. Accommodation businesses will soon have to change our business models - pay when you book or take your chances on the day.
    Dodgy data caused mild panic this morning. BOM River gauge indicated major access to Fraser Coast via Lamington Bridge in Maryborough was about to go under (pic 1). Reality (pic 2) was quite different. Council and BOM were quick to pull the dodgy gauge after I let them know, but damage already done!
    [​IMG]

    Reality: Not even close!!!!

    [​IMG]
     
  46. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    12mm today in the 12hours to 6pm. Still showering but expecting a visit shortly from my yellow friend just to the North.
    Loving the weather and the possibility of our Coral Sea mate coming over next weekend. :emoji_ocean:
     
  47. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    86.9mm for Salisbury since midnight
     
  48. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us

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  49. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Light rain periods during the morning stopping in the early afternoon before light to moderate showers and rain periods with heavy falls at times during the afternoon. Light rain periods in the early evening tonight until 7pm. A cool day with a maximum temperature of 24 C and the temperature was a little variable in the afternoon. The dew point continued to rise during the morning, became moderately high in the late morning and peaked at 22 C at midday. From the afternoon the dew point fell and returned to near average from the mid afternoon.

    Relative humidity became high from the morning and have continued to remain high through to tonight. The relative humidity was mostly stable from early this morning. Light S to SW winds from the morning, some calm winds at times during the week, some S to SE winds in the afternoon, W to SSW later in the afternoon, SW to E winds tonight, W to SW winds in the last hour with some calm winds tonight.
     
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  50. Krissyleigh

    Krissyleigh Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    I actually brought this up today in discussion , about "what if" anything of serious nature happened here. We were on the edge of the "tornado" Nov 2018 and we struggled for 4 days with the clean up we had and what occurred. Yes I know yengarie was utter devastation , and we were one of the lucky homes to survive after Copenhagen bend.

    These homes in the burra would be demolished. My roof would probably go, my road floods at both ends , but I'm up high tho I get everyone's water off Mary / biggenden road.. my last thoughts of torrential rain (low), was being a kid , school holidays in the early 80's. As much as I have a passion for weather , I'd love to just see woolies close for another year... I don't like wind haha
     
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