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Storm SEQLD/NENSW - Areas of heavy rain, showers and storms - February 5-12, 2020

Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Seabreezes, Feb 4, 2020.

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  1. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    Buderim and Maroochydore copping a bath at the minute. Edging it's way here. We don't need it but it beats "sultry" - loving the weather.
     
  2. Krissyleigh

    Krissyleigh Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well any significant rainfall there , the Mary river rises :D
     
  3. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah, I've heard a couple of stories from people who were in that tornado in 2018, I have to agree it's not something I'd like to be in the middle of. Cat 4 or 5 or even a 3 TC might sound exciting to a storm chaser or weather enthusiast but being in the middle of one would probably change a lot of people's minds, and add to that the widespread damage costs. Cat 1 or 2 would be fun though.
     
  4. Dylan Kearney

    Dylan Kearney Early Days

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    Really enjoy this period of weather for a change. I’m curious in regards to the current activity running roughly N/S along the SEQ coast. Is this the through lingering and aligning in this direction or is this just uplift and moisture. If so, why aren’t they moving inland this evening?
     
  5. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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  6. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Stable temperature in the last few hours and the dew point have been near average and stable also tonight. High and very stable relative humidity tonight and is currently 92%. Winds have been light WSW to SSW.

    Last 24 hours:

     
  7. DDstorm

    DDstorm Hard Yards

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    Heavy lookin cell comin over Sanctuary Cove and headin South.
     
  8. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    63mm in the 24 hours to 6am . Cloudy, spitting, awesome !
     
  9. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    93.3mm event total so far for Salisbury....hoping we get to crack triple figures today, not that we really need it as the yard is saturated, but would be a nice milestone to pass. Another day off work for me today which means another day without an income....shouldn’t really complain though after having such a good dry run for so long beforehand.....plenty on the land know that no income feeling worse then just a few days off
     
  10. Rod H

    Rod H One of Us

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    It's been raining all night here in Maudsland in the GC Hinterland.
    Received 95 mm up to 0550 hrs this morning and it's still raining.
    Love this dull rainy weather , don't need any excuse now to relax in front of TV and enjoy a drink or three or even 4 later in the arvo. Can't do anything outside so might as well put my feet up and relax and enjoy the rain.
    Had a good feeling that it was going to bucket down so spent 4 hours on the ride on 2 days ago mowing my paddock quite low in anticipation that I would not be able to mow for quite a few days .
    I've lived in the Gold Coast Hinterland in this house for 54 years and I reckon this weather event is just like we used to get every year in February/ March 20 years ago.
    This is the sort of weather that one bungs a chook in the oven and enjoys the smell of a roast cooking on this cool wet day, love it !! Have to go a buy a chook now .
     
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  11. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    after losing several front windows in our house in a storm about 5 years ago and having Cat 1 strength winds shaking the house to the point I actually feared for the first time ever that we might lose the roof off our place, topped with having 2 kids petrified and crying because they are so scared of what’s occurring around them, be careful what you wish for is all I’ll say. If you live in an old house then those places aren’t built to withstand that sort of stuff (25 years as a carpenter renovating houses has shown me that), the only thing saving many of those old homes half the time is the weight of the timber they are built from and a few thick nails that hold better into the hardwood then modern nails do into pine framing. There is very little in the way of tie down in most old houses and even not a great deal in structural bracing really either, a far cry from what we do today with new construction.
     
  12. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    That sucks you cant work ? Are you a tradie? I noticed how light the traffic was on the M1 when i finished work yesterday at 3pm. I'm presuming the amount of tradies who stayed home due to the weather?
     
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  13. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    I'm still at a loss as to why they always include the chance of thunderstorms in these type of set ups when it rarely occurs? Other than the Lifted Index having good values, Sweat ,Cape K index isnt showing high enough values to warrant thunderstorms?
     
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  14. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    yeah mate I’m a carpenter, If I don’t work I don’t earn any income.....and yeah I reckon the roads would be less on quite a few vehicles because so many others are in the same boat. Sometimes we get lucky and have indoor work to go do on wet days, at the moment all our work is outdoors which means unfortunately no work can be done in these conditions....it’s not fun or safe and you end up ruining your tools getting them wet, so best not working in it.
     
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  15. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    What's making this stay offshore?
     
  16. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Torrential in Sydney, loving it. Hopefully falling where it's needed most. **** off fires.
     
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  17. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    To be honest Gleno, there have been storms everyday so far. I haven't noted them all but they have been there, nothing crazy, but there nonetheless.
     
  18. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    Today we're forecast for 20-40mm. What I'd like to know is, how's that going to happen? There's nothing in the modelling and and the satellite and radar data are confirming that modelling, more or less. I've gotta say if we do get into the 20-40's today it'll be one of the biggest comebacks since Lazarus rose from the dead.
     
  19. Warlock_01

    Warlock_01 One of Us

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    I'd like to know also, where is the 40-80mm coming from to hit the GC.
     
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  20. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    I'm going to say there will be fresh redevelopment later today overland. Instability indices are showing moderate levels of instability this afternoon. Li's -5 Cape around 1000-1200kj. The reason why the rainband is currently moving away is due to the steering winds in the mid levels and upper levels are Westerly. Just the lower level shower/drizzle rubbish are moving onshore.
     
  21. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    I heard thunder last night once while that very heavy rain was near Wappa Dam. However in my mind its not really a 'storm' just because its convection and lightning, and I much prefer the 'rain with local thunder' that they used to forecast for such situations.
     
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  22. Rod H

    Rod H One of Us

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    I live in the GC Hinterland ( Maudsland ) :
    Yesterday until midnight - 54 mm.
    Since midnight until now 7.52am -52 mm.
    Totals for 24 hrs so far = 106 mm and it's still raining
     
  23. GBerg

    GBerg Hard Yards

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    Another 94mm last night here in Noosaville. Takes us upto 218mm for the event.
     
  24. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Eumundi gauge at Sunshine Coast now up to 339mm total over three days.
     
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  25. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Radar and Satellite suggests most of the rain has cleared to sea. Upper level trough is still well west though and forecast to amplify over the next few days, and the low level flow will continue to be onshore, but weaker than it has been or is forecast to be further south in NSW. From about Tuesday though the flow at 850hp seems to turn quite southerly, and the coral sea cyclone approaches - not close enough to be useful, but close enough to cause low level divergence to its SW, so I see continued useful showers until then, and after that little to nothing, despite current BOM forecasts of something like 10-20mm for the rest of the week.

    edit: removed 'near the coast' as upper trough with weaker onshore flow may favor a more even balance of rainfall coastal vs inland.
     
  26. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    Yes I'm in agreeance with that Mike. As Mega has pointed out previously people here that word "storm" and think of the something dangerous. It's easy enough to just forecast showers with possible heavy falls and local thunder.
    I guess if there was some clearing and a bit of heating we might see some convection based thunderstorms develop over the following days. 155 mms of rain so far Sth Tweed Heads
     
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  27. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    Holy moly.....
     
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  28. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    A little thunder and small bit of lightning here at about 11.30pm. I probably think it was a little more pronounced at Buderim/Maroochydore that had some lovely vibrant colours on the 256km Stapy. :thumbs:
     
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  29. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Location:
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    Ferny Grove Weather
    Date: 7 Feb 2020
    Time: 7:50 AM

    Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 20.1 C
    Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.8 C
    Min Ground Temp: 20.5 C
    Rain since 9am yesterday: 93.9 mm

    Temperature: 22.4 C
    Relative Humidity: 92 %
    Dew Point: 21 C
    MSL Pressure: 1014.3 hPa
    Wind Speed: 3 kph - light air
    Wind Direction: NE

    Present Weather: Showers of rain of any intensity ceased in the past hour
    Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
    Cloud Cover: 8/8
    Ground State: Ground moist

    Notes of yesterday weather - 6/2/20: Cloudy with cu and ns clouds. Light rain at times early in the day followed by light to moderate rain with heavy falls at times before light rain periods during the morning. The rain stopped in the early afternoon before light to moderate showers and rain periods with heavy falls at times during the afternoon. Light rain at times during the evening. A cold day with the temperature a little variable in the afternoon. The dew point rose from early in the day and became moderately high in hte late morning, before falling from midday and returned to near average in the mid afternoon. For the rest of the day the dew point fell and at a slower rate in the evening. Moderately high relative humidity early in the day and was high from the morning for the rest of the day. The relative humidity was stagnant during most of the day. Light S to SW winds early in the day with some W to SW becoming WNW to SW winds, some calm winds during the morning and some S to SE winds in the afternoon and W to SSW in the late afternoon. In the evening winds were SW through to E and then S to SW.

    Today: Light showers and rain with moderate falls for 10 minutes at 4:30 am. The minimum temperature was reached at midnight before rising in the early hours. The dew point have been rising also while remaining close to average. Moderately high and stable relative humidity today. Light SSW to W winds in the early hours followed by calm winds before SE to SW winds and calm at times in the early morning and E to NE in the last 2 hours.
     
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  30. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Wet drizzly morning out here, 45mm since 9am yesterday. 67mm event total so far.
    What will it take for that cyclone next week to be closer or is it already decided the STJ gona deliver the remains to NZ?
     
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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    I'm curious about the bias towards noting thunder? The thunder is harmless, the 1billion or so volts with amperage enough to blow your toes off ,I would have thought, would be a bigger concern. So in considering that, if the word storm makes people think of something dangerous then good, they've been warned.
     
  33. DarrylS

    DarrylS Early Days

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    Was this major rain event anticipated a month ago?

    A friend of mine on Facebook asked,
    "What happened to this "no rain for 5 months on the long term radars" when all the fires were hitting?"

    I'm sure there's a great explanation, but how do we respond to people who say that the experts were telling them in January that there wouldn't be decent rain for months, and now the whole east coast is getting smashed by heavy falls? Or was it just the media pushing the 'no rain forecast' narrative and not the experts?

    Thanks. :)
     
  34. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Do bolts in this type of weather ever hit the ground or are they purely cloud to cloud? Much harder to detect a ground strike embedded within an area of rain compared to ground strikes in rain free air out front of a more traditional storm, but I can not recall ever witnessing a ground strike in such conditions.
     
  35. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry One of Us

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    Certainly daytime shrouded bolts are hard to see, particularly at distance.

    This is the current situation east of Fraser Island. As you can see there is a mix of both CG & CC. So in these types of conditions I'd say storms act just like any other storm.

     
  36. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather One of Us

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    I think you'll find that nobody said no rain - what was said was that the chances of getting significant rain were lower than average...Looking back @ the BoM outlook from a few weeks back they stated: "February to April has roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier than average for most of Australia. This means there is no strong shift towards wetter or drier than average conditions for the coming three months for most of the country. Some parts of the east, including scattered areas across Queensland, NSW and the southern NT are slightly more likely to be drier than average."
    This is a wet time of year, so slightly drier than average can still give good falls...so the dice were weighted towards drier...but on this one it looked like the dice fell lucky for some - it happens :) Actually looking further back their outlook in early Jan while fires were raging said: "February to April has roughly equal chances of being wetter or drier than average for most of Australia."
    ...sometimes people don't actually hear what is being said.
     
  37. Krissyleigh

    Krissyleigh Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    12.5mm 9am yesterday til 9am today @ Maryborough West. Brings our total so far this week to 182.5mm . Not really sure what to expect today , maybe a shower or two...
     
  38. HarleyB

    HarleyB Hard Yards

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    We had 140mm in the 24 hours to 9am this morning at Bald Hills, adding to the 60mm we recorded to 9am yesterday, so we certainly got somewhat bullseyed here.That brings our total for 2 days to.... 200mm even! Incredible. Not sure what to expect today here either, a bit of sun brought some chunky looking cumulus overhead and threatened to rain, but nothing came of it... so far.
     
  39. Krissyleigh

    Krissyleigh Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cat 1 would be a start for me. I just read a newspaper article and like to know where our river bursted the bank ??:D
    I'm glad everyone else down south is getting wet , started out like we were hogging it all ( which we were haha ) .
     
  40. Rainbomb

    Rainbomb Hard Yards

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    Only 10mm here in my gauge in Caboolture to 9am this morning. As yesterdays rain during the day was mostly to the south of us and the storms on the Sunshine Coast last night weakened and fizzled out significantly as they moved south towards us so basically all of it was just drizzle! 21.5mm at my parents place in Elimbah. We'll see what today brings :)
     
  41. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Here is a series of model charts all based on the Euro EC model 12Z run looking at the 5 day totals 2200 AEST 6 Feb to 11 Feb, to look deeper into the variation of the rainfall forecasts.

    Pic 1 is the Deterministic EC model run showing an area roughly Grafton up to Rainbow Beach and westwards out to Miles.
    It shows SEQ coast strip around 100mm, Gold Coast hinterland and a patch near Gympie 150-250mm, NE NSW possibly up to max over 500mm.

    Now to the EC ensemble. Pic 2 is the same area and same time period ensemble members 1 to 25, and Pic 3 is ensemble members 26 to 50.

    Pic 4 is shows the ensemble average of the 50 ensemble members (top left), ensemble spread (top right standard deviation - measure of variance), ensemble minimum (bottom left), and ensemble maximum (bottom right).

    The individual ensemble members show it is possible though low probability that some areas inland of the coast particularly southern SEQ could get some decent falls.
    The ensemble average gives a good guide, but as Ken has said earlier it tends to smear out the possible high totals.
    The ensemble minimum suggests at least 50 mm along the coast and 20-30 mm inland. Some areas may get the minimum but most areas should exceed the minimum.
    The ensemble maximum suggests the possible though low probability totals up to 200 mm and maybe 400mm to 500mm southern GC and NE NSW. Some areas may get the maximum, but most areas won't get near that amount.
    An interesting comparison is the deterministic bullseye of 600 mm around Byron Bay is close to the ensemble maximum so to me that says that bullseye total in the deterministic run is probably quite optimistic.
    The ensemble spread also suggests quite substantial uncertainty in the totals around Gold Coast and northern NSW.

    All of the above interpretation assumes:
    1. The actual rainfall will be somewhere within the range of the ensemble.
    2. The forecast updates do not change significantly - and they may well will. This sort of assessment is best for short range, and I am probably stretching it to far to take this out to five days.






     
  42. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    I guess when you put it like that Bone Dry it all makes sense. Maybe a chance of local lightning might be better haha. The Bom have to cover themselves I suppose, eliminating the clause of "possible local thunder" just in case one of those very rare CGs did hit somebody you would never hear the end of it
     
  43. TrentG

    TrentG Hard Yards

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    Thanks for that @Flowin - a fair amount of effort there. Certainly helps show the variances, and for a novice like me, something to keep in mind when taking a look at the models from run to run!
     
  44. Kazza47

    Kazza47 One of Us

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    Well throw the radar away; in Kingaroy it is surely belting down at the moment.
     
  45. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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    Loving that!! Grow little peanuts......grow!!!:emoji_umbrella:
     
  46. chunky

    chunky Old n' Crusty

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    It has been this way since those huge hail storms that Sydney copped years ago. If they say chance or possibility rather than nothing, then they have covered that it could happen. That's my feelings on it.
     
  47. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Can see blue sky to the north of me on the GC . And some convection developing further to the west of us which indicates we may get those storms after all .
     
  48. Krissyleigh

    Krissyleigh Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    So much for me thinking showers today , ( thinking of on and off annoying showers) already hit 20mm in the last 30mins or so.. still coming down..
     
  49. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus One of Us

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    94mm here so far for the event here in Strathpine.

    So far we have had 300mm this year, which is half of what we had in total for 2019.
     
  50. Tsunami

    Tsunami Addicted

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    Any idea how our friends at Stanthorpe. Applethorpe and warack have done. Are the dams filling out there
     
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