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Discussion in 'Systems & Events' started by Seabreezes, Feb 4, 2020.
I've seen two ant nests so far that are over a foot high in Kingaroy, something big could be coming.
Not enough rain yet to make any difference to dam levels yet unfortunately.
If they get any bigger they be dressed in shirts with helmet like the ones next to the highway in the NT.
Looks to me 128k Stapy is filling up.
Still dry in Gatton but getting darker.
looks likes a decent soaking where you are
So yesterday saw an animated model that showed the TC next week getting close to NSW.
It further showed another TC hitting frazer island on 21st
Is this still been forcast
I dont take those long range dreams too serious. Once models sort of agree after a few runs one can wake up the demons of the media.
Between 5 to 15mm in the last 24 hours. West of Warwick with the lesser amounts (as is the case normally). Connolly Dam with 10mm
Penrith (Western Sydney) forecast for tomorrow. I've never seen that much rain in the forecast before.
Sydney City "only" expecting up to 200mm
Hi Tsunami, Family in Stanthorpe have had 13mm so far. Still nothing in their dams.
Thats no good at all. Lets hope they fill soon
Yea going camping on 21st so last thing we need
Still haven't cracked the 100.0mm event total yet here at Salisbury, currently sitting on 98.8mm....so close yet so far...lol
Very lucky to receive another 25mm here today from a slow-moving shower along with a couple of rumbles of thunder. This brings my total for the event to 164mm. Looks like more of the same over the next few days at least though I'd expect the heaviest falls to be over far southern parts of SEQ.
Models seem pretty well aligned in suggesting the current shower activity off Brisbane will reach the coast tonight but not penetrate very far inland. It's not really until overnight Saturday that the second round of heavy rain returns as the offshore trough deepens in response to the new upper low amplifying over NSW. Best falls at this stage look to be from about Brisbane southwards, though it's still a little touch and go as to just how coastal it'll be.
Nope, gone. First cyclone makes a curve toward and away from Aus, probably about Oma distance. Second cyclone heads to NZ and makes slight curve toward Aus before veering away again.
I'm betting that second one (if there even is one - not all models suggest there will be) will go S or SE. The journey is just too far without inevitably hitting some obstacle like a big shortwave along the way.
The forecast cyclones are still over a week away, a lot can happen in that time.
WOW, imagine all that runoff around Sydney when most if it is bitumen & concrete.
Be watching with interest, young fella lives in Liverpool on 22nd floor. What a view he will have.
1mm since 9am on the GC. Far from the 40-80mm what was expected, see what happens overnight. 30-50 tomorrow and Sunday 45-90mm.
EC forecast is suggesting a fair potential for lightning tomorrow and Sunday....
In contrast to other areas of the northern Mid North Coast, the forecast heavy rain along the local stretch of coast didn't eventuate overnight / into this morning, so that kept totals about the local coast below 50mm. We received 38.8mm here in the 24hrs to 9am this morning (which is among the lowest totals along the NENSW coast).
8.4mm since 9am, with that pretty much all coming from a passing moderate to heavy shower early this afternoon.
Maybe we'll have better luck here with the potential second wave of heavy rain this weekend (EC and GFS are keen, but ACCESS-R is not interested at all).
The highest 24hr to 9am falls among BOM's gauges on the Mid North Coast were:
231mm Bellingen (Crystal Creek)
209mm Spicketts Creek
198mm Woolgoolga Dam
Minor flood warnings are current for the Bellinger and Orara Rivers.
There’s actually a bit of a shelf cloud on that shower inbound off Mooloolaba
Wappa probably gets the award for the dam most likely to spill in seq...
Which places in town do you think could be safe enough to be used as shelters if such an event like a high-cat TC ever occurred here? The town hall, maybe a couple of the churches are the only ones I can think of. I know the Plaza would be useless since they can't even keep a bit of water out.
Biggenden....no-one/nothing likes going there. Also my prime hiding spot when the Zombie Apocalypse occurs.
Haha yeah, I've often wondered about heading west also if something major was ever to occur here. Biggenden get some ripper storms during the storm season though, so it's not all bad!
The dream/nightmare scenario is the TC fitting neatly between Fraser and Hervey Bay. Urangun, then would be returned to the sea
A light shower in the late morning, the middle of the day and tonight with 1 mm since 9am after 93.9 mm in 24 hours to 9am. A much warmer day with a maximum temperature of 29 C. The temperature was variable in the morning and less variable in the afternoon with cloudy periods. The dew point rose during the morning and became moderately high in the late morning before becoming stable in the afternoon but was a little variable from mid morning to mid afternoon. From the late afternoon the dew point fell and became stable and near average tonight.
The relative humidity remained high and stable until the mid morning and was moderately high through to tonight and a little variable in the late morning and early afternoon. Light E to SE winds before NE to SE winds from the mid morning, E to NE in the afternoon, SSE to SE earlier this evening, then E to SE and calm from 8pm.
Last 24 hours:
Not to mention the epic flooding for SE QLD!
When they used to get a few more cyclones that made landfall in that region, the Fraser/Hervey Bay thing, because of the island/mainland boundaries was the legendary biggy! Never happened of course.
I would hope they would open the old tafe , as it seems pretty sturdy ? Its just sitting there empty. This is what we were speaking about where and when.. I already have a fire plan in place and if I was under threat to go straight to the town hall . Not for a cyclone tho..
Haha station square , no way. Use to work there and leaks and the roof could only blow off and do the owners a favour .
They probably would make riverside college an evac point , seems new enough..
Last point of call , head West.
Family "old timers" always talk about how cyclones don't get sucked between the island. Always go around or cut across up north. My uncle "old timer" talks a lot about a low / cyclone that came in around Bundy and looped back out Maryborough as a cat 1 or 2. Can't think of the name. He said , it was a rough ride , remembers the house lifting off the stumps at aubinville .. that is stuff ( I won't swear haha ) I don't want to experience .
It was with Beth or Debbie in 76. Did quite a bit of damage at Winfield north of Bundy. I remember getting let out of school at lunch all because of silly sideways rain. Thought it was brilliant that school got called off early all because of rain!!!!
Holy smoke the dew point is up there
22.7c with a dew point of 22.1
Closest i have ever seen
Looking decidedly grey outside with a forecast to match. Like it centurion, like it.
7mm in the 24hrs to 6am.
Wappa dam is already spilling, and also lake Macdonald, Enoggera, little Nerang, and Gold Creek.
No rises yet in Somerset or Wivenhoe.
Lockyer valley dams still below 5%.
Quite dark and just started increasing in rain intensity. Even a long low rumble. Noice
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 8 Feb 2020
Time: 9:15 AM
Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 22.2 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 29.4 C
Min Ground Temp: 21 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 3.5 mm
Temperature: 24.9 C
Relative Humidity: 85 %
Dew Point: 22.2 C
MSL Pressure: 1011.6 hPa
Wind Speed: 3 kph - light air
Wind Direction: SSE
Present Weather: State of sky generally unchanged during preceding hour
Visibility: 20km to 39km - Very Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 7/8
Ground State: Ground moist
Notes of yesterday weather - 7/2/20: Cloudy periods with cu and sc clouds with ci and ac clouds in the afternoon. Light showers in the late morning, middle of the day and during the evening. The temperature slowly rose from midnight after reaching the minimum temperature. Variable temperature during the morning and to a lesser extent in the afternoon with the passing clouds. Close to average but rising dew point from early in the day, became moderately high in the late morning before stabilsing in the afternoon. The dew point was a little variable from the mid morning to mid afternoon. From the late afternoon the dew point before slowly rising during the evening close to average. High relative humidity and stable relative humidity until the mid morning and was moderately high for the rest of the day. Light SSW to W winds in the early hours, then calm winds, SE to SW winds and calm at times during the early morning. During the morning were E to SE winds, NE to SE from mid morning, E to NE in the afternoon, SSE to SE in the early evening, then E to SE followed by calm winds in the late evening.
Today: A light shower in the early morning. A warm morning with the temperature only falling slowly in the early hours of the day. The dew point fell slowly close to average before rising from 3am and is now moderately high this morning. High and very stable relative humidity today and is currently at 91%. Light S to SW winds, SSW to SW from 3am and calm at times before E to SE winds in the last hour.
13.6mm here at Caboolture up to 9am this morning. 18mm at my parents in Elimbah farm. Constant light to moderate rain fell most of the night and early this morning and recently some sunlight making feel extremely muggy. This afternoon and tonight looks fantastic for rain and heavy storms with the strengthening upper low increasing instability further.
So which direction is the weather going to build from this afternoon? Will it approach from the ocean or inland? Hope everyone gets a soaking!!
Shower trains developing over the Wide Bay at the moment area moving south should be of interest for the Sunshine Coast and north of Brisbane for later. Gold Coasters have a better chance of rainfall coming in from NE like what is currently happening.
'Round 2' of the rain event in SEQ begins this afternoon. It actually looks more like a really promising storm set-up with a big risk of heavy falls. CAPE is up to 1200-1400 across SEQ, a little cold air intrusion in the uppers, a deep easterly inflow to the mid levels, and turning winds with height give chunky helicity of -20 to -80 inland this evening. No wonder BSCH is going for storms likely and severe storms possible across all of SEQ. That suggests to me widespread rain and storm areas with potentially very heavy rain under some cells. It looks like these heaviest falls will be confined to the trough area. How much we get and how long it lingers depends on how quickly the trough moves offshore.
* GFS moves it very slowly from the ranges offshore from this afternoon into Monday morning with falls of 50-200 mm for SEQ - falls increasing the further you go into the SE corner of SEQ.
*Access-G has almost the same but the highest falls are 300mm over Tweed, but moves the trough offshore on Sunday night.
* EC has 80-150 mm for SEQ, but has the highest falls of 400 mm on a southern border bullseye. It's forecasting the trough to move offshore during Sunday with storms giving us further rain on Monday. Considering it has heavy rain areas over SEQ right now and into this afternoon, I'm not sure how accurate this will turn out to be.
* BOM is going for 45-70 for Brisbane today, 30-60 tomorrow and 25-50 on Monday so 100-180 in total.
I wouldn't be too concerned with the apparent 'clearance' on the radar right now. Watch the rain band arcing through Roma to Narrabri and its progression east. That appears to be the trough line. Things should kick off into tonight.
Excellent information, many thanks. Now I know what to look for.
Awesome NF. Great detail and really paints the picture for the next couple days. Also means continuing no work either. Well I will be enjoying the weather. Thx again
Access-C for SEQ and NENSW (posted on HSC) to Sunday night:
What an incredible waste of water with the heavy falls offshore.
Agreed. You'll be repeating yourself when that cyclone teases eastern Aus next week.
Beautiful ground wetting 'slightly heavier than mist' rain is currently falling right now in Abbotsford.
Pity my pots are almost water logged. But real gardens will be loving this.
Don't be harsh on yourself; pots are not as easy as garden beds for me; I dabble with pots but fruit trees & vegies keep me sane, lol.
At least there's moisture in the atmosphere; which can help produce more rain events that may drift on toland. Gotta start somewhere.
Ug, back to the garden before that rain train in the north descends on us!