SEQLD/NENSW Showers/thunderstorms - 4th and possibly 5th Nov 2019

Discussion in 'Eastern & Marine' started by Ken Kato, Nov 3, 2019.

  1. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Still looks to me like the majority of locations in our region will probably get some shower and/or storm action out of the setup on Monday (with some heavier falls for those who get storms), and perhaps also near or south of the border on Tuesday.... but there's still some uncertainties that warrant caution about extent/severity, namely if any morning cloud or precip on Monday from inland will affect things later on, and the very marginal setup on Tuesday as far as SE QLD goes.

    Strong gusty W to SW winds developing on Tuesday during the middle of the day and afternoon especially about higher ground inland behind the front, as well as the strong southerlies about the islands and coastal fringe behind the coastal component of the change also.

    Here’s how I think things will play out (I've mainly focused on SE QLD here since I haven't had much time to look at NE NSW in great detail) as a front, surface and a couple of upper troughs approach:

    1️⃣ From late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours, a band of showers/storms gradually makes its way across the Downs.
    2️⃣ Monday morning has a bit of uncertainty about how little or much the inland activity reaches SE QLD.
    A fair bit of cloud cover and some patchy decaying remains of the inland activity may reach the eastern Downs/some locations in SE QLD in the early morning hours ahead of the initial decaying upper trough, but you can never tell for sure with these things
    (e.g. if inland steering winds aloft are strong enough, more extensive activity may reach SE QLD… conversely, if the remains weaken too early, they may struggle to even reach the eastern Downs or SE QLD, or it may be late morning even if they do at all).
    3️⃣ Monday afternoon and night therefore also has a bit of uncertainty depending on what happens in point #2 above. The more favoured scenario is for a good band of showers/storms redeveloping inland before marching east into SE QLD in the afternoon or at night, although there’s a bit of a question mark over the timing/duration/extent of this activity. Some scenarios are as early as just after lunchtime while some delay it to the late night-time hours depending on location.
    Although the majority of places currently look likely to get at least something out of this and a few locations may also get a severe storm (with intense rainfall, brief damaging winds, or large hail), the extent of storms as well as severe storms will depend on what happens in the morning.
    If there’s more cloud cover and rainfall than expected in the morning, less locations are likely to be affected by a storm later on, and severe storms become less likely. On the other hand, if there’s less cloud cover and rainfall than expected, it only takes a few clearer gaps that last for a few hours to allow enough heating for numerous storms to develop, some severe (due to the strong shear and some turning in the lower levels near the coast with the NNE seabreeze effect).
    4️⃣ Tuesday looks mainly dry north of the border but it still has a bit of uncertainty.
    At this stage, the more favoured scenario is for the majority of any remaining overnight shower/storm activity to clear the area before dawn leaving most of the day dry (because a drier NW wind flow kicks in before becoming even drier W to SW winds during the middle of the day before the coastal change surges through)... with most of the activity confined to areas south of the border.
    But if there’s more moisture than expected, there’s the slight risk of some additional (but more localised) shower or severe storm activity redeveloping, helped by the sharpening strong upper trough, strong shear and steering winds..... although even if this were to happen, it’d be mainly confined to southern parts of SE QLD and more likely near, and south of the QLD/NSW border. But if it’s too dry, nothing will form except for south of the border.
    5️⃣ Strong gusty W to SW winds developing on Tuesday during the middle of the day and afternoon especially about higher ground inland behind the front, as well as the strong southerlies about the islands and coastal fringe behind the coastal component of the change also.

    So basically looks like a case of a least something for most people unless you're unlucky... but due to the convective nature of the rainfall, some will probably get a lot while some won't.

    Looking very hot later this week too, especially away from the coast with little or no rainfall after the upcoming activity.

    Above are some graphics (I'm not sure I'd treat that hole in the lightning activity on the first map too literally - it may or may not happen).
     
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  2. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky Hard Yards

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    I like the big hole over the southern Downs and northern NSW for flash density/instability. I am not an expert, but I have an early prediction for the driest November on record here. As always, thanks for the awesome charts Ken.
     
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  3. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Had this typed out early this morning but forgot to save, so had to re-do it:

    Would you believe me if I said that low-level moisture is not, I repeat, not the issue tomorrow?! Yes, that's right. Moisture depth even throughout the Downs looks pretty good for a change, better in the north, and probably the best I've seen in a long while, and this is even despite the fact that westerlies exist through the lower-levels. Now with that being said, nearly everything else apart from directional shear looks rather average to me. The rest of the atmosphere through the mids/uppers is quite moist (meaning high & mid-level cloud cover could well be an issue), and on top of that, the mids are quite warm as well (meaning we'd need as much surface heating as possible to help offset this to get the maximum potential out of the day, which imho seems unlikely for the reason mentioned above).

    Now that's not to say that there won't be convective stuff pre-band of showers/storms especially in areas that do manage to see some bright sunshine, but I do think that aspect of it will be a bit of an uphill battle when you consider potential cloud cover and warmish mid-levels. As for the main band of showers/storms due later on in the afternoon/evening, I mean, again, it could be a rather messy band rather than the traditional 'high winds, large hail, electrically-charged' squall line that we should be seeing at this time of year, but let's hope it isn't (I'm personally thinking the former, unfortunately, but we'll see).
     
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  4. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm Hard Yards

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    Morning cloud cover and mid level warmth. . . Not a great combo and yeah Mike a dry run after this for a while hope you get a heavy thunderstorm out there tomorrow to cheer up the Southern Downs.
     
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  5. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah, upper troughs are always such a double edged sword in this region when it comes to severe thunderstorms. On one hand, they destabilise the atmosphere ahead of them but that same destabilisation also often causes excessive cloud cover and early activity ahead of them which all too often arrives here in the morning. Having said that though, it only take a few clearer gaps in the cloud cover that lasts for a couple of hours for speccy severe storms to form if there's enough moisture to help parcels become saturated at lower heights, and therefore become more buoyant through cooling at the slower rate of saturated adiabatic lapse rates.

    Tuesday's potential also looks largely wasted in SE QLD because almost 100 knots of shear develops in the 0-6km layer as the upper trough axis moves through! (as well as the cold air aloft). But by that time, the drier northwesterlies have kicked in followed by even drier west to southwesterlies before the coastal change comes through. If SE QLD were to have any hope of significant storm activity later that day, moisture would have to upgrade significantly in future runs... something that's not impossible but would have to battle major odds.

    Weather setups here are more useless than bin juice half the time.
     
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  6. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Being the pessimist that I am, I've already thrown in the towel for Tuesday. There was the odd run that delayed the arrival of the dryline for a few more hours which would have been ideal but that seems more and more unlikely now. I think the Bureau's slight (20%) chance is about right though.
     
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  7. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury Hard Yards

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    Agree with all of the previous comments, so not much to add. Tomorrow looks very average, but good news is that most of SEQ should see some sort of rain. Cloud cover looks fairly constant tomorrow, mids are way too warm, but decent moisture and steering is strong enough to direct storms out to the coast (15 kts). I'm not expecting a photogenic line though, probably more of a messy rain band.

    Tuesday is no show with those westerlies. Dewpoints plummet to 0 or negative for all of eastern QLD with the dryline right on the coast.

    After this, it looks pretty quiet. In the last few years we have had an active October, quiet November (when statistically and historically we always get our worst storms) and then virtually nothing for the remainder of the season. Unfortunately, it looks like a similar pattern repeating this year. Mid-November looks like a chance according to GFS Ext but very quiet around that.
     
  8. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    My observation's been the same for the last couple or few years as far as coastal SE QLD goes - flurry of activity in October, quiet November, and quiet for the rest of the season except for some good night time light shows around Dec/Jan and the odd dryish storm.
     
  9. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    After scanning the sky this morning on my way to work, it looks like not too much cloud cover, maybe one or two Oktas.
    So perhaps the chances of getting some good heating today is good.
     
  10. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Available moisture looks good (pic1 below for midday today), and K Index OK but not great (pic 2 below also for midday today) both from last nights ECMWF 12Z run.
    And Access C model rain total to 10 pm tonight (pic 3 below) looks like storm rains if/where they do develop may be patchy from the 18Z run (initialised 4am this morning)



     
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  11. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Well I swear there wasn't much cloud between 5:30-6:00 when I was driving, but now cloud cover is closing in fast.:mad:
     
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  12. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Haha that's what I initially thought too when I woke up and peeked out my window from my bed... it was blue sky and cloudless, and I thought maybe it's a lot clearer than expected. Then I got out of bed, checked the satpic and webcams, and found that there was a fair bit more cloud around the area than what my look out the window suggested.
    But still, there are substantial breaks and gaps in that cloud cover at the moment.
     
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  13. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm Hard Yards

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    Mostly fine sky down this way now Flowin, you must be getting the short lived cloud cover we had here earlier. Bring on the heating!
     
  14. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Definitely not short lived here where I am - if anything, the cloud cover's increased here with more cloud moving in from the WNW. But there are still some of those clearer gaps in that cloud cover for now.
    If I recall correctly, I think EC was suggesting less cloud cover this morning for the coastal zone south of the Northern Rivers compared to SE QLD though.
     
  15. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not a fan of the satpic at all this morning, too much cloud, nowhere near as much clear air as I'd like to see to start off a typical storm day, although some of that cloud is rather thin (like it is up here....sunlight shining through still). It does look to be thickening up out over the Downs already though which could become an issue for us as the day wears on.
     
  16. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm Hard Yards

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    Yep like Flowin soon as I opened my trap over it came! Cool NWester blown and thickening cloud crap
     
  17. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    That's the only downside to the accuracy of the more reliable models these days. They can predict weather (or lack thereof) that you don't like, and that can be a bad thing knowing for so long beforehand that it's coming.

    But they are still suggesting activity to affect parts of our region later today. As long as some clearer gaps continue to hang around within the cloudy areas, there'll be a chance. Just a question of whose standards/expectations it'll meet.
     
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  18. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus Hard Yards

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    Damn overcast here at the moment.
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    This is the Access C / EC forecast for 3pm this afternoon, nothing spectacular ,maybe because of cloud cover issue. Tomorrow looks like a northern NSW deal, even so nothing to write home about.
     
  20. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Above is ACCESS-C's accumulated 24hr precip up til 10am tomorrow via WZ where it's currently suggesting a fair proportion of SE QLD to be affected by showers or storms. But it still does pay to be cautious about the extent on days like this so not set in stone yet.
     
  21. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri Hard Yards

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    Sitting down at Manly waiting for the cloud to clear so I can shoot a site...looks like its going to clear down here at the moment. Fingers crossed!
     
  22. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus Hard Yards

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    It has cleared up nicely here, fingers crossed.
     
  23. ezmon

    ezmon First Runs

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    mainly sunny here, muggy
     
  24. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Lovely morning all,
    Sunny muggy here as well, cloudy to the west. 29C & 51%RH.
    Getting a good feeling.
     
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  25. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    EC suggests heavier convection over Sunshine Coast late this afternoon. Not sure why - EC shows enhanced CAPE just to west of SS Coast, but hard to pick why, doesn't seem noticeably hotter or more humid on the surface, and uppers don't seem colder. A hint of low level convergence due to the change, but I didn't think this was included in CAPE calculations.

    Looking at cloud chart I think the trough line is maybe a bit close to SEQ for southern parts, and would prefer SS Coast an Wide Bay.
     
  26. Stephen Kunze

    Stephen Kunze First Runs

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    Well so far there has been very little cloud cover on the mid Sunshine cost region. Blue sky for the last 4 hours and hardly any major clouds in sight. That could be a reason for EC picking up higher convection and precipitation here.
     
  27. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Only thing is, EC's had more morning cloud overall in that area than most other parts of the region.
    At a quick glance at EC's soundings, it looks like one possible explanation is that it appears to have more moisture by mid arvo in that area, both in the upper part of the boundary layer as well as at the surface (closer temp/dewpoint spread). Since EC CAPE uses a parcel rising from any level in the lowest 350hpa of the atmosphere that yields the most amount of CAPE (MU CAPE), it could be that the increased moisture content of the parcels there is causing higher CAPE values.
    But since that's mainly for 4pm, I'd be pretty cautious about treating indices and soundings around that time because they can often be affected by convection/rainfall that forms in its atmosphere by then.
     
  28. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Sun is gone now & the odd drop.
    Optimism too early.
     
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  29. ezmon

    ezmon First Runs

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    30.1C, 66%RH
     
  30. ezmon

    ezmon First Runs

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    no obvious castellanus (yet??)
     
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  31. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Another interesting situation, speshly with local scenarios, how much sun; wind strengths, heights, & direction; moisture at different levels etc etc ?
    I find models, Skew T's etc a bit more hit & miss when looking ahead just a few hours with weather or stormage on the cards like at moment, mainly due to too many variables.
    The big pitchers is, something somewhere is most likely going to happen, & as always, where how much, well from my minds/eye anyhow - Yet also saying its very interesting reading all the input here, and very fascinating to ponder the 'what-where's' - keool !
    Any who - of note: this screen-snip from 10:40 am 2km VIS Himawari and subsequent images upto a couple hrs prior, shows the cloud concentrations & clearer areas - cloud coverage has definitely been more consistent near the border & of interest is the area circled in RED has been much more cloud free over the last couple/few hours which one could assume would have a significant influence for those areas ? interesting to watch all-the-same.
    Also the opening off the coast "Blue Arrow' suggesting good sun hitting the water there & with the NNE surface flow, could suggest more evaporation, inturn feeding any convection - temporarily anyway, might be a totally different scene in another hour or two, but none the less,
    Just my 'bob's worth'
    HavagoodN
     
  32. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Couldn't see the increased moisture on Windy but that might be a resolution issue. Or maybe my eyes. I would speculate that increased moisture, especially in upper boundary may be convergence?
     
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  33. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    I think Blue arrow is interaction with the coastal sea breeze. Mid level cloud moving from west evaporating as it crosses the coast and enters the region of sinking air due to sea breeze circulation.
     
  34. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    The 1st image above is a point I selected behind the Sunshine Coast for 4pm where there's that higher CAPE in EC that you mentioned. The 2nd image is a point I selected in a somewhat lower CAPE area between Brisbane and the Gold Coast.
    You can see that in the 1st location, both the moisture in environmental air in the boundary layer as well as at the surface is a lot higher than at the 2nd location. This would cause parcels rising from either the surface or further aloft in the boundary layer to be more buoyant at the 1st location due to the lower height at which they saturate and therefore then cool at the SALR as they rise.
    But the thing is, it's hard to tell whether the better moisture and therefore higher CAPE in the 1st location is a result of showers/storms raining down on that location in the model, or whether it's actually because there's better pre-storm moisture there (or both). If you look at the 4pm (technically the 3hrs leading up to 4pm) precip forecast from EC or even the hourly precip forecast from it, it has an area of showers/storms there by that time so it's conceivable that at least part of that better moisture might be due to activity already raining down on that location but it's impossible to say for sure.
     
  35. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    A bit of rainsniffing earlier given way to the sun beating down again, 32.5C, 42%RH, almost calm, 50% cloud cover.
     
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  36. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Brisbane sounding and I've plotted the latest temp and dew points as of 1pm
     
  37. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    The QLD Bom twitter feed normally post a thunderstorm map when activity is forecasted. No such map as yet. I love there graphics
     
  38. sillybanter

    sillybanter First Runs

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    crazy collapse of this system overnight, great to see the rain over NSW yesterday but hard to believe it is gone without a drop.
     
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  39. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky Hard Yards

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    We have had 3.5mm overnight and this morning with off and on light showers. Only 0.8mm at the official gauge. As mentioned, only scattered activity mid month and virtually nothing before and after. Just when you think things can’t get any worse, they do. Maybe next year we will finally turn the corner...
     
  40. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Are you guys still in danger of running out of water by years end if things don't change?
     
  41. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Just issued by BoM Qld (not for SEQ, but relevant for granite belt, darling downs, and wide bay burnett). I think it aligns to the strong winds on Tuesday that @Ken Kato mentioned in earlier posts.

    IDQ20035

    Fire Weather Warning
    for the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and Wide Bay and Burnett forecast districts

    Issued at 1:37 pm EST on Monday 4 November 2019.

    Weather Situation
    Severe fire dangers are forecast for the Darling Downs and Granite Belt, Central Highlands and Coalfields and Wide Bay and Burnett districts for tomorrow.

    A surface trough is moving slowly eastwards across southern Queensland. Dry and fresh west to southwesterly winds behind the trough will bring elevated fire dangers to southeastern inland areas. Conditions should ease after sunset as temperatures decrease and winds moderate.

    For Tuesday 5 November:
    Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast districts:
    Central Highlands and Coalfields, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and Wide Bay and Burnett
     
  42. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky Hard Yards

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    Yes Gleno, last I heard Stanthorpe will run out next month, and Warwick sometime mid next year.
     
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  43. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Make the most of anything that manages to occur today (and tomorrow near, and south of the border) guys... after this, rainfall prospects flatline for coastal SE QLD for another 8 to 9 days, if not beyond.
    The EC ensemble currently suggests we may have to wait til about mid November or even later before we get any chance of worthwhile rainfall again.
     
  44. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Mt Stapy radar starting to liven up with a few cells of moderate intensity.
     
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  45. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks as though dewpoints are falling across the Downs too which isn't ideal. I can't believe I fell for that crap.

    And that Brisbane sounding shows two areas of hindrance for storm development this afternoon. The first one is the initial 850mb cap which is always more likely to be overcome inland of the coast due to the stupid seabreeze. IMO, this has more or less been able to meet the required temp/dp away from the coast, but even if you plug in some magic numbers for the sounding you'll still see very minimal cape/instability available anyway.

    And that leads into the second obstacle which is higher up in the atmosphere, and that's the warm air inversion @ 650mb which needs something like 33C+ with a DP of about 17C to be overcome. You can see some areas over the Downs are warmer than others and nearly meet this temp requirement but with that heat has come drier air too (Gatton 33/13 for example) which more or less closes the door again on that second obstacle being broken. There is some weak speckled crap forming just inland of the coast but I'm guessing it's that second inversion which is preventing those cells from growing taller.

    So yeah. Today was always going to be one of those days with more negatives than positives and it's turning out the negatives are far outweighing the positives right now. I will say though I (stupidly) overestimated low-level moisture through the Downs when it should have been blatantly obvious that there'd be some dry air mixed in there somewhere given they have westerlies with very little turning anywhere from top to bottom of the atmosphere.
     
    #45 MegaMatch, Nov 4, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2019
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  46. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    This over the back fence, View West

     
  47. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    I think Wide Bay is in with a chance though still. Line seems to be forming up from Nambour out through towards Emerald and beyond. Touch and go for my place, but looks most likely that I will be watching the back end of this line just to the north as it starts to get going.
     
  48. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeah I'm not ruling us out yet by any means, but I think southern parts of SEQ look far less likely now.
     
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  49. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus Hard Yards

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    I love that PlumbBob, having the radar image for context. Good snap!
     
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  50. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    The inversion at 650hp that Mega mentioned - looks like it might be being broken out near Roma to Emerald, in isolated places, but little sign of it being broken closer to the coast. As revealed by enhanced IR showing cooler cloud tops towards Emerald.



    The line I mentioned closer to the coast on radar isn't really building any further.