SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms 17 Oct 2019

Discussion in 'Eastern & Marine' started by Flowin, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    As @Seabreezes said in the day to day post it's no secret that there is a decent chance of storms on Thursday for the majority of SEQLD/NENSW, so let's go with an event thread.
    There may not be much rain in it, but the potential for a good lightning show looks good as a minimum.
    Below is the EC forecast K-Index for 3pm Thursday NSW time. K Index is described as a measure of how favorable the atmosphere is for thunderstorm development.
     
  2. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    And there is some decent moisture as well in the atmosphere, though I have not yet looked at levels or soundings.

     
  3. Bone Dry

    Bone Dry Hard Yards

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    Thanks Flowin.

    I would like to point out something that is balltearingly irritating.

    Below left we have the lightning as shown in Flowins OP. Below right we have the Fraser/Sunshine Coast with the A1 Bruce Highway clearly highlighted, the constant problem should be clear.

    What is it with that? I mean like....what the........flip.

     
  4. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Im in Coffs.

    Kit has been ready for the last couple of weeks but nothing.

    Today looks promising.

    Like some new footage.

    Thanks Flowin for that source. Always appreciate finding a new source

    NSW and QLD maps

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #4 Taipan, Oct 16, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2019
  5. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Good stuff Flowin.
    Hmm, I have doubts for the immediate Gold Coast. It appears, if I have the understanding of the Skew 'T' that Capping is quite strong here locally, and my gut feeling says that if anything get going, it'll be out further west on the Downs. Hopefully may see some action around Warwick way that would be inline for the GC considering the easterly steering wind in the mids, but that said, gut feeling is a good chance it will collapse and even evaporate before reaching the dreaded Springbrook Tambo ranges.
    Certainly looks be more productive to the far NthWst Brisbane outskirts, Nth Downs and right up into the Wide Bay areas ?

    There are other dynamics which I know Not much about is, guessing the stormage will be high based again, which in turn would probably give good reason to consider that higher based stormage would not be effect by the Capping, maybe they are totally above the capping layer ?
    Anyway - looking on with interest !
     
  6. Chilled

    Chilled Hard Yards

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    Yea agreed that storms will start just west of the ranges and being steered closer to the coast, havnt had a good look at the steering but first glance seemed WNW'ly which probably isn't too bad for us but can't be sure for the GC but not ruling it out. Precip signal looked abit better for west of Bris and northwards but I'm hopeful it will atleast be some action down to NE NSW aswell.
     
  7. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Cap is strong near the coast but you can never write off stronger storms reaching the coast with shear as strong as it is tomorrow. If shear was rubbish then I'd be a lot more pessimistic about your chances.

    Nah, storms that initiate out west won't be solely high-based this time round since there is adequate moisture in the low-levels for once and a breakable cap away from the coast, so provided temps get as warm as they're expected to then there should be no issues for some surface-based convection to get going over the ranges. The 64k question as usual though is whether those storms spread out into a more high-based mess closer to the coast or not, but like I said, given the shear tomorrow it's kinda hard to say.
     
  8. sharkbait

    sharkbait One of Us

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    Speaking of 64k(m) - No Mt Stapylton radar for this period! Marburg detail lacking for me being just south of Miami.
     
  9. Chilled

    Chilled Hard Yards

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    I feel that Mt Stapylton out adds to the excitement.. can't believe it's out again lol
     
  10. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    I think many things look favourable on Thursday including the shear conducive for severe storms and the strong steering winds aloft although not everything's ideal.
    For example, I'd rather the midlevels be colder (but if surface heating is intense enough, there should still be enough instability for storms), capping along some parts of the coast, and the NW to W component to the flow through a deep slab of the atmosphere. The southerly change pushing up the NSW coast shouldn't play a major role for SE QLD, given it's not due to reach this region until early Friday morning.

    One of the many favourable things though is the fact that the stronger part of the upper trough will stay south which means there's a lower risk of prolonged extensive cloud cover and rainfall lasting through the whole morning and inhibiting storms.

    While overall rainfall amounts look pretty modest as far as our own region goes (especially due to the speed of any showers and storms), there could be some lucky places which get higher amounts if they get under any of the heavier activity.

    So here's how I think Thursday will play out:

    1️⃣ Overnight tonight/very early Thu morning could see some additional localised activity moving across inland areas near the QLD/NSW border as well as the northern tablelands and some parts of the MNC coast.
    2️⃣ While early morning may see some cloud cover over parts of SE QLD, models suggest much of this may decrease later in the morning.
    3️⃣ Mostly sunny hot weather then dominating with daytime max temps rising to a number of degrees above the October average (but the coastal fringe should stay a lot cooler than inland).
    4️⃣ Strong northerly winds developing along QLD's southern coastal fringe & islands... as well as strong westerlies along the Great Dividing Range from VIC, through NSW (where they could even be locally damaging), and to the southeastern Darling Downs in QLD in the wake of the approaching front.
    5️⃣ During the middle of the day, a band of low-rainfall showers & storms starts firing up over the central and southeastern interior of QLD as well as inland NE NSW. This band then steadily marches eastwards, possibly as a squall line, towards the southern QLD coast.
    The strong shear also means that some locations could also get a severe storm with brief damaging winds or large hail (moreso for any individual storms separate from any squall line).
    NE NSW is also a bit complicated where the further south you go, the earlier the drier W to NW flow breaks through to the coast and therefore, the lower the chance of storms.
    6️⃣ Later in the afternoon or early evening looks to be the make or break time as far as the coast goes.

    Inland locations look an almost certainty and the coast also looks a reasonable chance - but the latter zone looks like one of those setups where there's a fine line between the strong steering winds aloft dragging the activity to the entire SE QLD coast (and even intensifying/growing there after eroding any capping and ingesting the higher surface dewpoint air in the northerly flow as well as interacting with a bit of a seabreeze front).... or weakening in the capped environment. Either scenario looks possible (I'd probably favour the activity reaching the coast but I'm not 100% certain yet). Above is the Bureau's thunderstorm map via twitter.
     
  11. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very good storm system near Coffs. Pretty sure some great pics in the camera.

    Chasing so busy
     
  12. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Access C is going for development early afternoon in the darling downs region reaching the coast by 5pm.Soundings have a decent cap in place tomorrow which is a concern with a increasing cap as you head north of the sunny coast if im reading the soundings right
     
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  13. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Rather more promising by sounds, thnx.
    Yes Westerly steering winds as always, heading east tho ;-)
    Ok, lower based action, MM, sounds like they could very well stir things up a bit betterra :emoji_cocktail:
    Also looked at the cloud cover 'agree' noticed it should be mostly clear starting mid-morn'ish. and with Nerang (8-10ks from coast) forecast to hit 28C sounds accommodating.
    Ahh, just checked 'Windy' and now have more amperage action closer to home 3pm.
    Thanx for your insights all, & KK, mentioned the Squall line words, might drive west a bit and let them chase, :out:
     
  14. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Haha while we can complain Mt Stapylton offline and Marburg not as good, spare a thought for those that have to rely on Grafton or Gladstone radars :(
    Speaking of Grafton radar pic below from Grafton tonight.:)
     
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  15. Seabreezes

    Seabreezes One of Us

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    Tonight, we had a spectacular lightning-active storm bring heavy rain and very strong winds here. On average, there was lightning occurring every 1-2 seconds. 19mm of rain fell in 20 minutes (likely under-reading a bit due to the winds in the first-half of the storm). The winds were very strong and squally during the first-half of the storm, peaking at approx 70-80km/h.
    The storm had a lovely time feeding off those 19-20°C dewpoints on the coast :emoji_fork_knife_plate:

    Some lightning pics of the storm as it approached, taken by my mobile phone (which doesn't give great quality for night-time photos unfortunately):
    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  16. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Couple of pics from tonight's storms. Strange storm.

    Took the first pic from Beacon Hill. CH. Rest from Woolgoolga. Storm seemed to stall for a while over Coffs.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Great pics Taipan and Seabreeze
     
  18. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather Hard Yards

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    Awesome photos guys! Big big storm around our region last night - way more than I was expecting. Some good rain as well - average of 10mm or so across the local valleys. Lot less to our west but still lightning that way - could see more fires pop up there today. Here's the strikes from across the Bellinger / Coffs area:

     
  19. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Bit of cloud about this morning. @Ken Kato mentioned that there may be clouds this morning in post #10 above, so no surprises.
     
  20. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah, EC and ACCESS-R still currently suggest the overall amount will decrease later this morning so I hope that holds.

    If I had to bet money on it, I’d still suggest the showers and storms will make it to at least some parts of the SE QLD coast, if not the whole coast (due to the strong steering winds aloft) but I could be wrong!
     
  21. Michael Hauber

    Michael Hauber One of Us

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    Surprised that forecast for SS Coast is only 0-2mm. Looks like a reasonable but not spectacular day for storms, and maybe 0-5 or maybe even a bit more would be more reasonable - at least some chances of missing out, but if we get something I'd expect more than 2mm. Significant destabilisation forecast over Darling downs from Mid Morning, so a band may fire up before lunch out west, and then a question of whether it makes it all the way to the coast. Models seem to suggest the atmosphere stabilises quickly near sunset so hopefully a band marches through earlier rather than later. GFS has good CAPE near the coast late afternoon, but EC restricts good CAPE to west of the ranges.
     
  22. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Bello Weather

    Bell where did that graphic come from. Never seen that one before.:):thumbs:
     
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  23. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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  24. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm still surprised by the Bureau's very conservative forecast for Fri/Sat up here as well - in fact, they've even gone with outright 'Sunny' for the WBB as a whole tomorrow when some (not all) models suggest the possibility of storms redeveloping near the SE change through northern parts of this region. For Saturday, only 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm, yet everything I've looked at suggests pretty good agreement for showers and storms to redevelop over a large swab of the region during the morning.
     
  25. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Above is a chance of any (measurable) rainfall map for between 10am and 10pm today generated by the percentages of all the members of the US Navy ensemble and past 6 runs of GFS that are forecasting precip.
    You can see the general NW-SE oriented band of higher probabilities running down across the interior towards the southeast.
    Even though a number of the storms may be dry storms, I still find probability of precip a good proxy for flagging areas for potential showers/storms, and some lucky places may get some decent falls if they can get directly under a cell. Of course, there may be some locations which hardly get anything even in the higher probability areas but that's the nature of convective type rainfall.
     
  26. Bello Weather

    Bello Weather Hard Yards

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    @Taipan Ken beat to me it - great site @ https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/ - use it heaps....part of the local RFS and good to know where to look in my valley to see if anything started. Here's the wider shot across NE NSW last night, giving some idea of just how widespread the activity was:

     
  27. DDstorm

    DDstorm Early Days

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    Stappy back online
     
  28. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Brisbane sounding out and the cap is way too strong for my liking . What figures we need to break the cap ?
     
  29. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    One thing to remember about the observed morning soundings is that while they’re useful for the next few hours, they often lose a lot of that usefulness beyond then because atmospheric profiles can quickly change, especially later in the afternoon when profiles can moisten up, caps can weaken or be eroded by approaching storms, etc.

    This is why adaptive soundings are often performed at non-routine times (e.g. mid afternoon) just ahead of potentially severe storms or other significant weather to give a more up to date picture of the pre-storm environment.

    Also, on hot sunny days like today, a decent slab of the lower atmosphere becomes well-mixed so parcels rise from that mixed layer rather than only from the surface (and its temps and dewpoints).
     
  30. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus Hard Yards

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    Are these non-routine soundings released to the public as with the regular ones?
     
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  31. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    Bang :thumbs:, lightning strike #1 around 11:10am.
    Now we can start counting the thousands to millions? that may occur over the next few hours.
    No only joking, I would not attempt to count them.
     
  32. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Cheers ken , so there will be another balloon released today ??
     
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  33. Lani

    Lani Hard Yards

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    Nice line out near Roma. I suspect they'll be fast moving with this unrelenting wind!
     
  34. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Bit of building happening to the SW.
    NICE!
     
  35. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    It has been warming a fair bit today and has reached 32 C and rose quite steadily. Dew point have been stable at 15 C. Light winds and almost moderate from N to NE have become E to SE since later in the morning.
     
  36. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    [​IMG]
    From memory, I think they might show up in the usual aerological diagrams section on the public aviation weather page on the Bureau's website but I'm not 100% sure.

    Internally, the sounding can be viewed in realtime as the balloon's still going up and it's also at much higher resolution (I can't remember off the top of my head if the displayed data in this version has a temporal resolution of every 1 or 3 seconds but it's something like that anyway) - see an old example above from Brisbane Airport. The level of detail in those ones are similar to the observed soundings displayed on the US Storm Prediction Centre's page.

    The ones on the public page are the end result of manual editing/quality control by the observer responsible for launching the balloon so the temp and dewpoint lines stay within defined tolerances.
     
  37. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us

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    STW now issued for people in Darling Downs and Granite Belt and parts of Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West, Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, Maranoa and Warrego and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts - fairly general though mainly for winds and possible hail.

    Modest pic below of activity "gently building" in SEQ. Pic from Ipswich (Denmark Hill) towards south west at around 1300 AEST.
     
  38. Kazza47

    Kazza47 Hard Yards

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    27863 So pardon my absolute ignorant terms here ( for those who haven't had the pleasure of reading my thoughts before); but looking out on the horizon from here I see the classic 'glassy hazy cloud coverage just in sight' that frequently comes before heavy storm activity hits us in Kingaroy. (Pfftt who needs radars when you have eyes & history)
    We have the ingredients of moisture from the previous rain still around, some pretty gusty winds to help movement & electrifying the atmosphere and plenty of heat.
    All things considered; this afternoon will be interesting - I can't see us NOT getting anything. And it'll come up on us fast.
    EDIT: Just saw your pic Flowin; the cloud I refer to is the lower part of that cloud mass; only much thicker/concentrated but no fluffy heads yet. I don't bother with technical terms lol
     
  39. Kazza47

    Kazza47 Hard Yards

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    Yeah, my uneducated guess is that line will come through fast and a second will form in its wake which may be worse. Maybe lol.
     
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  40. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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  41. piolet

    piolet Better make it three Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. Locke

    Locke Early Days

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    That is one hell of a squall line forming on the Stapy 512k radar. Must be close to 1,200 km long.
     
  43. Lani

    Lani Hard Yards

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    I hope a 2nd line forms Kazz, this first squall line has split nicely into two and is going to go completely around us if it doesn't reform.
     
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  44. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky Hard Yards

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    Very excited about this squall line approaching the Inglewood area now. Looks quite active for being so far west. Usually it starts getting a bit of colour to it just west of us. Plenty of heat to work with as not a cloud all day. Just over the past hour and a half we have been seeing some towering cum try to get going. Now we wait...
     
  45. PlumbBob

    PlumbBob Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes, Great pics Taipan and Seabreeze. Lucky you's ;-)
    --------
    Looks like the Nth Downs 'as I mentioned earlier' are having a great start. Also at this stage Nsw Eastern parts of Tableslands having a good head start,,, just squizzed the Li's on Bsch, and they significantly lower during the afternoon compared to Nth Downs and WBB.
    That said, I would be more incline to Not take these spotted areas whether it be Li's, Storm potential etc to literally, especially for just in a few hrs time, mainly considering the atmospheric changes that do and will occur as the day unfolds ...
    So, bottom line - Keeping eye on sky
     
  46. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus Hard Yards

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    Thanks Ken, I'll keep an eye on the aeronatical page.

    Regarding Kingaroy, looks like you are in for a chance of something meaty this afternoon going by BSCH Stormcast.
     
  47. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  48. Lani

    Lani Hard Yards

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    The hole is starting to fill in again on the radar, I'm quite happy for the lightning to split around us LOL! Very overcast here and windy. See what it brings.
     
  49. WarwickEye2Sky

    WarwickEye2Sky Hard Yards

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    Very nice red cells to our west. Looking good!
     
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  50. Nic Bri

    Nic Bri Hard Yards

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    Well this just popped up real quick...