Storm SEQLD/NENSW Upper trough - Scattered Thunderstorms & Rain Areas - 11-12 Oct 2019

Seabreezes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
418
3,549
263
South West Rocks, NSW
Here's a region-specific event thread to use for the amplifying upper trough which is currently helping to bring scattered thunderstorms and areas of rain to SEQLD/NENSW.

Don't be shy about starting event threads, anyone is able to do it.:thumbs:

(For future readers after the event, discussion for the morning/afternoon hours of the 11th largely occurred in the day-to-day thread: Link to earlier obs)
 

Seabreezes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
418
3,549
263
South West Rocks, NSW
1.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a shower hugging the coastal fringe yesterday evening. Some thunder was heard from a storm sitting just barely off the coast of Nambucca Heads.

Light thundery rain has brought 3.0mm since 9am. EC is enthusiastic about rain prospects tomorrow with moderate to possibly heavy falls here. GFS and ACCESS-R are being somewhat more conservative though.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
1,980
12,634
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
I am in NZ and missing the action but hope to see some moist stuff when I return home tomorrow morning.
Anyway for a different perspective here is a current sat water vapour image.
upload_2019-10-12_0-19-31.png
 

4107

One of Us
Jul 6, 2019
264
2,015
263
Salisbury / Brisbane Southside
Posted this first bit earlier in day to day, but will copy to here now for ease of referring back to later....

2.3mm for Salisbury from the first line so far to drop any rain here this afternoon....daughter told me they cancelled netball at their primary school campus earlier today about 1klm up the road due to some hail falling there, yet we didn't get any rain here at all....so hit and miss..

2nd lot of rain falling here currently, hopefully get much more then first round delivered here...hearing some thunder also
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,898
10,213
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
A cool day and the temperature was rose and fell many times during the day with 2 large falls in the temperature with a thunderstorm at midday and another in mid afternoon. Near average dew point was moderately low before the 2 thunderstorms before slowly rising since the afternoon. Variable and near average relative humidity rising with the thunderstorms. SSE to ENE winds and variable winds since mid afternoon.

Last 24 hours:

temp 2019-10-11.PNG
hum 2019-10-11.PNG
rain 2019-10-11.PNG
wind speed 2019-10-11.PNG
wind dir 2019-10-11.PNG
 
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Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,898
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Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Ferny Grove Weather
Date: 12 Oct 2019
Time: 7:50 AM

Min Temp since 9am yesterday: 12.6 C
Max Temp since 9am yesterday: 23.1 C
Min Ground Temp: 12 C
Rain since 9am yesterday: 24.4 mm

Temperature: 12.7 C
Relative Humidity: 88 %
Dew Point: 10.7 C
MSL Pressure: 1014.7 hPa
Wind Speed: 9 kph - light breeze
Wind Direction: SW

Present Weather: Continuous, slight rain
Visibility: 10km to 19km - Good Visibility
Cloud Cover: 8/8
Ground State: Ground wet
Thunder yesterday: Yes

Notes of yesterday weather - 11/10/19: Midday mild brief thunderstorm and a mild mid-afternoon thunderstorm. Mid-evening mild thunderstorm with brief heavy falls and thundery showers in late evening with heavy falls. A cool morning. Very variable temperature later in the morning and afternoon and the largest temperature falls with the daytime thunderstorms. A small rise in temperature in the early evening. Dew point was near average early in the day and was briefly moderately low. During the day the dew point was near average falling to moderately low just before the daytime thunderstorms before rising back to near average. From the mid-afternoon the dew point rose while remaining near average. Relative humidity was moderately low early and near average during the day and in the evening and was quite variable during the day.Light and variable winds early in the day, S to SSW winds becoming S to SE in the morning, ENE to SE form mid morning, SSE to ESE from midday and ESE to E in the afternoon. Variable winds from mid afternoon, N in late afternoon and early evening with some SW winds later in the evening before thundery showers.

Today: Light showers and rain with heavy falls briefly at 7am. Sluggish and near average temperature and dew point today so far before falling from sunrise. High and stable relative humidity. Mostly light WSW to SSW winds.
 

Retired Weather Man

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
1,208
7,864
363
Wynnum North - Brisbane - Queensland
Wynnum North 24 hour rain to 0900 was 53.6mm. The Manly Alert only 3 km away got 71mm, the highest in the Brisbane area. Interesting temps at the moment. Min temp here to 0900 was 12.6C. Since then it has dropped further to 12.1C by 0930 and could very well be tomorrow's min temp to 0900, unless cloud clears overnight and wind drops to let it drop further.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,898
10,213
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Temperature fell further this morning with the minimum temperature for today at 9am ending up at being 11.8 C at 8:41 am. The temperature then rose to 12.1 C and have continued to rise and is now is stable at 13.5 C. 12.1 C may be the minimum temperature tomorrow if it the temperature is equal to or greater than 12.1 C until 9 am tomorrow. Minimum grass temperature also fell further since earlier with the final minimum of 11.5 C.

Light showers and rain at times continued easing at 9am and returned an hour ago. The 9am total ended up being 26.7 mm (manual gauge) and another 0.8 mm on the automatic gauge since 9am.

Dew point have remained near average and have been stable after it stopped falling at 8:30 am. Relative humidity have remained high. Light winds have been mostly W to SW winds and a little gusty.
 

PlumbBob

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
390
3,546
263
Molendinar
Soo good seeing everyone getting at least a Splash 'last 24h' within the 128k Stappy. At least 5mm except spot below Kyogle.
Some noteworthy rough estimates of the area:
Approx 85-90% with 10'ish mm.
Approx 50% with 25'ish mm
Approx 25% with 40'ish mm
and maybe 5% above 50mm

That Said, I'm not sure what we received, my weather station has problems 'old' and have always assume the rain guage to have vast discrepancies, years ago I have had 4 other types of plastic languages out at once to compare with the station, but these also have discrepancies, eg, same rain, one showing 10mm others ranging upto 30mm = poor design, mis-matched calibration markings.
So Yesty I put out a stock household bucket, it now has water to a depth of 50mm which I believe is actually 50mm of precip, well, maybe a smidge more due to the 'very slight taper of the bucket.
But the 128k stappy is showing only 25'ishmm for here ?

Side Note: Plastic gauges have funneled shape design to allow for more calibration marks down the narrow end for more accurate readings between say 0 & 10mm but these marks are not calibrated correctly to how much angle of each funnel design which why a used 4 different types - and in turn I believe proves this point..
Makes me wonder about inconsistencies with different brands of battery powered weather stations; are they more accurate with the more expensive ones 'or' are they Not. Do the various companies who design/make these test between each other and more importantly collaborate for an agreement to which design is actually reading correctly ?

Apologies for digressing..
A Chilly 14* deg atm 1pm
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,238
28,924
363
ACCESS-C and some other models have been suggesting the possibility of some secondary localised shower/thunderstorm activity from the higher inland terrain near the border being advected towards some (but not all) sections of the coast late this afternoon or early evening.

If that happened, some hail for locations under that activity would be quite possible given the persisting cold air aloft.
 

Ken Kato

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 13, 2019
3,238
28,924
363
Even if it did happen, it’d probably be hit and miss though and nothing like the widespread nature of the activity this morning and late yesterday where virtually everyone got something.
This afternoon/evening would be more a ”radar-watching to see if any come near you” situations I think.
 

LightningGus

Hard Yards
Jul 6, 2019
14
105
78
Caloundra, QLD
Just had a quickfire 5mm and a splattering of pea size hail from what was just a dark blue shower on radar. So yeah definitely some hail around for sure. 8mm here last night which seemed to be at the lower end of totals for this event, kinda disappointing. Ah well was never going to be a drought breaker anyway, at least it will settle the dust for a few days.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,898
10,213
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
At around midday the clouds cleared and the temperature rose from 14.1 C at midday and is now at 21 C. Dew point continued to rise until 12:30pm, and have since fallen and is now moderately low at 8 C. Relative humidity naturally fell with the clearing cloud and is near average. Light S to SW winds before the cloud cleared, then WSW to SSW since midday. Most clear sky with some cumulus clouds to the west.

It was nice to get the rain, though it would be good to see if we can manage to get some activity this afternoon. Rainfall since 9 am: 1.5 mm with a total of 28.4 mm since 9am yesterday (automatic gauge: 25 mm).
 

MegaMatch

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
2,684
12,070
363
where
This really was one of those 'splattering of rain areas with localised heavy falls' types of event. While we had a very modest 20mm in the last 24 hours, I reckon places to our nearby east, north and west had maybe double or in some cases triple that, given some of the small, slow-moving cells that popped up yesterday and overnight. Last night these pulsey little cells sat to our north (places like Howard and Toogoom would have easily cracked 50mm imo) while today's cells slipped east, west and north of us.

So it turned out pretty much as expected...moderate falls around the place with isolated heavier falls lumped in.
 
Last edited:

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,898
10,213
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
Soo good seeing everyone getting at least a Splash 'last 24h' within the 128k Stappy. At least 5mm except spot below Kyogle.
Some noteworthy rough estimates of the area:
Approx 85-90% with 10'ish mm.
Approx 50% with 25'ish mm
Approx 25% with 40'ish mm
and maybe 5% above 50mm

That Said, I'm not sure what we received, my weather station has problems 'old' and have always assume the rain guage to have vast discrepancies, years ago I have had 4 other types of plastic languages out at once to compare with the station, but these also have discrepancies, eg, same rain, one showing 10mm others ranging upto 30mm = poor design, mis-matched calibration markings.
So Yesty I put out a stock household bucket, it now has water to a depth of 50mm which I believe is actually 50mm of precip, well, maybe a smidge more due to the 'very slight taper of the bucket.
But the 128k stappy is showing only 25'ishmm for here ?

Side Note: Plastic gauges have funneled shape design to allow for more calibration marks down the narrow end for more accurate readings between say 0 & 10mm but these marks are not calibrated correctly to how much angle of each funnel design which why a used 4 different types - and in turn I believe proves this point..
Makes me wonder about inconsistencies with different brands of battery powered weather stations; are they more accurate with the more expensive ones 'or' are they Not. Do the various companies who design/make these test between each other and more importantly collaborate for an agreement to which design is actually reading correctly ?

Apologies for digressing..
A Chilly 14* deg atm 1pm

Regardless of the rain gauge used rainfall depends on the exposure of the rain gauge, that it's likely to under-read if sheltered by trees, buildings and the like. The amount of ainfall captured by rain gauges also reduce with height due to effect of the wind. Many of the plastic rain gauges are not too good especially the ones without a funnel, and the funnel should be a decent size.

The traditional Nylex is generally quite good for resolution and capacity and has a round funnel. Round funnels should perform better in windy conditions. Many of the electronic automatic tipping bucket or spoon gauges use rectangular shaped funnels which are often quite small. These electronic gauges have to be sited level or will over or under read.

I use to use a small cheap tipping bucket rain gauge that had a square bucket but only had a resolution of 0.5 mm. It under-read by about 10% to 15% compared to the traditional Nylex gauge and greater in heavy rain or windy conditions which I had mounted higher than the Nylex. I using a Davis presently with much larger funnel and is more accurate though it does under read to some degree depending on the intensity and type of rain. For that reason manual gauges are generally in my experience more accurate that the electronic gauges. Electronic gauges however are good for plotting over time and for rain intensity.
 

4107

One of Us
Jul 6, 2019
264
2,015
263
Salisbury / Brisbane Southside
Event total has ended at 11.8mm for here at Salisbury...speaking of 11...went for a drive out onto Lions Rd out at Border Ranges today to look at something, around midday I wound the car window down as I drove along and though geez it’s cold outside there, hit the cars outside temperature gauge to see it saying it was 11 degrees.
 

PlumbBob

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
390
3,546
263
Molendinar
Regardless of the rain gauge used rainfall depends on the exposure of the rain gauge, that it's likely to under-read if sheltered by trees, buildings and the like. The amount of ainfall captured by rain gauges also reduce with height due to effect of the wind. Many of the plastic rain gauges are not too good especially the ones without a funnel, and the funnel should be a decent size.

The traditional Nylex is generally quite good for resolution and capacity and has a round funnel. Round funnels should perform better in windy conditions. Many of the electronic automatic tipping bucket or spoon gauges use rectangular shaped funnels which are often quite small. These electronic gauges have to be sited level or will over or under read.

I use to use a small cheap tipping bucket rain gauge that had a square bucket but only had a resolution of 0.5 mm. It under-read by about 10% to 15% compared to the traditional Nylex gauge and greater in heavy rain or windy conditions which I had mounted higher than the Nylex. I using a Davis presently with much larger funnel and is more accurate though it does under read to some degree depending on the intensity and type of rain. For that reason manual gauges are generally in my experience more accurate that the electronic gauges. Electronic gauges however are good for plotting over time and for rain intensity.
Cheers for your input there, FD,,, appreciated, learnt a couple 'o things & taken onboard thnx...
Good to see you got some 25-30mm precip.
-----------------
Some more weather & instability abouts this coming Thursday ?
05r.JPG
05rLi.JPG
05stp.JPG
 

Sbooker

One of Us
Sep 28, 2015
2,627
3,973
363
Mango Hill. 24mm at 2pm today.
The landscape was absolutely glowing in sunshine at 4.30pm when I walked my dog. Beautiful multiple shades of green - grass and flora loving the rejuvenation. It feels like we’re through dry season for another year.
 

Seabreezes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
418
3,549
263
South West Rocks, NSW
30.2mm since 9am this morning here. It's mostly been periods of light to steady rain. Though there was a brief heavy shower at 10:30am, and then a period of heavy rain around 8:20pm.
There was 4.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am.

Tamworth had a good drop of rain from a storm earlier this evening with 27mm falling at the airport. I've read several reports of 40-50mm from the suburb of Westdale. There was also small hail with the storm.
 

Falling_Droplet

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 7, 2019
1,898
10,213
363
Ferny Grove, QLD
fernygroveweather.com
A cool day with maximum temperature of 23.1 C. Quite cool tonight and currently down to 11.8 C. At 1:30 pm the dew point fell and became stable and a little variable and is back to moderately low. Even after the cloud cleared the apparent temperature was several degrees below the air temperature until the late afternoon. Near average relative humidity for the rest of today following the rain. Light S to WSW winds this afternoon and tonight and have now become calm.

Last 24 hours:
rain 2019-10-12.PNG

temp 2019-10-12.PNG

hum 2019-10-12.PNG
wind dir 2019-10-12.PNG
wind speed 2019-10-12.PNG
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
1,980
12,634
363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
:nerd:
For a record of this event below are radar rain accumulations 24 hrs to 9am for last three days.
Pic 1, 2, 3, Brisbane Mt stapylton, for 11, 12, 13 October.
Pic 3, 4, 5, Gympie Mt Kanigan, for same dates.

It would be nice to have similar records for Gladstone to the North, and Grafton to the south but unfortunately these radars don’t provide accumulations.

Note Radar accumulations aim to match rain gauges but can still have errors in the “estimates” of rain totals in some locations. Despite these errors I still think the radar accumulations give a better feel for the pattern of the event over the region than simple rain gauge maps.

7160626B-C465-46D9-AC3D-908F10849351.jpeg
C28BDE5C-D84B-4798-8AF6-425C04419EB9.jpeg
73781E21-6C09-40AC-9232-307348CAFDD9.jpeg
9037789B-2032-4E28-A400-9D2859C20856.jpeg
C857EDA9-C8D4-4751-B36A-165ED1CEB107.jpeg
94AD60AC-36CE-49E5-A527-DF57CD4FB480.jpeg
 

Seabreezes

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 4, 2019
418
3,549
263
South West Rocks, NSW
44.6mm in the 24hrs to 9am. Significantly wetter here than other coastal areas to our north and south. The rain was very coastal, and being about 5kms or so more eastward than other parts of the coast and exposed to the train of rain/showers for a longer period of time made all the difference. The last of the showers cleared off by mid-morning.
An event total of 51.2mm here.
 
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