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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Dec 3, 2016.
Early days atm but will likely line up with the swio mjo signal R/W.
Ensembles say yes. EC, GFS & The Canuck say no. Although GFS's interest is growing run to run. Needs more time, as you say.
it can lead up the "autumn- let the ground cooling begin" thread,
Very early this year though
As is with all 'ground cooling' comments, he's kinda kidding. Autumn thread? yes, 'ground cooling'? Haha
Autumn weather is welcome anytime in autumn as would be case in point with the models for this one IMO
warnings may or may not be issued with such comment
No ground cooling in Lygon st breezy but warm Bears say about low 20's ATM.
Just peaked @ canuck ens and yeah pow its looking ok 2/4 march.
But later the ens runs, are looking just beastly with frosty anoms.
GFS says the 2-4 March system will bring 1300m snow showers to Tasmania. Just not north enough for Mainland snow showers ATM. Same with EC with 1500m snow showers to Central and Southern Tasmania.
Those GEPS Control runs look really juicy jwx
Waxing and waning through runs this 2/4MAR system IMO. Definite upgrade on the 00Z runs GFS/EC included.
I do like the long range prospect though - EC & The Canadian going all out for something big circa the 10th March.
This little system atm could surprise with some good stormy weather
if it holds its line. Has some nice cumulonimbus @NNW and the lower
half is all deep convention.
Mount Gambier, Portland and Victor Harbour perhaps??
Jane Bunn said earlier it would slip below Victoria.
Satellite pics prove this.
Perhaps Tasmania may have some storms overnight.
Mount Gambier 20kts NW, gusting to 33kts ATM.
Yeh, I think slipping south, sadly.
They're saying this year has been one of the top 3 wet seasons in a century for the Kimberley.
Nice pic of the King George Falls in full flood, a staggering amount of water.
Wet season hasn't stopped since last winter. WA & QLD had one hell of a dry (wet) season last 'winter' so it's largely been mono-seasonal this past 8-10 months, from what I understand.
Aus qtrly climate ahead:
Looking like a troughy set-up through the first week of March for the East Coast... Particularly with the consistent on shore flow.
3rd of March front is all but dead in the water. Solid ridge establishes itself after this weekend. All models agree.
Lost power in Lithgow Tafe just after 2pm, and flash bangs were under 1 second apart. Best thing was, i was in the middle of teaching a weather class!
Better than being in a canyon with the class
Ens are miles apart with the ridge atm. Don't forget the EC is the premier
model @500mb it always out performs all others consistently Lets see
if it holds serve and the others crumble.
Just under 100 ( 96 I think) days till the calendar start of winter.
I am keen to see that play out, the separation is real.
A weather model boxing match EC vs GFS
Appears not much sizzling going on in Vicco.
Temp in north forecast to max in mid thirties.
Dry,slight winds and stuff all rain fall to take us thro to the early days of March.. using Bom predictions for Wangaratta till next Saturday.
Certainly good camping weather for Vic Alps at moment.
And fire dangers sitting at high to very high..
Who wants to bet that a 40deg possibility is slipping away now..
Different story for east coast. Next two weeks look wet, wet and wet.
Yep. Relay for Life walkers got 26mm dumped on them in as many minutes at midnight last night, on top of 26mm in the few hours prior to that.
Where was that with the 26mm. With the Life Walkers?
Hey we can see the outpost to the Nth is about to have rain every day for about a week...max 25 degC.and continuing mins of 20degC. That ought to slow the Sydney Siders down...
Umbrellas ready dudes! Info gathered from perusal of Bom predictions for Sydney...
Looking like a bog standard Autumn here on the NSW South Coast. Heavy rain all week and beyond. Almost feels like normal weather could define the rest of the year to come.
The Gong (south of Sydney)
Heading to Batemans bay next weekend. Looks like golf and fishing off. Maybe a punt and a pint....
Ground hog day for a local Bateman's resident...
Time to pull out the i pad and search for Maccas with WiFi.watching the rain a falling .in the East Coast of NSW.....been out late tonight...had egg &bacon mcmuffin after kittens;temperature is very mild out side in the big M.
EC caving in to the GFS don't often see that.
Possible low pressure system N in the Arafura sea raking darwin.
Track looks similar to the famous one.
Looks like a classic east coast wet weather event right now with that deepening trough feeding in those moist onshore winds.
Big rainfall totals coming up for the mid north NSW coast over the next few days, wouldn't be surprised to see some solid flooding
Anyone feel free to answer. Why have the waters off the east coast stayed so warm above average for so long? Whats the likelihood of it moving anytime soon?
yellow snow - one more reason not to drink sea water ?
A combination of the leftovers from the 2015/16 El-Nino, ocean currents, and possibly the extended heatwave along the NSW coast over summer.
Rule of thumb at this time of year is that low pressure systems over sea suck the heat out of the sea surface, and conversely lingering anti-cyclones let the heat stay there.
Jokes aside. The warm spot off the SE has been a feature of the past 4 years or so, rather than anything recent.
Agreed, Hasn't shifted. Surfing middle of winter in a springy or boardies felt a bit weird last year. Central Coast NSW
I'm curious as to whether the strength of the warm NE current over recent times is a factor in this. Another thing is whether a stronger/faster circumpolar current South of Tasmania is happening. That could draw warm water further South as it acts like a vortex. And then there's the influence of our recent -ve AAO and lack of cyclones due to the upper westerlies in the tropics. Pure speculation of course, and I'd love to hear from oceanographers/climatologists on this....
I agree with the first part of that post. The only low pressure systems that
suck ocean heat are warm core tropical cyclones re by latent heat transfer.
Upper level mid latitude low pressure systems are cold core these do not
suck heat from the ocean by-way of up welling. The low i believe you are
pointing @ is the one off the east coast 500mb UL low.
The warm waters off Sydney is current fuelled and its obviously closer
to the shore than usual this year. I suspect it would make for some great
offshore and coastal sports fishing.
MJO rekindling through maritime continent (Phase 4) region around then. Looks stronger than it's last pass, 4 weeks ago. EC a little keen maybe.
@jwx as mentioned last week EC, GFS both pinging the system a little later now on the ~13th. Looks deep and broad if it tracks in as progged. Thoughts?
Its complicated indeed,quite a few things involved.
The East Australian Current
The East Australian Current flows south along the east coast of Australia from near Queensland’s Fraser Island to Tasmania. It is an important feature of the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which has been warming faster than other parts of the ocean.
This is caused by activity in the upper part of the atmosphere over Antarctica, where each spring the onset of daylight brings a set of chemical reactions that deplete ozone in the stratosphere.
This changes the circulation of the atmosphere which in turn alters the wind patterns that drive the ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean, known as the South Pacific Gyre. This strengthening of the South Pacific Gyre also causes a strengthening of the East Australian Current, so that the warm tropical waters from the Coral Sea region are forced further south, warming the Tasman Sea.