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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Jellybeans, Dec 3, 2016.
@Pow not sure about the top-end low atm there has been quite a few chop and changes with the ec runs,and yeah latest is a broad monsonal low ramping up off nw WA and re curving back onshore. I think if its a smaller compact system then i give weight to the earlier runs with the 993mb TC raking Darwin and ramping up in the JBG.
South System appears to be a cutoff low as-per the ec ens. Interesting system coming from the Tasman drifting N with a negative tilt and intensifying as it moves over land. Looks very cold.
I was thinking same back end of the troughs this week.
SST is primed for it.
Top end special , stay tuned as per @jwx.
March 9-11 could be a bit toasty with a nasty looking NWly from W.A before a strong cold front rips through.
Looks a little later than that on GFS and EC (as I mentioned last night). 13/14th for the east coast. Deep low for March, forsure.
Splendid arvo in Melb today.Warm and dry maybe 30deg in Lygon St perfect for iPad and coffee activities :even Wifi most civilised activity.
BOM is on El Niño watch, but the forecast is for stronger trades over the next week or two.
Interesting to see how this one pans out.
CFS is currently strong El Niño. Most models aren't this strong.
From a North Queensland point of view I'd suggest that last year's El Nino event is still here. While the Northern Territory and the top of Western Australia haven't done too badly even with the lack of any significant cyclone activity it's a different story on my side of the country. No weather systems of any significance have appeared at all this season apart from that non event in the GOC last week. Cairns has only received average rainfall so far with very little reaching inland areas. Tinaroo Dam on the Atherton Tablelands has only received enough inflow for authorities to be able to let the water skiers have a bit of fun again. Further south in poor old Townsville they will probably be pumping from the Burdekin Dam again in a couple of weeks time, the inflow for the Ross River dam dam has been that poor. Only a handful of rivers and streams have had flood warnings issued this season and even then they were only minor warnings.
I don't know what happened to the wet seasons of old but they seem to be a very distant memory now.
I've spent time in Cairns over the last two Januaries and concur with you here - I've had maybe 1.5 days in rain in close on 20 days up there across the two years. No thunderstorms or anything exciting. Very unusual. Friends in Townsville say things are pretty dire.
Let's verify the BoM's summer outlook issued in November
^^ Probably the most accurate seasonal forecast from the BOM I have ever seen.
Pretty well confirms my earlier post.