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Discussion in 'Eastern & Marine' started by Jellybeans, Dec 3, 2016.
GFS Parallel is now out on Tropical Tidbits, and has a higher resolution.
It's still GFS though
Saw this interesting explanation just now on a fb feed.
Combo of rye grass pollen , wind and water.
Was a ripper.
Watched that from Mt Eliza
Doesn't cover Australia yet.
Revoltingly warm week coming up for southern states. Sydney has a forecast minimum on Tuesday of 25C. Yuk.
Yeah, that heat trough won't be doing any favors for humidity either.
Quick peek at xmas day.
The Low will be of interest up in the NW.
Long way to go yet tho.
Tracks SW parallel along the WA coast and intensifying .
Cyclone Tracy all over again
950 hPa ........
My Dad was in it , we wheren't told about it but we saw it on the News......
Tomorrow night could be the warmest December night in Sydney for 44 years. Lovely.
Unsurprisingly, gone off the 06Z & 12Z runs.
But BOTH GFS and EC are now progging tropical disturbances on the NW shelf over the next 7-10 days but neither suggest too much risk for the mainlaind.
BOM pointing to a Low Risk scenario by the week's end. BOM hinting at a shift by next week though.
Yes I noticed that last night also.
Nothing like what modelled earlier runs.
Long way out a lot can happen.
12z run for Wednesday.
Looking at charts today, there is still a chance for a White Christmas but relatively low
The mercury has hit 41 in the back yard NSW South Coast .
Going to be all sorts of records broken today , as forecast / anticipated.
First time poster here.
Are any of you guys long term snow forecasters? Is snowatch or snowcast or mountainwatch long term snow forecasters? What about that guy who used to sell his seasonal forecasts to Aussie ski resorts?
Thanks in advance
John Moore is the other fellow, is he any good?
I can't speak for the others, but I consider myself a long term forecaster. But that doesn't really imply much accuracy.
I think you get as good or better advice here than those websites IMO
Gerg is very good too.
Greg is great. His yearly snowfall predictions are the best of the bunch and his analysis of climate trends and the like is incredible. Too bad he left here
Welcome to the black hole !
as per @Claude Cat above.
Further to that a great place to expand your own knowledge if you're keen and want to spend the time.
And the Commercial forecasts you mention above , delete any amphibians and you're on your way. IMO.
Looky here for the latest knowledge bank.
The BOM have upped the ante again. Sydney reached 37.8C today and there's now a forecast minimum of 26C tonight.
Hottest ever December night is 26.3C so there could be a record broken (the hottest ever is 27.6C set in February 2011 but I think we'll dip below that).
Then tomorrow another 38C day is forecast before a strong southerly arrives and demolishes the temperature.
Who needs a record book when we have you! Cheers for the update. SYD station still sitting on 28.8C with a light Easterly puffing away. I think the light easterly may just save that record.
Yeah I think we may dip below unless the wind swings round to the NW. Sydney Airport is currently at 29.8C and Penrith a toasty 32.2C!
Copy , that little puff of E & NE sure saved us.
Local seaside temps on the NSW south coast at Kiama in the Illawarra and all down the Shoalhaven coast have smashed annual minimum overnight temp records by 7 degrees.
It is currently 30C at BOM's Bombo Headland AWS (Kiama). The previous min record was 23C set in Oct 1981. This is way beyond anything seen before. The mean min for Dec is 16C.
Most houses in these parts have no aircon installed. Hopefully this is all over later today - one more night of this and the oldies will be dying by the dozen.
Looks like Sydney had it's second hottest night ever overnight at 27.4C. Just 0.2C off the record. But I'll wait @IAB for verification.
We still have 30 in the yard and in the House.
BOM sying 31 at Ulladulla.
Yes all eyes will be looking South for the change today.
Already 28c in Cronulla
Ventusky image showing localised heat pools .
Relief is in sight
Cool change moved in over Melbourne around midnight.
On further reflection - this is wrong. As the min temp in the current 24 hour period was 21.5C at 10.30pm last night. So the record stands. I'll try and find the detailed hourly data for the record in Oct 1981 and see if it followed a similar weird mid night heatwave. This will be probably the case for all south coast readings. The Sydney temp record is also 'technically" questionable as Sydney is nowadays so heavily influenced by UHI effects and the overall static temps overnight may suggest there was no dip in temps earlier in the evening as we saw elsewhere in so many places before the warm air hit again around 1am. All those aircons in Sydney would have kept the place cooking after sunset.
Very welcomed also
I had a upper level come through my area about 4-5pm, dropped the temp from the mid 30s to the mid 20s, but then it slowly crept back up towards 30C again before the second one came through. Much nicer 15C this morning.
Cold front just passing Gabo now - heading up the coast - relief is on the way ...
Yeh it was still very warm when we went to bed, had the fan on most of the night.
35c here in Penrith at 9:30am! Forecast minimum of 27c didn't eventuate, we ended up with a breif min of 23c after hovering around 24-25 for most of the night.
Observatory Hill ended up with a min of 27c which is a record for December. Previous record was 26.3c way back in 1868!
I think CC/POW already know,for others the current model runs with these high pressure anticyclonic systems in the Tasman, is a text book feature of a developing hadley cell over the region.
Montague Island / Narooma and counting it down ....
Was talking to a mate in Sydney this morning.
He said he got suckered into taking his daughter and a friend to Wet N Wild in Sydney yesterday (which is out west and a few more degrees warmer).
He said he can't walk today as the soles of his feet are red raw (burnt) from having to walk/run on the pavement yesterday from ride to ride.
Like it. I don't think that paper says what a Hadley cell actually is. So for those who don't know... a Hadley cell is warm air rising at the equator, moving south and then dropping to the surface and moving north again. Correct me if I'm wrong jeff.
It does affect the jet stream and trade winds. If anything, it suggests we are moving to warmer conditions. Pic is straight off Wikipedia.
Had a look too .
Not the paper , too much in there ...maybe tonight.
Really interesting .
Low pressures at the Eq due to rising warm air and the higher pressures caused at 30 as the air cools and sinks back down.
Monsoon trough over Indonesia. This is the one that is forecast to come over the Top End in the coming days.
Still a ways to go for us Sydney dwellers. I'm guessing around 6-7pm or so.
Its the hadley cell jelly that drags the monsoon trof you showed on that plot above down into the shem.
Happens every year with the arrival of the monsoon. Do you notice also the wwb across the EQ +cold air moving over china. And the big SE flow in the south china sea.