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Sizzling Summer Soliloquies

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Dec 3, 2012.

  1. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    10.4 mm rain in 8 minutes, not bad!
    Edit, now 25.4 mm in 40 mins
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Need some down here!
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS currently suggesting good falls in Victoria next Sunday. EC has it later, perhaps Tuesday week.
    At least there seems to be a change starting to show up in the models.
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah but the trough that looked like it was pushing in mid this week has gone and nothing worthwhile happening until the weekend. But it is blowing around 15kts of SE this morning at work, which I dont mind, it means troughs are around.

    Once again, it's going to take a week or so to shift from this 'non-weather' or 'non-system' weather we've had for the past couple of months. It's not going to happen overnight and suddenly start raining, but this is a better sign.
     
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually, GFS is saying storms around the VIC/SA border this Thurs/Fri and onwards, with isolated good totals. AXS looking at a more serious trough Tues/Weds next week.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC is going with Monday though Wednesday next week too.

    [​IMG]
     
    #456 Claude Cat, Feb 11, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whole country looks wet from this weekend on for a week. Looks like almost everywhere will get something.
     
  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As you say GFS suggesting possibility of storms from mid week to the weekend.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #458 Claude Cat, Feb 11, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks for the charts. Looks a little random so i'm not sure GFS is 'all in' yet or just having a bit of a punt.
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd be putting it in the category of "chance" of a thunderstorm at this stage.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS getting more serious about afternoon TS action in the SE.
    While both tomorrow & Thursday this week look like fairly strong chances of TS over Victoria, it gets serious for Friday onwards.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #461 Claude Cat, Feb 12, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  12. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    Wow, looks good!
     
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's what I like to see.
     
  14. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest BoM forecast has downgraded any rainfall for Melbourne in the forecast period. Will be interesting to see if they forecasters are over-riding the model guidance.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC has been far less enthusiastic about rainfall. Currently <5mm total for the 10 day period.
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS more on board with this today, but still not huge totals. BOM is saying fine and sunny, no mention of storms, models and wx are saying storms and showers the next 4 days. My weather app says sunny but a 70% chance of rain.

    That sums it up pretty good [​IMG]
     
    #466 Vermillion, Feb 13, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much wind this morning and not a cloud in the sky. Cook baby cook!
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS has backed off a little on storm probabilities for the weekend
    A chance this afternoon, Thursday and Friday look like the days right now.
     
  19. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM say 'thunderstorms in the nearby hills' for Melbourne. But still a low probability of rain in the Metropolitan area. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    For what evening is that, is it for the whole period?
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Didnt happen tonight, too much easterly. Let's try again tomorrow.
     
  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tomorrow and Friday.
     
    #472 Rush, Feb 13, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  23. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    #473 snow777, Feb 14, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh. Bom have chance of a TS today. Has that feel this morning.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Been storming down here since 5am, sometimes very very heavy. On the way to work I drove through a minute of some of the heaviest rain i've ever driven through. Lots of flash flooding around, not only is the Monash stuffed down here but all the feeder roads are stuffed too. Lots of oil etc getting washed out of the road too, so it's slippery as all hell.

    Cant say im disappointing to see rain dumping down though [​IMG] Not sure we'll get to 31 here today, and I can see storms developing all through the day, hell there's a heap of energy in the atmosphere and good conditions for storms.
     
    #475 Vermillion, Feb 14, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    The latest sounding for Melbourne is also showing a little bit of CAPE, I expect this mornings sounding to be every more positive.

    As I type it's thunder, lightning and heavy rain in the SE subs.
     
  27. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just lost power, on backup. Been cracking lightning overhead for a good 15mins straight now.
     
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Bayside has been smashed.
    Nothing in the CBD or inner east though.
     
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon it's gonna happen this arvo, the sat pic has just started to fire back up.
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Radar just went boom. Mildura/Swan Hill all the way down to Geelong/Otways then Eastwards all along the dividing range to Canberra. Wind in Melbourne isnt too bad, I reckon we'll see some good fun out of this today.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Brewing in a line from Meredith to Gisborne.
    I suspect it might miss us. But lets see.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    STW up.

    Will update

    [​IMG]
     
    #482 Claude Cat, Feb 14, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    They are moving very very slowly so I think you might be right and greater Melbourne will largely miss out today, unless another line appears.
     
  34. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounding from last night looks very good, positive above 820hpa and a great amount of CAPE above it. My worry is that it's a little too windy at ground level this morning and the shear isnt off the chart great. By 2pm we should know if it's party time.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I rode my bike to work today. Sure fire way of making sure [​IMG]
     
    #485 Claude Cat, Feb 15, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK wind hasnt picked up, just a nice SE breeze feeding in. Looks better now.
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I suspect we won't see much here in Melbourne. Reckon it's all going to be out in the west of the state.

    Next week (from Tuesday) looks to have plenty of action.
     
  38. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah its been showing up on the charts for a few days now. Looks like initially a bit of a bombing low pulling a trough down with it then becoming stationary for at least a few days.
     
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Firing up around Swan Hill and the dividing range again, moving northwards very slowly. Might not be a show in Melbourne but looks like being decent totals around later tonight.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like it's happening around the vic alps too. Just what they need, more thunderstorms [​IMG]
     
    #490 Claude Cat, Feb 15, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Brewing up in a line Daylesford Macedon Flowerdale and Marysville.

    Looks too far north to affect the 'burbs today.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    On queue:

    [​IMG]
     
    #492 Claude Cat, Feb 15, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  43. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Ive got a feeling NSW is going to pop soon too
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Looks like it for mid coastal NSW.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hai it looks that way.
     
    #495 Vermillion, Feb 15, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  46. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not fair. We've had no rain all year, and it's pouring in Buxton and Marysville - both only 10 mins away, and not a drop of it here [​IMG] Lots of thunder & lightning, no rain!!! [​IMG]
     
    #496 teckel, Feb 15, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like today could be a goer further south. Almost no wind here and plenty of cooking going on. Once again around 2pm we'll know where the action will be at.
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shit is just starting to get real. This will be a big storm day.
     
  49. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    East coast looks very very wet this week, and later on a couple of big lows off the NW of the country too. Please send some rain down to VIC.
     
  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sure does.

    [​IMG]

    Wonder how much we'll get down in Melbourne. Need rain soon.
    EC is suggesting nothing - it's all going to be east of us.
     
    #500 Claude Cat, Feb 18, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013