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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Dec 3, 2012.
10.4 mm rain in 8 minutes, not bad!
Edit, now 25.4 mm in 40 mins
Need some down here!
GFS currently suggesting good falls in Victoria next Sunday. EC has it later, perhaps Tuesday week.
At least there seems to be a change starting to show up in the models.
Yeah but the trough that looked like it was pushing in mid this week has gone and nothing worthwhile happening until the weekend. But it is blowing around 15kts of SE this morning at work, which I dont mind, it means troughs are around.
Once again, it's going to take a week or so to shift from this 'non-weather' or 'non-system' weather we've had for the past couple of months. It's not going to happen overnight and suddenly start raining, but this is a better sign.
Actually, GFS is saying storms around the VIC/SA border this Thurs/Fri and onwards, with isolated good totals. AXS looking at a more serious trough Tues/Weds next week.
EC is going with Monday though Wednesday next week too.
Whole country looks wet from this weekend on for a week. Looks like almost everywhere will get something.
As you say GFS suggesting possibility of storms from mid week to the weekend.
Thanks for the charts. Looks a little random so i'm not sure GFS is 'all in' yet or just having a bit of a punt.
I'd be putting it in the category of "chance" of a thunderstorm at this stage.
GFS getting more serious about afternoon TS action in the SE.
While both tomorrow & Thursday this week look like fairly strong chances of TS over Victoria, it gets serious for Friday onwards.
Wow, looks good!
That's what I like to see.
Latest BoM forecast has downgraded any rainfall for Melbourne in the forecast period. Will be interesting to see if they forecasters are over-riding the model guidance.
EC has been far less enthusiastic about rainfall. Currently <5mm total for the 10 day period.
AXS more on board with this today, but still not huge totals. BOM is saying fine and sunny, no mention of storms, models and wx are saying storms and showers the next 4 days. My weather app says sunny but a 70% chance of rain.
That sums it up pretty good
Not much wind this morning and not a cloud in the sky. Cook baby cook!
GFS has backed off a little on storm probabilities for the weekend
A chance this afternoon, Thursday and Friday look like the days right now.
BoM say 'thunderstorms in the nearby hills' for Melbourne. But still a low probability of rain in the Metropolitan area. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.
For what evening is that, is it for the whole period?
Didnt happen tonight, too much easterly. Let's try again tomorrow.
Tomorrow and Friday.
A few lil' ones moving through now! http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml
Yeh. Bom have chance of a TS today. Has that feel this morning.
Been storming down here since 5am, sometimes very very heavy. On the way to work I drove through a minute of some of the heaviest rain i've ever driven through. Lots of flash flooding around, not only is the Monash stuffed down here but all the feeder roads are stuffed too. Lots of oil etc getting washed out of the road too, so it's slippery as all hell.
Cant say im disappointing to see rain dumping down though Not sure we'll get to 31 here today, and I can see storms developing all through the day, hell there's a heap of energy in the atmosphere and good conditions for storms.
The latest sounding for Melbourne is also showing a little bit of CAPE, I expect this mornings sounding to be every more positive.
As I type it's thunder, lightning and heavy rain in the SE subs.
Just lost power, on backup. Been cracking lightning overhead for a good 15mins straight now.
Bayside has been smashed.
Nothing in the CBD or inner east though.
I reckon it's gonna happen this arvo, the sat pic has just started to fire back up.
Radar just went boom. Mildura/Swan Hill all the way down to Geelong/Otways then Eastwards all along the dividing range to Canberra. Wind in Melbourne isnt too bad, I reckon we'll see some good fun out of this today.
Brewing in a line from Meredith to Gisborne.
I suspect it might miss us. But lets see.
They are moving very very slowly so I think you might be right and greater Melbourne will largely miss out today, unless another line appears.
Sounding from last night looks very good, positive above 820hpa and a great amount of CAPE above it. My worry is that it's a little too windy at ground level this morning and the shear isnt off the chart great. By 2pm we should know if it's party time.
I rode my bike to work today. Sure fire way of making sure
OK wind hasnt picked up, just a nice SE breeze feeding in. Looks better now.
I suspect we won't see much here in Melbourne. Reckon it's all going to be out in the west of the state.
Next week (from Tuesday) looks to have plenty of action.
Yeah its been showing up on the charts for a few days now. Looks like initially a bit of a bombing low pulling a trough down with it then becoming stationary for at least a few days.
Firing up around Swan Hill and the dividing range again, moving northwards very slowly. Might not be a show in Melbourne but looks like being decent totals around later tonight.
Looks like it's happening around the vic alps too. Just what they need, more thunderstorms
Brewing up in a line Daylesford Macedon Flowerdale and Marysville.
Looks too far north to affect the 'burbs today.
Ive got a feeling NSW is going to pop soon too
Looks like it for mid coastal NSW.
Hai it looks that way.
It's not fair. We've had no rain all year, and it's pouring in Buxton and Marysville - both only 10 mins away, and not a drop of it here Lots of thunder & lightning, no rain!!!
Looks like today could be a goer further south. Almost no wind here and plenty of cooking going on. Once again around 2pm we'll know where the action will be at.
Shit is just starting to get real. This will be a big storm day.
East coast looks very very wet this week, and later on a couple of big lows off the NW of the country too. Please send some rain down to VIC.
Wonder how much we'll get down in Melbourne. Need rain soon.
EC is suggesting nothing - it's all going to be east of us.