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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Dec 3, 2012.
GFS and AXS both suggesting OK totals for the next week. Not great, but better than last week.
BOM's 8 day rainfall
Interesting that the NT hasn't had it's monsoon yet. Apparently they had the hottest january on record.
Yeah but it's part of the reason why we've had such hot air coming from central Australia all summer.
Reports from QLD this morning are that it's raining, a lot.
Expecting another wet and windy low over the next 48 hrs
Had a record cold month here too..overnight minima 1.9 degrees below average to date (sshhhh don't tell PG)
BOM havent released that one yet
Fire near Yan Yean showing up on the radar
Stay safe out there!
Plenty of smoke haze over the city now.
Just got home to a white yard covered in hail
I thought the fire was at Campbellfield, rather than Yan Yean?
Next week is shaping as a bit of a break to this dry weather in the SE.
Both GFS and EC suggesting reasonable falls.
Watch for the possible cyclone in the NW (only on EC at this stage)
AXS is also on board, but the nature and positioning (not to mention the shear number!) of lows makes it look a little unrealistic to me at the moment. Still, I wont complain when there's rain falling. It also looks like the East coast might get a little bit of respite from the heavy rain. Interior of the country will get a good soak, which will keep those really hot days to a minimum.
I still find it astounding that it's rained once this year and this is the 19th Feb and no one is really complaining too much. I drove over Cardinia on Saturday and it's almost full.
This morning GFS is calling for very wet weather in the SE mid next week. Although the charts are very messy with all kinds of lows going on, so I wouldnt take too much notice 168hrs out.
And yet EC has bugger all for Melbourne - all happening to the east of us again.
Can someone explain how the low pressure system currently off the east coast is (according to the predictions) able to head westwards back onto the coast against the west to east flow of weather at these latitudes?
From the satellite pics it seems to be moving eastwards away from us yet weatherzone was predicting a 100% (its now 90%) chance of 40-80mm of rain on Friday.
drawing energy from the warm ocean pool creating a sharp pressure gradient to spin against like a yo yo..if that makes sense
Today is forecast to storm in the SE, which will be a welcome change after some seriously blustery SE/E winds overnight. It's calmed down now and is quite humid for this time of the day, so i'm thinking it could be on the cards later on.
Yes, looks like a very high chance
Inland NSW will flood over the weekend.
Snapper huge this morning..but the low looks like it will miss SEQ and hit from @ Grafton down.
Don't need more rain at the moment
Acacia's are just falling over in the slightest wind in the waterlogged topsoil
Nice sounding this morning:
Already firing in a line N/S from Albury to Traralgon.
Even though its a fair while out, ACCESS is suggesting a monsoon trough breaking through for VIC and Central NSW Thurs/Fri next week. Not holding my breath this far out, though its something to keep our eyes on
Yes, that was suggested earlier.
EC is on board with good rainfall in the SE. The chance of the TC in the NW has abated by the looks of it.
A couple of N/S lines brewing. Nice line through Albury - Sale has been going for the last hour. A new one a little further west might reach down to lower central areas later.
it was the failure of the big NW feeds that did so much damage in the big 2000 drought
I've mentioned it before, but I remember reading a paper at the time suggesting climate change had led to irreversible decline of these weather features.
A TS cell has popped up over Coldstream.
It's getting real now.
Yeh, small cells everywhere on the radar now.
i just clicked on all the capital city rain radars at BOM and only hobart isnt showing rainfall
Raining in Perth, in the middle of summer. Good grief.
3pm GFS run is more exciting for NSW.
Donza, do you have a boat?
Can you remember any key words? Would be interesting to track it down and read it now.
Wish that seabreeze would piss off so those storms could push down the bay side area. Grrr
the force field is keeping them north of a line between Caufield and Melton.
The power is off here, funny thing is that we haven't had a big storm here yet!
We had a big storm!!
Trees down everywhere, front fence down, kitchen flooded.
But the good news is - huge amount of rain - first rain this year!
We lost power for about 10 mins only
Yeah some rumbling and lightning on the horizon in St Kilda but no meaningful action.
Good stuff, patiently waiting for it to come over the range but it seems to have stalled over Healesville
Had a fire behind us as well, presumably lightning, website suggests it's contained now.
Bugger all rain in the inner east.
Got 15mm yesterday evening and overnight!
Most of that rain missed us - amazing lightning show though.
A mm or 2 here overnight, nothing huge but better than nothing. Today is worth another shot too, I get the feeling it wont be as intense as yesterday was, state-wide at least, but there could be some good falls in the West, and of course on the ranges.
It takes a huge amount of energy to get troughs like this to push themselves over the dividing range and still have enough energy left to produce meaningful storms. Yesterday we saw the perfect example of them getting over the range then struggling to penetrate too far south on the other side of it. I believe this is due to the positive buoyancy level and the amount of energy required to not only get it to that point but get it all over the range, which leaves not much 'juice' for storms on the other side. I hope i've explained that in laymens terms good enough. If anyone wants to correct me or propose another theory please do so.
I should add to the above post, there are so many variables involved in a trough/storm situation, that pinning them on 1 variable is kind of pointless.
Rain water came under a roller door at the shop. So last night I was down there moving stock and mopping floors etc.
Small showers firing around Healesville this morning.
I think we got enough to dampen the top 1mm of soil, that's about it.
Well I went to put the bins out while it was raining and the road was wet but the concrete side walk wasnt soaked through. It's been that long since it's rained. Let's hope today areas south of Melbourne get a soak.