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Sizzling Summer Soliloquies

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Dec 3, 2012.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS and AXS both suggesting OK totals for the next week. Not great, but better than last week.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    BOM's 8 day rainfall

    [​IMG]

    Interesting that the NT hasn't had it's monsoon yet. Apparently they had the hottest january on record.
     
    #502 Claude Cat, Feb 18, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah but it's part of the reason why we've had such hot air coming from central Australia all summer.

    Reports from QLD this morning are that it's raining, a lot.
     
  4. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^^^
    can confirm
    Expecting another wet and windy low over the next 48 hrs
    Had a record cold month here too..overnight minima 1.9 degrees below average to date (sshhhh don't tell PG)
     
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM havent released that one yet [​IMG]
     
    #505 Vermillion, Feb 18, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Fire near Yan Yean showing up on the radar

    [​IMG]

    Stay safe out there!
     
    #506 Claude Cat, Feb 18, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Plenty of smoke haze over the city now.
     
  8. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just got home to a white yard covered in hail
     
  9. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought the fire was at Campbellfield, rather than Yan Yean?

     
    #509 teckel, Feb 18, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Next week is shaping as a bit of a break to this dry weather in the SE.
    Both GFS and EC suggesting reasonable falls.
    Watch for the possible cyclone in the NW (only on EC at this stage)

    [​IMG]
     
    #510 Claude Cat, Feb 19, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS is also on board, but the nature and positioning (not to mention the shear number!) of lows makes it look a little unrealistic to me at the moment. Still, I wont complain when there's rain falling. It also looks like the East coast might get a little bit of respite from the heavy rain. Interior of the country will get a good soak, which will keep those really hot days to a minimum.

    I still find it astounding that it's rained once this year and this is the 19th Feb and no one is really complaining too much. I drove over Cardinia on Saturday and it's almost full.
     
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This morning GFS is calling for very wet weather in the SE mid next week. Although the charts are very messy with all kinds of lows going on, so I wouldnt take too much notice 168hrs out.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And yet EC has bugger all for Melbourne - all happening to the east of us again.
     
  14. D_Dog

    D_Dog Hard Yards

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    Can someone explain how the low pressure system currently off the east coast is (according to the predictions) able to head westwards back onto the coast against the west to east flow of weather at these latitudes?

    From the satellite pics it seems to be moving eastwards away from us yet weatherzone was predicting a 100% (its now 90%) chance of 40-80mm of rain on Friday.
     
  15. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    drawing energy from the warm ocean pool creating a sharp pressure gradient to spin against like a yo yo..if that makes sense
     
  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    #516 Majikthise, Feb 20, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Today is forecast to storm in the SE, which will be a welcome change after some seriously blustery SE/E winds overnight. It's calmed down now and is quite humid for this time of the day, so i'm thinking it could be on the cards later on.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, looks like a very high chance

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #518 Claude Cat, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  19. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

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    Inland NSW will flood over the weekend.
    Looks hectic
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sure does

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #520 Claude Cat, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  21. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snapper huge this morning..but the low looks like it will miss SEQ and hit from @ Grafton down.
    Don't need more rain at the moment
    Acacia's are just falling over in the slightest wind in the waterlogged topsoil
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #522 Vermillion, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Already firing in a line N/S from Albury to Traralgon.
     
  24. oxypHos

    oxypHos First Runs

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    Even though its a fair while out, ACCESS is suggesting a monsoon trough breaking through for VIC and Central NSW Thurs/Fri next week. Not holding my breath this far out, though its something to keep our eyes on
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, that was suggested earlier.
    EC is on board with good rainfall in the SE. The chance of the TC in the NW has abated by the looks of it.

    [​IMG]
     
    #525 Claude Cat, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A couple of N/S lines brewing. Nice line through Albury - Sale has been going for the last hour. A new one a little further west might reach down to lower central areas later.
     
  27. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    nice
    it was the failure of the big NW feeds that did so much damage in the big 2000 drought
    I've mentioned it before, but I remember reading a paper at the time suggesting climate change had led to irreversible decline of these weather features.
     
    #527 MisterMxyzptlk, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A TS cell has popped up over Coldstream.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    STW up.

    [​IMG]

    Will update.
     
    #529 Claude Cat, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's getting real now.
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, small cells everywhere on the radar now.
     
  32. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    i just clicked on all the capital city rain radars at BOM and only hobart isnt showing rainfall
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Raining in Perth, in the middle of summer. Good grief.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    3pm GFS run is more exciting for NSW.

    [​IMG]

    Donza, do you have a boat?
     
    #534 Claude Cat, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can you remember any key words? Would be interesting to track it down and read it now.
     
    #535 Rush, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  36. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wish that seabreeze would piss off so those storms could push down the bay side area. Grrr
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    [​IMG] the force field is keeping them north of a line between Caufield and Melton.
     
    #537 Claude Cat, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  38. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    The power is off here, funny thing is that we haven't had a big storm here yet!
     
  39. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    We had a big storm!!
    Trees down everywhere, front fence down, kitchen flooded.
    But the good news is - huge amount of rain - first rain this year!
    We lost power for about 10 mins only [​IMG]
     
    #539 teckel, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  40. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah some rumbling and lightning on the horizon in St Kilda but no meaningful action.
     
  41. GS

    GS A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good stuff, patiently waiting for it to come over the range but it seems to have stalled over Healesville [​IMG]

    Had a fire behind us as well, presumably lightning, website suggests it's contained now.
     
    #541 GS, Feb 21, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Bugger all rain in the inner east.
     
  43. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    Got 15mm yesterday evening and overnight![​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     
    #543 snow777, Feb 22, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  44. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    Most of that rain missed us - amazing lightning show though.
     
    #544 snow777, Feb 22, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A mm or 2 here overnight, nothing huge but better than nothing. Today is worth another shot too, I get the feeling it wont be as intense as yesterday was, state-wide at least, but there could be some good falls in the West, and of course on the ranges.

    It takes a huge amount of energy to get troughs like this to push themselves over the dividing range and still have enough energy left to produce meaningful storms. Yesterday we saw the perfect example of them getting over the range then struggling to penetrate too far south on the other side of it. I believe this is due to the positive buoyancy level and the amount of energy required to not only get it to that point but get it all over the range, which leaves not much 'juice' for storms on the other side. I hope i've explained that in laymens terms good enough. If anyone wants to correct me or propose another theory please do so.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I should add to the above post, there are so many variables involved in a trough/storm situation, that pinning them on 1 variable is kind of pointless.
     
  47. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain water came under a roller door at the shop. So last night I was down there moving stock and mopping floors etc.
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Small showers firing around Healesville this morning.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think we got enough to dampen the top 1mm of soil, that's about it.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well I went to put the bins out while it was raining and the road was wet but the concrete side walk wasnt soaked through. It's been that long since it's rained. Let's hope today areas south of Melbourne get a soak.