Sizzling Summer Soliloquies

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Dec 3, 2012.

  1. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Would these people have no idea how these seasonal forecasts are derived?

    Would these people also have any idea of the predictability window around ENSO events in our Autumn?
     
    #351 Rush, Jan 27, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  2. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    PG - I read the notes in detail - I just thought the headline for the rainfall chart was a little overly negative - when what stood out in both sets of charts was rainfall is going back to normal across most of the forecast area in the SE and the temps were on the whole below average.

    And in the case of SE Queensland north east NSW we were seeing an abrupt change in actual conditions to what is being forecast as we head into February.

    Last year we had a big call on El Nino only to see a complete collapse - one of the most rapid on record.

    I realize all the statistical variability were laid out in the accompanying notes.

    I still think there is a little too much institutional bias across many meteorological institutions nowadays - and maybe a little more neutrality would be good to see in the headline call - which is what the media go onto report.
     
  3. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow
    Byron Bay recording solid 100km/h wind with 120km/h gusts
     
  4. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Location:
    On a wave or mountain face near you.
    Just been out for a look around.
    Broken Head
    [​IMG]

    Belongil
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    [​IMG]

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    The Wreck
    [​IMG]

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    Main Beach
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    Wategos
    [​IMG]

    Tallows beach out there somewhere
    [​IMG]
     
    #354 parkmonkey, Jan 28, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  5. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wind replaced by torrential rain here
    The view from our street today

    [​IMG]

    the seagulls behind a rock

    [​IMG]

    Kirra point looking more like the North Atlantic

    [​IMG]
     
    #355 MisterMxyzptlk, Jan 28, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  6. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is a pretty nice 6ft left running right through the middle of Allagai Bay, 4 guys on it. Macs coping the swell full on.

    I have put the storm covers on the chook house.

    Wind is up but the rain has backed off.
     
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Snow a very good chance later on Friday.
     
  9. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doot doot doot
    Lookin out my back door!
    Amazing what you see if you get up early enough during an ex tropical cyclone

     
    #359 MisterMxyzptlk, Jan 29, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  10. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i thought that'sd what building codes were for?
     
  11. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The roofers are out this morning
    I hope they're using cyclone wire to attach the corrugated iron
     
  12. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Queensland mate.
     
    #362 parkmonkey, Jan 29, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  13. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Queensland, where the local council lets everyone build on a floodplain, then expects the rest of the country to pick up the tab for their stupidity!
     
    #363 Nidecker, Jan 29, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  14. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    oh come on - privatising the gains and socialising the losses is a great australian tradition.....i can feel another insurance premium / land valuation review coming on
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A bit more rain in the SE on Friday.

    [​IMG]

    Still looks like a chance of snow on the peaks on Friday afternoon / evening.
     
    #366 Claude Cat, Jan 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  17. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    Sounds good! [​IMG]- I hope that it doesn’t fizzle.
     
    #367 snow777, Jan 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2013
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO still not a lot of moisture in it. 10-15mm; the key will be how much is left in the tank when the colder air moves through late Friday.
     
  19. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    Will be good even if it is just rain IMO.
     
  20. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    and iit looks like the fridays are still the day....
     
  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM is showing quite different figures for TTS compared to Perisher. Following weekend front looks to be weakening as well.

    Would be nice to warm up the crowding betting game again.

    First quality snow - all sorts of questions for the crowd to crunch on.
     
  22. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    ground cooler ?
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS doesn't see much out of this IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    #373 Claude Cat, Jan 30, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes it is fizzled out in the face of a northern blow in.

    Hopefully not an omen for the year ahead.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I need 0.3mm more rain tomorrow to get above the lowest ever rainfall total for Jan in my area. Currently on 9.8mm, previous lowest was 10.1mm in 2009. Minimums 0.5C below average and maximums on average.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC still with 10mm out of this, but drying up before it gets cold enough.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Friday's system backing away by the hour. Hard to see any snow for the mainland now. This afternoon/evening looks reasonably damp in Melbourne, but it dries out fast tomorrow.
     
  28. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It hasnt rained for a long time, I have always felt that once there is a considerable lack of rainfall for a prolonged period like the last month, it is always 'harder' for a system to produce rain. Ones that would drop 10mm normally now drop 2mm etc. I'm not surprised the models are backing away and I wouldnt be surprised if we see less rain today than progged.
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes, I tend to agree - we see systems dry up in this sort of scenario.
    At least we're starting to see a few troughy systems heading south now, so perhaps the break in the dry spell isn't that far off.
     
  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it did end quite abruptly, so hopefully it kicks back in the next 6 weeks. Quite sick of the 4 days of dry i've had in a row, if it's not going to snow it better rain instead.
     
  31. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Nope. Another record-breaking heatwave is on the cards next week across Australia.
     
    #381 Rush, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    FACT.
     
    #382 Vermillion, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yes. Tuesday & Wednesday look hot

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Thursday and Friday have potential as well into NSW. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #383 Claude Cat, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Rain on it's way (will update)

    [​IMG]
     
    #384 Claude Cat, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    PG - any thoughts on why we're having such an extended dry period in the SE? The SOI has been neutral for several months; yet outlooks show it continuing to be dry (although cooler than normal) for Feb through to April.
     
    #385 Claude Cat, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Topical

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/january-hot-or-not-20130131-2dmy7.html

    yet that doesn't marry up with what the BOM is saying / showing.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.seaus.shtml

    [​IMG]
     
    #386 Claude Cat, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of a cell heading Geelongs way on the radar. Finally something to look at on the radar.
     
  38. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Read that article with the quotes from the Weatherzone meteorologist, and then look at:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3050.latest.shtml
    and
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201201/html/IDCJDW3050.201201.shtml

    and then go and scratch your head.
     
    #388 Rush, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  39. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    No idea. I'll go and ask someone.
     
    #389 Rush, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 13, 2013
  40. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Glad I brought the wet weather gear for the ride home.
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Smashing down in St Kilda.
    Is that what rain looks like?
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    STW up.

    Careful on your ride home PG

    [​IMG]

    Will update.
     
    #392 Claude Cat, Jan 31, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013
  43. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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  44. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Been pissing down in Sleepy Hollow. Wish they had it at Hotham.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    22mm so far in Melbourne.
     
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    So 18mm at my place so far, so much for beating that all time low. Lots of flash flooding im told too.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Drove home at 8pm and the roads are pretty flooded.
     
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    22mm at my place overnight and still the odd shower coming through, although it seems to have dried out as expected. This takes my monthly total to over 30mm, which isnt that far off average, which is one reason why I dont like monthly totals as they can often mis-represent the way the rain fell through the month. Not that im complaining about the rain though, just it's about 15C too warm.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    We had around 15mm, I see the CBD had nearly 30mm.
    The water tank has something in it now, hopefully the garden will green up a bit.
     
  50. snow777

    snow777 First Runs

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    Only had 1mm here. [​IMG]
     
    #400 snow777, Feb 1, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 12, 2013