Snow depth at Spencers Creek

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FatBob, Sep 27, 2006.

  1. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    432
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    Canberra
    The snow depth at spencers creek has not been updated since the 15th of Sept.
    I thought that they did it every Thursday during the season.
    Have they just given up this year?

    Won't this throw out the stat's? I am sure last Thursday it would have been much lower than 65cm.
     
  2. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,811
    Likes Received:
    18,033
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Latest reading on snowy hydro website is 32cm.
     
  3. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    432
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    Canberra
    Fair enough then. I was looking at the BOM site.

    Do you have a link to the Snowy Hydro page?
     
  4. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2000
    Messages:
    15,103
    Likes Received:
    590
    Location:
    Space..traveling through the vast non emptiness
    #4 agentBM, Sep 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  5. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2005
    Messages:
    8,925
    Likes Received:
    8,792
    Location:
    The Shire, Sydney
    Wow, the Three Mile Dam and Deep Creek charts are a bit sad for 2006. Three Mile Dam barely got off the mark at all.

    Where does it actually say 32cm for Spencers Creek though, or are you just reading that from the graph?
     
  6. churchy

    churchy One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2004
    Messages:
    7,433
    Likes Received:
    6
    hover your mouse over the datapoints and it will give you the y axis value.
     
  7. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2005
    Messages:
    8,925
    Likes Received:
    8,792
    Location:
    The Shire, Sydney
    Thanks churchy, I've looked at those charts loads of times and never you could do that :doh:

    :cheers:
     
  8. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2000
    Messages:
    15,103
    Likes Received:
    590
    Location:
    Space..traveling through the vast non emptiness
    Think the 32 might have been the sum of all the points they use at Spencer's - look at Guthries cam at Charlottes just up the road - no consistent cover.
     
  9. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,811
    Likes Received:
    18,033
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    The measuring points are a fair way up the slope and face more in a south easterly direction than the view on the gutheries cam.
     
    #9 Snow Blowey, Sep 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  10. Alexski

    Alexski Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2001
    Messages:
    556
    Likes Received:
    179
    Location:
    Gosford,NSW,Australia
    2006 has just Pipped 1982 as the worst season on record based on Peak snowdepth. Super job that.
     
  11. ausi ski bum

    ausi ski bum A Local

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    11,857
    Likes Received:
    82
    Location:
    Near Cootamundra NSW
    So if 1982 was worse, was there global warming then as well or does this just happen from time to time.

    If you read Julian Browns book he talks about seasons that never started in the 1960's as well
     
  12. TC

    TC Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 1999
    Messages:
    74,805
    Likes Received:
    10,439
    Location:
    Gulmarg Resort Kashmir
    the 60s and 70s had some shockers
     
    #12 TC, Sep 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  13. Shrek

    Shrek Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2000
    Messages:
    29,356
    Likes Received:
    733
    Location:
    be in the mist
    you missread alexski's comment.
     
    #13 Shrek, Sep 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  14. Shrek

    Shrek Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2000
    Messages:
    29,356
    Likes Received:
    733
    Location:
    be in the mist
    '68 was huge [​IMG]

    and '64
     
    #14 Shrek, Sep 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  15. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,271
    Likes Received:
    1,065
    Location:
    Sydney
    From what I understand this years lack of snow probably has more to do with cold sea surface temperatures causing drought. Warmer water equals more evaporation so more moisture in the atmosphere.

    The charts below show sea surface temps this winter being colder than usual:

    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

    You can see the colder than usual waters off Australias tropical north and in the southern ocean. 1982 was similar I believe in terms of sea surface temps but I can't find a chart for it.

    So, IMO anyway, this years low snowfall was more likely due to natural variations in sea surface temps rather than global warming. I'm no expert though!
     
    #15 BlueHue, Sep 27, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  16. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    66,993
    Likes Received:
    19,304
    Location:
    Yokohama, Japan, Melb. Expat.
    Man made global warming cannot be the "cause" for a single year of bad snowfalls. End of story.

    Global warming would show itself in a statisical trend line of increasing temperatures, along with possibly increasing variability in weather extremes. However, no single weather extreme itself would point to global warming as its cause.

    These statisics must also be coupled with ALL of the naturally occuring cycles, from which the man made effect must be extracted.

    Some of these cycles include:
    - Precession of the equinox
    - The Earth's elliptical orbit
    - Solar cycles (11 year, 22 year, 1500 year cycles, and other longer term ones, etc)
    The 1500 year brightening and dimming cycle of the sun most probably triggered the "Little Ice Age"(from about 1400AD for 400 years), and that we should be approaching a maximum within the next 150 years.
     
  17. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2000
    Messages:
    15,103
    Likes Received:
    590
    Location:
    Space..traveling through the vast non emptiness
    Whilst it is easy to see some temperatures rising over the past 25 years in places - there is a distance to go is there not, on establishing firm data to support warming theory (man / woman made). Surely there is data to support rapid warming according to cycles / events outside of CO2 influence by man, then this could be what is happening yes? Perhaps we are about to discover more about drought cycles, previously unknown, or even larger more planetary cycles giving rise to temperature fluctuations. I guess we perhaps do not havce enough data to establish and regularity in temperature change cycles - we could be in one now, purely natural and counter balanced by a cool period. OUr 150 years of data and some ice / tree / rock core samples tell us a lot, but I reckon on there being much more to discover - which includes next years bumper season giving rise to complaint though.......lift lines too long as there will be too many people there too often.

    We were only discussing Canada's worst start since 1974 18 mths ago, to be quashed with some big falls in late Jan and Feb. Now, we hear a "deep" winter is forecast / predicted for Nth America. Maybe past data avaiable to us, is unreliable, due to the fact we do not have enough of it.
     
  18. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,376
    Likes Received:
    16,636
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    quiet plase genius at work :rolleyes:
     
    #18 Majikthise, Sep 28, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    64,193
    Likes Received:
    40,404
    Location:
    Mountains
    Anyone who thinks 1982 was worse than 2006 has rocks in their head or has not been around long enough to understand that Snow depths fluctuate from year to year but the obvious snow depth trend line over the past 20 years is ..... downwards.

    If there was no snow making this year only 2 resorts would have opened. In 1982 resorts opened on natural snow.

    Moving on.
     
  20. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    78,256
    Likes Received:
    48,106
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Snowmaking has turned this into an Apples vs Oranges debate - people are getting confused by quantity of natural snow vs quality of skiing.

    Buller would have opened for about 10 days this season on natural snow alone, yet managed 100 days because of snowmaking. Even though 1982 would have had slightly more natural snow, the end result of the season for low end skiers and business operators is that the season was viable due to snowmaking.
     
  21. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    432
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    Canberra
    What has snow making got to do with the depth at Spencers Creek???

    We are comparing 1 crap season 1982 with this crap season.
    Point is every now and then you get a Crap season.

    We all know climate change is happening but it is NOT what caused this CRAP season.

    A point made by the fact that 1982 had an = crap season.

    Now you can move on......please.
     
    #21 FatBob, Sep 28, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  22. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    64,193
    Likes Received:
    40,404
    Location:
    Mountains
    In that case the every now and then crap season of 2006 ... was way crapper than 1982.

    Which was my point.

    Climate change may well have been the factor that made 2006 crapper than 1982 in the whole ups n downs of good seasons and bad seasons hence my reference to the trend line for the average of all seasons being a downward one.

    Who knows ....

    i.e. don't let the snow making on a few resort runs blemish the reality of the down ward trend at Spencers Creek

    moving on.
     
  23. Stratus

    Stratus A Local

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,113
    Likes Received:
    296
    Location:
    Edithvale VIC
    It shows that Spencers depth of 1982 is just another statisctic that generalises on the Australian Ski Season, that dosn't take into account snow conditions and quality, which are very important.

    But this is all we've got to compare.
     
    #23 Stratus, Sep 28, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  24. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    23,811
    Likes Received:
    18,033
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Agreed.

    20 well spaced 10cm falls could produce the same peak depth at spencers creek as one large snowfall of 90cm.

    Total snowfall for each would vary significantly.
     
    #24 Snow Blowey, Sep 29, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  25. Faaaark

    Faaaark First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2005
    Messages:
    101
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Adelaide - Canberra
    Have the stations ever been moved slightly to other positions since recording began?

    Has the frequency of recording ever changed over the years (daily, weekly etc)?

    Has the clearing of natural vegetation ever occured near the stations (thereby influencing the readings with abnormal snowdrifts when compared to previous years)?

    Just wondering if these issues were a factor in the measurements over the years. I've never been to these stations and don't know much about them, but I'm curious to know...
     
    #25 Faaaark, Sep 29, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  26. PowderMadness

    PowderMadness First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 20, 2005
    Messages:
    17
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    Looking at the three charts on the snowy hydro it is obvious that 1982 was a superior to this year, the depth in 1982 at Deep creek for the first half of the season was similar to Spencers creek depth - must have been cold for little melt diference between deep creek and spencers.

    I would suggest that late june 1982 would have been good snow quality, with lots of terrain features to destroy your skis on.
     
  27. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    30,307
    Likes Received:
    4,243
    Location:
    NSW Mid North Coast
    I skied approximately 2 half days that year. I was in Thredbo for the week. No snow making, and 82 was great for ripping great hunks out of your skis.

    Want to see extreme's. Ski Thredbo in 1981, and then front up again in 1982.
     
  28. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    30,307
    Likes Received:
    4,243
    Location:
    NSW Mid North Coast
    Recent work by christy and spencer 2006 suggest that the increase in average temperatures across the southern hemisphere of only 0.05 per decade.

    Not enough to have a major effect on Australian ski resorts.

    2006 was bad like 1982. As Sandy said above there are a whole bunch of other factors that cause a good or bad season.
     
  29. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    83
    Anybody remember what was the Bushfire season likes in 1982....
     
  30. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Messages:
    0
    Likes Received:
    5
    This leads into something I mentioned in another thread a fews days ago and was widely poo-pooed for saying it. i.e. That I'm more interested in what's happening in Australia as a result of climate change than anywhere else. If, as you say, there has been an increase of average temperature of .05C per decade (since when?) then why wouldn't there be a detrimental effect on snowfall in Australia? Our resorts our all around 36 degrees latitude and top out around 2000 metres and under so it stands to reason any shift up or down in average temperature would have to have some effect. Daytime temperatures in Australia at around 1500 metres and up during winter generally aren't much below zero except on the coldest days.

    Looking at other countries of a similar latitude north and south it is difficult to compare apples with apples; South American ski resorts are of a similar latitude but much higher. NZ resorts sit further south than ours - even the North Island resorts are sitting at around Wilsons Prom's latitude. NZ is also in Australia's shadow to some extent in that if cold fronts hit us they usually have lost their intensity by the time they pass over NZ. This year was a good example of the other scenario of the good stuff missing us and hitting there. In the Northern Hemisphere Japanese resorts on Honshu are of a similar latitude but are fortunate to have the Sea of Japan to the west and a cold landmass further west. The US resorts of a similar latitude also sit at a much higher altitude and are subject to different weather patterns than Australia's.

    I guess what I am saying is that if any country with an interest in snowsports is in a vulnerable position re climate change it is ours. Could we all be skiing in NZ in 40 years? Dunno, all you can go on is what the majority of the experts are saying and the majority of the experts are saying it's getting warmer.

    Please feel free to educate me on why I'm wrong, I'm used to it being married and all.
     
    #30 adminvb, Sep 29, 2006
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2013
  31. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2001
    Messages:
    30,307
    Likes Received:
    4,243
    Location:
    NSW Mid North Coast
    Well in 40 years time ill be approaching 90. If at that time im still skiing, ill be very surprised.

    But yes - our ski areas have always been marginal over the last 100 years.
     
  32. JimH

    JimH Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2002
    Messages:
    126
    Likes Received:
    30
    Location:
    Melbourne
    82-83 Summer brought us the "Ash Wednesday" bushfires and dust storms over Melbourne .....
     
    #32 JimH, Oct 2, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    73,131
    Likes Received:
    28,165
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    something that is likely to occur this fire season. it doesnt look good, ill get some of CFA vegetation index maps to show u how dry it really is.
     
    #33 Vermillion, Oct 2, 2006
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013