Snow forecasters comparison daily

Should I make the website (read comment below before answering)

  • Yes

    Votes: 21 91.3%
  • No

    Votes: 2 8.7%

  • Total voters
    23
  • Poll closed .

fenrir

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Just to give you an idea of my extremely messy data collection, here's some pictures of my excel sheet which has all my data prior to inserting it into the graphic each morning.

This is for the next 7 days
7days.PNG
This is for each individual day
Daily.PNG

And this was when i was working out what weightings worked best for the weighted average
working.PNG

And this is why i don't publish my excel sheet directly here lol
For next time a database is probably a better way to go. Excel is great for displaying data but as you have found out it does have some limitations with this kind of analysis unless you go into advanced functionality, are which point it's easier to bite the bullet and store the information in a database anyway.
 
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Star_Hawk

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For next time a database is probably a better way to go. Excel is great for displaying data but as you have found out it does have some limitations with this kind of analysis unless you go into advanced functionality, are which point it's easier to bite the bullet and store the information in a database anyway.
While that's probably true, I've been using excel for a long time and that sheet makes sense to me. I know it makes no sense or looks messy to other people, hence why i use those graphics every day instead of showing that.

I may move to a database, depending on the complexity of what you guys want to be added for next season. Ill make the call then on weather it'll be easier to move to a database or not.

But to answer your original question, as you can see i do retain the next 7 days numbers for each forecaster.
 
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janesweather

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@Star_Hawk can I just check what exactly you are using for my projections? (I'm trying to reconcile and struggling to see what you are using - ie Thursday to Wednesday daily CNS for Perisher Valley added up to about 10cm on the 12Z runs in the hour before you posted this morning but you have about 18cm?, or are you taking just one of the models?) - just wanting to check exactly what is going into your analysis so I can make sure it's right!
 

Star_Hawk

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@Star_Hawk can I just check what exactly you are using for my projections? (I'm trying to reconcile and struggling to see what you are using - ie Thursday to Wednesday daily CNS for Perisher Valley added up to about 10cm on the 12Z runs in the hour before you posted this morning but you have about 18cm?, or are you taking just one of the models?) - just wanting to check exactly what is going into your analysis so I can make sure it's right!

I’ve been using your consensus projections. I do believe I’ve accidentally used the Thredbo number instead of the Perisher one this morning, I’ve been extremely busy and did this is about 10 mins right before driving to Canberra this morning. I’ve corrected this in my graph, so your accuracy rating tomorrow will be correct, but I really don’t have the time right now to re post the graphics.

Really sorry for that, will make sure I don’t stuff it up again. I’ll edit the post to include this.
 
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janesweather

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I’ve been using your consensus projections. I do believe I’ve accidentally used the Thredbo number instead of the Perisher one this morning, I’ve been extremely busy and did this is about 10 mins right before driving to Canberra this morning. I’ve corrected this in my graph, so your accuracy rating tomorrow will be correct, but I really don’t have the time right now to re post the graphics.

Really sorry for that, will make sure I don’t stuff it up again. I’ll edit the post to include this.
No problem!
Just wanted to check what was actually going into your calculations :)

For everyone following along, that means the Jane's Weather forecast is the average of GFS, GEM and ACCESS for 1800m looking at a point just east of Perisher's actual location.
 

janesweather

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In excellent news, we have finally fixed Hotham and Perisher on https://janesweather.com/janes-update/snow-forecast
Now they both look at a spot which is much closer to actual conditions experienced at those locations (models are divided into grids and the closest grid for both of those was a little too far to the east, missing the bigger falls that come in from the west [ie in the shadow of the ranges], and out of sync with the other resorts)
I was slightly mortified when you picked Perisher due to this problem! But we've finally worked out how to manipulate that data and show the right stuff. So, we'll see what that does to the accuracy :)

So, now the Jane's Weather forecast is the average of GFS, GEM and ACCESS for 1800m looking at a point just west of Perisher's actual location.
 

Star_Hawk

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In excellent news, we have finally fixed Hotham and Perisher on https://janesweather.com/janes-update/snow-forecast
Now they both look at a spot which is much closer to actual conditions experienced at those locations (models are divided into grids and the closest grid for both of those was a little too far to the east, missing the bigger falls that come in from the west [ie in the shadow of the ranges], and out of sync with the other resorts)
I was slightly mortified when you picked Perisher due to this problem! But we've finally worked out how to manipulate that data and show the right stuff. So, we'll see what that does to the accuracy :)

So, now the Jane's Weather forecast is the average of GFS, GEM and ACCESS for 1800m looking at a point just west of Perisher's actual location.
Great. I use Perisher because of the snow stake cam, it makes validating the numbers a bit easier. Your still significantly more accurate than the next nearest anyways, I assume this will only widen the gap.
 
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janesweather

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Great. I use Perisher because of the snow stake cam, it makes validating the numbers a bit easier. Your still significantly more accurate than the next nearest anyways, I assume this will only widen the gap.
Well, it is only the average of three weather models, adjusted for local conditions. My input is the commentary that I write to go along side it :)
 
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Star_Hawk

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Forecast's for Thursday the 4th of August. Font has been changed again, removing the background glow around the letters. The first graphic has ben re-worked a bit to make it easier to read and less messy. The second graphic has also been changed slightly.

EDIT: Janes should show 2cm for today instead of 0cm.
Data for th July (27).png

Next 5 Days (11).png

Ranks (22).png
 
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dmz

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Just curious as to your forecast cutoff time. For example someone's website might currently say 10cm of snow for tomorrow but they change it at 11.30pm tonight to say 30cm for tomorrow. Do you take 10 or 30?
 

Star_Hawk

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Just curious as to your forecast cutoff time. For example someone's website might currently say 10cm of snow for tomorrow but they change it at 11.30pm tonight to say 30cm for tomorrow. Do you take 10 or 30?
I update it up to midday. Otherwise, the forecasts for the current day wouldn't really work.
 
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Star_Hawk

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A few things to note about todays forecast. The weighted average has decreased by 5cm but its still the highest its been since the season starter storm. A large chunk of the weighted average today is on day 7, and therfore you cant see it on the next 5 days graph just yet. Also, while the weighted average decreased slightly, there is much better consensus between the forecasters today than yesterday, meaning the outcome is far more likely. Anyway, here are the forecasts for Friday the 12th of August.
Data for th July (36).png

Next 5 Days (19).png

Ranks (30).png
 

Star_Hawk

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Just have to say it
Not only does @Richard run one of the best social media forums, but some of the members really do put big personal effort into great content.
Well done @Star_Hawk :thumbs:
And thanks @janesweather for the access to your top knowledge:thumbs:
Thanks :)
As I've mentioned before, ill defiantly take feedback at the end of the season and implement any suggestions people have, since i plan on doing this next season as well. Hopefully it'll be even better next season.
One thing i defiantly will do next season is add BOM and Yr.no, as that's been requested a lot.
 
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