Resource Snow prediction accuracy thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Jellybeans, Aug 4, 2017.

  1. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Being self interested - at what point (hrs) out does a 'hope' / potential activity become a thing?
    ...Is it 72 - 96 hrs a rough estimate? (Hoping schl hols' trip benefits!)

    Or only when the various models settle? So each system suite different?

    ...oh be great to know as to by how many degrees of latitude we missed the last few systems (ie. In terms of the northerly maximum of the 850mb freeze or 5400m point)? Feels like they've been south of Tassie (43-44+ deg)?
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    For general information for systems, when the models settle together or about 4-7 days

    The more precise details probably 24-72 hours
     
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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Depends on the model. EC perhaps 192h.
    GFS 174 hours if you’re game, 144 otherwise!
     
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  4. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Cheers CC
    And Access G?
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm not a big fan. Access R can be quite accurate, but of course that's very short range.
     
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  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not even sure there is a place for AXS-G
     
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  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    They are both derivatives of UKMO, but I reckon the real UKMO is better than them both. It's hard to find it though.

    I'm not a big fan for AXS-R for precip (exaggerates it). It's good for temps though.
     
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  8. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The UKMO maps I've seen generally don't go beyond 100H.
     
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  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's supposed to go to T+192 or +240 from memory. I will find the link later.

    Edit: I think public access is up to +180 or something.
     
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  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    New season, more predictions tables.
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Okay here we go, the end of season data dump is about to be incoming....

    Firstly we start with a prediction table that I didn’t actually make at the time. I basically put together all of these stats together this afternoon.

    That’s just so we can actually document the May system we had this year.

    Here is some model scans.

    Of the 27th of May, first node:


    And of the 29th of May, second node:


    Remember that the table stats are based on Perisher.
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    28th-30th June.

     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    10-14th July


    First node on the 11th:


    Second node on the 13th:
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    8-12 August.

    First node on the 9th.


    Second node on the 10th

    Third node on the 11th.
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    19-22 August

     
  16. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great work, @Jellybeans . So from my quick perusal of these stats, Yr No/EC had the most reliable short-term predictions?
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another year, another comparative predictions table..... 2019 edition.

    Firstly the disclaimer from two years ago.
    This year I examined 4 systems this year to add to the now reasonable wide catalogue of predictions accrued over the last three years. We now have:
    • 15 systems in the 4 day predictions table catalogue.
    • 18 systems in the 7 day predictions table catalogue.

    They are roughly based around a 3-4 day and 6-7 day range. These are all based upon how far away the various predictions are from the storm total measured at Perisher. The median figure was used for ranges of figures. Points are based upon the bracketed numbers, with totals on the right. Here they are....



    This season we see a clean sweep from EC, followed by GFS and Weatherzone in the 7 day prediction category. 4 day category sees GFS take the title and EC just behind it.

    Now we add this season’s data from the data of last year and the year before. Gaps in data from previous seasons are not noted.


    7 day category featured EC continuing it's reign at the top. GFS comes to the party this year at second, and ACCESS and Jane tied for third. 4 day category was again taken out by EC, followed by a tie of GFS and ACCESS, and Jane in third.

    And there you have it, another solid season wrapping up. Thanks again to all :thumbs:
     
    #117 Jellybeans, Sep 23, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, EC did well in both 4 day and 7 day predictions.
     
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  19. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  20. mattyv

    mattyv Hard Yards

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    Thanks for gathering some interesting and informative data JB
    I'm sure yourself and POW would have been right up there too :)
     
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  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Great work @Jellybeans
    Do you think the GFS model improved over previous years (noting the off-season upgrade)?
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I thought that as well looking at the data. At least for our part of the world, verification seems to have improved a little bit.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The WZ Team look to have done well.
    BOM looks to have under-cooked a few though. Perhaps a little gunshy with the +IOD in town.

    Grasshopper and the Frog might need to look into other revenue streams...;)

    Cheers for collating @Jellybeans
     
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