Technical Southern hemisphere tropical cyclones outside australia 2020/21

stormkite2000

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Jan 1, 2020
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Hit the edit button to change your post. It's under the Tools button if you're posting on a mobile device

2020-11-06 12.48.07 www.ski.com.au 06ad90491c52.png





There is not edit expired likely. Just wipe the account. Not interested in any further communications on the thread or site.
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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Surprised there isn't much interest in YASA. It is about to drop below 920 minimum MSLP!
JTWC says:

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 174.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TC 05P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 95 KNOTS AT 15/00Z TO 140 KNOTS AT 16/00Z.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 30NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
A 152143Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH THE INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYEWALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 38 FEET.



sh0521.gif


YASA05P.2020121518.Pmin.png
 

StormyLee

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Jul 6, 2019
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Pilbara WA
Surprised there isn't much interest in YASA. It is about to drop below 920 minimum MSLP!
JTWC says:

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 174.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TC 05P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 95 KNOTS AT 15/00Z TO 140 KNOTS AT 16/00Z.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 30NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
A 152143Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH THE INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYEWALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 38 FEET.



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YASA05P.2020121518.Pmin.png

Not much action at all on the cyclone forums these days :( I was wondering the same thing. Will be keeping my eye on this and thinking of the Fijians! Dangerous system.
 
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CCKW

Hard Yards
Dec 14, 2020
44
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Yeah its a real deal cat5,on international wind scale for 5's 140kts sustained eyewall speed.
05P YASA 201216 0000 14.6S 174.1E SHEM 140 914
best track.
 

CCKW

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Dec 14, 2020
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https://disasteralert.pdc.org/disasteralert/
A tropical cyclone forecast has been issued by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) on December 16, 2020, 03:00:00 GMT. Tropical Cyclone - Yasa, currently equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson scale), is located in the S Pacific Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 259 km/h (161 mph), and wind gusts up to 315 km/h (196 mph). According to this forecast (#15), the cyclone is headed East at about 11 km/h (7 mph), and is expected to remain at this strength over the next 24 hours. It is cautioned, however, that the storm's actual position may shift significantly over the next few days. Based on the current forecast (the storm's center and path), Tropical Cyclone - Yasa is within 528 km (328 miles) from Fiji, and the center is expected to make landfall within the next 51 hours, along the shores of/near Northern, as a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of about 241 km/h (150 mph). For the extended forecast, an estimated 165,231 people, 35,155 households, and $1.72 Billion (USD) of infrastructure* are potentially exposed to moderate to severe damaging winds (with damage expected closer to the shores). All shorelines in the path of the storm are exposed to potential storm surge, and inland areas within the proximity of the storm are exposed to potential flooding. Additional updates will be provided as they become available by official sources. *The cost represents the total replacement value of the infrastructure.


https://hazardbrief.pdc.org/PRODUCT...-437e-9caa-5a021aea943c#/update=1608086128839
 

Flowin

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Jul 5, 2019
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363
Pinjarra Hills, QLD
I am guessing by the latest HWRF run 16 Dec00z that maybe YASA is peak strength right now.
So for the first Southern Hemisphere cyclone outside Australia close to us this season and documented in this thread this is the bigger picture of surrounds ATM.
That thing appears to have amazing balanced structure ATM. But I ain’t no expert. Cat 5 on my last read.
Image himawari enhanced infrared sourced from WZ
Edit: just seen that image 7hrs old. So not latest.
Hope it’s path avoids populated areas.
FC911EC7-9BFD-4453-BD89-03ABAAEC092F.jpeg
 

Weathertraveller

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Jan 23, 2020
172
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Northern Gold Coast
I am guessing by the latest HWRF run 16 Dec00z that maybe YASA is peak strength right now.
So for the first Southern Hemisphere cyclone outside Australia close to us this season and documented in this thread this is the bigger picture of surrounds ATM.
That thing appears to have amazing balanced structure ATM. But I ain’t no expert. Cat 5 on my last read.
Image himawari enhanced infrared sourced from WZ
Edit: just seen that image 7hrs old. So not latest.
Hope it’s path avoids populated areas.
FC911EC7-9BFD-4453-BD89-03ABAAEC092F.jpeg
Certainly not looking good for the northern islands of Fiji which include the Yasawas.. Having visited the beautiful Yasawa Islands a few times it will be devastating for the villages there and for the small resorts and other accommodation. I guess they won't have to contend with tourists in the area because of covid, but I suspect that TC Yasa will flatten the islands. Another negative this year for the local people in the villages as they depend on tourism and Yasa is the last thing they need. Sad.
 

Halfhour

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Jan 18, 2021
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FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE GOVERNMENT OF REPUBLIC OF FIJI MEDIA RELEASE No. 3 12pm, Wednesday, 27 January, 2021 WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS WITH POSSIBILITY OF A CYCLONE FORMING OVER WATERS BETWEEN FIJI AND VANUATU A Heavy Rain Warning is in force for Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands and the Lau group. A Flash Flood Alert remains in force for low lying areas and areas adjacent to rivers and streams for northern Vanua Levu; from Labasa to Udu Point, Udu Point to Vaturova, Natewa to Tunuloa District and low lying areas adjacent to Nabouwalu. A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for land areas of eastern half of Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands, the Lau group and Rotuma. A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for Kadavu Passage, Lau and northern Vanua Levu waters and Rotuma Waters. There’s potential for severe weather to affect the Fiji Group in the coming days as a tropical cyclone is likely to form over waters between Fiji and Vanuatu. Tropical disturbance TD04F was upgraded to a tropical depression at 6am this morning and lies to the northwest of New Caledonia. The low located to the east of Vanuatu was upgraded to a tropical disturbance TD05F at 9pm last night and further intensified to a depression at 6am this morning. There is a high potential for one of these two systems to develop into a tropical cyclone over waters between Fiji and Vanuatu from later this week. Meanwhile, another low pressure system is located over the Lau Group. The associated trough remains slow moving over the northern parts of the Fiji Group. It is expected to gradually drift south and affect the rest of the group from tomorrow. Heavy rain and thunderstorm is expected over Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands and the Lau group from tonight and gradually spread to the rest of the group from later tomorrow. This poses the risk of flash flooding of low lying and flood prone areas during persistent localised heavy falls. There’s also risk of flooding of small rivers, creeks and roads. Motorists are advised of poor visibility on roads in areas of heavy rain. Fresh to strong northerly winds with average speed of 55km/hr from tonight over the eastern half of Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands and the Lau group. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northwest to southeast winds, gusty at times. Winds of these strength may sway big trees and cause loose objects to fly. Seafarers are warned of rough to very rough seas, moderate northerly swells and poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms. The current situation is closely monitored. Members of the public are advised to remain updated with the latest weather information. For more details and the latest on weather, please contact the National Weather Forecasting Centre on 6736006, 9905376 or visit the Fiji Meteorological Service’s website, www.met.gov.fj.


96P INVEST 210127 0000 16.4S 170.9E SHEM 25 996
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.3S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270244Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P
WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM

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Halfhour

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
170.3E AT 270600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST IS AROUND 29 TO
30 DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE AND THEN INCREASING TO MODERATE TO
HIGH IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

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Halfhour

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FIJI
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WTPS21 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 170.3E TO 15.6S 174.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291500Z
 
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Halfhour

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https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/fwcn.html#!/warnings_tropical.html
96 has tcfa
WTPS21 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 170.3E TO 15.6S 174.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 169.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 171.1E, APPROXIMATELY
202NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281025Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL
TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291500Z.
//
NNNN

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Halfhour

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Named by fiji
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 175.4
EAST AT 291800 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 175.4E AT 291800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS BY
300600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.9S 176.8E AT 300600UTC
AND NEAR 16.6S 177.5E AT 301200UTC.

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Halfhour

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Yeah Bina was a sneeky spin up.
Here's some info on the systems history.

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.......................................................................................................................................................................................................
 
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Halfhour

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StormyLee

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Jul 6, 2019
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In the N-H wespac.

On another note. I have been given a heads viva another platform i use the mods editing on my posts and claiming trolling whilst being cloaked and not reveling themself are Sandy and Kletterer.

The 2nd is surprising the first is not.

Man, you can be a cranky so and so Nature's Fury. You're obviously very knowledgeable meteorologically and I generally enjoy reading your posts, but geeze you're prickly. It's like walking on eggshells at times.

I hope you're not down or anything like that, I know that can make me a bit irritable. Just walk away from the computer for a few and try not to let posts trigger, as I think you can be prone to taking offence when none was intended. I've copped it from you myself a few times and have let it slide by.

Sunshine, rainbows and lollypops to you mate. I hope it's a fine Saturday wherever you may be :emoji_sunflower:
 

Nature's Fury

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Nov 1, 2019
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Man, you can be a cranky so and so Nature's Fury. You're obviously very knowledgeable meteorologically and I generally enjoy reading your posts, but geeze you're prickly. It's like walking on eggshells at times.

I hope you're not down or anything like that, I know that can make me a bit irritable. Just walk away from the computer for a few and try not to let posts trigger, as I think you can be prone to taking offence when none was intended. I've copped it from you myself a few times and have let it slide by.

Sunshine, rainbows and lollypops to you mate. I hope it's a fine Saturday wherever you may be :emoji_sunflower:

I think you've got the wrong person. I've not been involved in this conversation or any of the other debates on here.
 
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