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Southern hemisphere winter tactics 2021.

Discussion in 'Snow Talk' started by Sbooker, Dec 7, 2020.

  1. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm from Brisbane and missed out on skiing this past winter. Obviously I won't be skiing overseas in the next few months so I'm desperate to get on skis next SH winter.
    I would like to go to NZ for a couple of weeks in August and hit up the hills around Queenstown and Wanaka but to do that I will have to commit to airfares and lodging and importantly NOT commit to airfares and lodging at Jindy/Thredbo/Perisher etc.

    Am I best off playing it safe and booking for here in Australia because travel to NZ may still not be possible? Or do I roll the dice on NZ and hope for the best.
    In your opinion what chance are we of travelling to NZ in August?
     
  2. teleroo

    teleroo Waiting for winter... Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think you could assume any vaccine rollout would only be partially complete by August. Most likely will depend on whether Kiwis are ok with travel bubble with Oz then with that being the case. But hey, this opinion is worth what you paid for it eh?
     
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  3. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah. Just keen to get a collective opinion.
    Safest option is to forget about NZ and lock in Oz I guess.
     
    skiflat, qwill and Jasper Schwarz like this.
  4. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I think that if there even a chance that you want to ski in Australia next year you should book it ASAP. There are going to be a lot of people in the same boat, and it is going to get very full very quickly. Im very lucky with how my accomodation works so Im pretty guranteed at least one week, but if I wasnt in that boat, I would be making some plans sooner rather than later.

    1 thing is for certain. If we are going to have a good snow year, lets hope that it is next year, because every skiing family under the sun is gonna want a piece of action next year

    I personally like the sound of an Epic pass, week or 2 at Perisher in early July, and then a week in Victoria, with the intention of heading to the US/Japan in Jan/Feb 2022 for a ski then
     
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  5. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Noted on being busy. And I agree.
    I will say if you are thinking of skiing in the US in 2022 the Ikon Pass (Thredbo and Buller) gives access to better hills in the US than Epic does in my view. Even 2022 could be optimistic for travel to the US?
     
  6. jusch

    jusch First Runs

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    Long time lurker here (mostly for the cams & weather threads). Similar predicament to OP...thought I'd chip in and share some thoughts. Did get that one week of snow up in Hotham this year though...blessings are counted.

    Also have been very seriously considering spending SH2021 season in New Zealand - FWIW I personally feel that the chances are reasonable by August. My thoughts being:
    Optimal scenario - trans-Tasman bubble occurs around Mar-Apr. End Q1/2021 is what Joyce and Foran are now forecasting. But then again, we were supposed to have a bubble by now if you went by the headlines...
    Less optimal scenario - it is entirely possible the border might be 'open' outbound to NZ, but can't rule out some form of quarantine (whether MI & hotels or 'home' quarantine, etc.) might be still required by then into NZ. This doesn't seem likely, feels more like an all or nothing with the New Zealand side of things.
    Worst case scenario - borders totally shut still.

    The complete wildcard at this point is the vaccine. It's unlikely this will begin before Mar/Apr 2021 in Australia, but as teleroo mentioned, by August things might look quite different in terms of uptake - if partial. How partial? No way of knowing.

    In my mind, boils down to a few things:
    1) How long you're planning to stay in New Zealand if you were to go, and worst case scenario whether you would accept 2 weeks' MI hotel quarantine
    2) How you'd feel about chasing refunds and managing cancellations if the borders weren't open
    3) Whether you have accommodation locally in Oz and how soon you want plans finalised
    4) Por que no los dos? I would think there's nothing stopping you from mixing and matching parts of the season and staying flexible for either, unless you wanted seasonal accommodation only in one place. Hedge your bets both ways so you get snow somewhere at least. Though your main enemy here would be cost.

    But I definitely share the sentiment that local accommodation here in Oz will be snapped up very quickly - at least the better & more inexpensive choices.

    2022 should be looking much better for NH but exact locations still might still be highly selective. IATA doesn't think things will look "2019 normal" until after 2023...

    Hope that helps. Would be interested to hear how you plan out your 2021.
     
  7. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    As someone who has never skied overseas in their life, I am really looking forward to Park city and Telluride
    My lodge is as cheap as chips at Perisher, so Epic is a bit of a no brainer for me.

    That being said with the vaccine, I agree this is the wild card.
    Feel free to ignore this (and please dont take offense), are you likely to get it in an early wave.
    Immunocompromised, lung conditions, health care workers etc. Im thinking that I am likely to get it in 12 months, but some people arent so that changes plans too
     
  8. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I won’t get a vaccine early I wouldn’t think but rightly or wrongly I will bet there will be a way to ‘fast track’ getting the jab by paying privately for it. It will suit those that need one to travel.
    Btw you’ll love skiing overseas. Better terrain and better and more snow generally. The conifer and aspen lined runs are nice too.
     
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  9. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    With your Epic pass, you’ve gotta do Whistler at some point, Jasper. It is simply amazing (except when it rains, when it’s very familiar for those of us who ski at Perisher :p).

    Sorry, thread hijack. I’d say book NZ with caution as the vaccine may not be fully rolled out until mid-year at the earliest. 25 million or so people is a lot of shots ....
     
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  10. teleroo

    teleroo Waiting for winter... Ski Pass: Gold

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    And something on the radio along the lines of one vaccine needed 21 days between first and second doses, just to slow things down even more.
     
  11. Hermannator

    Hermannator One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Considering we are already letting Kiwis in and, we are 0 community transmission here in Aus, you'd be pretty stiff to be disallowed into NZ by August '21.

    But then again, someone could f$%k up hotel quarantine again and things could change pretty quickly...
     
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  12. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That’s my concern.
    Book flights accom and lift tickets in NZ then it is called off. Meanwhile Oz gets booked out.
     
  13. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The other spanner in the works is pass reservations for Australia. Almost certainly there will be a pass reservation system for Epic pass holders here, as happened in the first month of the season here this year, and currently is the case in North America. So there is the possibility that you could book accomodation here, get a season pass, and still not get on the hill on some days
     
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  14. Tom from Melbourne

    Tom from Melbourne One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think this year though season pass holders should get clear priority! (Which wasn't case for Falls and Hotham EPIC pass holders this year).

    I know it's not an Option for the OP, but I'd go further than stay in Aus, and recommend stay in state if possible.

    Never know when or where an outbreak could occur, but reducing the need to travel across even state boarders seems an easy way to reduce risk.
     
  15. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks for your view.
    So we can fill footy stadiums but have to restrict numbers on a ski hill?
     
  16. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is 8months away, so who knows, certainly not me. I don’t make the rules, or read the future.
     
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  17. Sage Oya

    Sage Oya Like the herb, cup ramen devotee Ski Pass: Gold

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    NZ for 2021 still seems like a pretty big dice roll to me, requires things to stay on track in two countries rather than just one. I'd be locking in domestically to give yourself the best chance of getting in a decent amount of skiing.

    Let's hope they sort out a better system for season pass holder reservations should that happen again LOL
     
  18. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’m hoping for a week in NZ this winter, if not I’m hoping Ikon allow split over 2 years as they did this year - so I can use it 2022 instead.

    I plan on booking Island Bend for a heap of weekends as soon as bookings open. At this stage hoping for at least a day a week all season.

    If you have to choose between Oz or NZ now, I’d go Oz. Can you wing it? There’s usually some accom options in NSW even if they’re not ideal.
     
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  19. Interruptedbyfireworks

    Interruptedbyfireworks One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'd also go Oz, as there is a chance you book NZ and then can't go because of restrictions/quarantine/whatever, and then you miss out completely for another season.

    The NSW resorts each had their own way of restricting numbers this season, none of them ideal, but IMO it's a better option than risking putting all your eggs in the NZ basket.
     
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  20. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of course. I appreciate that. The double standards are frustrating that's for sure.