Spencer's CK 2021

Chookfooter

Cranky Curmudgeon
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May 11, 2020
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The reason is more likely related to money. If they have really good data on how much snow, the state of the snow etc, they probably want to keep that commercial in confidence. You have to remember they see the snow sitting on the ground like dollar bills sitting there, waiting to be banked;)
Not quite, snow sitting on the ground is already banked, knowing how much is there ready for summer enables them to know how much they can let out of the dams now for generation. No point letting it all go now if there is nothing in the bank coming later. They are very happy to let Perisher use the water out of the aqueducts for snowmaking, more snow in the bank.
 
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Cadir

Early Days
Jul 22, 2021
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Also 37.7 today at 3 mile dam. Would have been more if they measured before it got wet on Monday but oh well.
 
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NightSky

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They have finally updated the total.

183.6cm

Screenshot_20210729-194146_Chrome.jpg
 

cold wombat

Twitter Contributer
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Jun 4, 2008
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Whats quite amusing is that whats really happening is the obvious progression- Remote sensing via satellite to measure snow depth and potential runoff/ snow melt is thus calculated . On ground obs could be interpolated but for forecasting snowmelt the satellite data is probably good enough for forecasting and planning flow volume management .
I suspect the remote sensing data is giving them a much more accurate model by far.
 

murrumbidgee63

Hard Yards
Sep 4, 2017
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Spencers creek was completely snowed up on Tuesday as far as the eye could see downstream towards Illawong/Guthega just a few icy patches on some of the larger pools!
 
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robbo mcs

A Local
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Sep 1, 2008
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It will be interesting to look at the long term trend line after this season. We had 3x seasons well over 200cm and above long term averages, last season was just below, this season with some luck would go above. Potential for 4/5 seasons over 200cm. The long term trend has been downwards, gradually over a long period. We might start to see some flattening of the trend.

Not making any comment on climate change, causes etc, just will be interesting to see. Then next year, when the crowds come back we might get an 1982 or 2006 to restore the long term trend LOL
 

robbo mcs

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The current situation is a good example of why spacing out the measurements introduces significant sampling errors, and messes with the integrity of the historical record.

It was last measured 28/7 at 184cm. The next week, 3-4/8 we had some good snowfalls, probably 30cm or so at Spencers elevatio, possibly more. However, it was not measured 5/7. Since then we have had a string of unusually warm days, up to 8.9C at Perisher AWS, likely to be followed by rain and maybe a little snow 11th into 12th, with snow loss. If they measure around 12th we will have missed the peak around 5/7, which could well have been the season high:(
 

SMSkier

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The current situation is a good example of why spacing out the measurements introduces significant sampling errors, and messes with the integrity of the historical record.

It was last measured 28/7 at 184cm. The next week, 3-4/8 we had some good snowfalls, probably 30cm or so at Spencers elevatio, possibly more. However, it was not measured 5/7. Since then we have had a string of unusually warm days, up to 8.9C at Perisher AWS, likely to be followed by rain and maybe a little snow 11th into 12th, with snow loss. If they measure around 12th we will have missed the peak around 5/7, which could well have been the season high:(
Agreed… I noted the Snowy Hydro vehicles and trailers this morning at the usual spot… would not be surprised if some new readings pop up.
 
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FourSquare04

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Sep 11, 2001
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Feels like the season has already reached a peak, already hitting mid 20's in Sydney in early August, has that early Spring feel in the air for sure
 

BlueHue

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Apr 17, 2003
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Right now it's got that 1995 or 2014 feel about it!
Climate drivers pointing to moisture. IMO won't stay dry and warm, inthin the precip will return later I August or septemebr. Will it be rain or snow though?

As small as it was snowfalk wise yesterday showed that their is plenty of potential for convection whem fronts pass.
 

Hermon

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Aug 24, 2008
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95 had the epic July followed by the epic meltdown during August where they lost a good 1m+ of base over the course of the month, was truly insane
That won't be repeated this year. Of note - early Sept 1995 had the most epic cold outbreak of the past 30 years. Snow fell 50km North of Bendigo and Mt Dandenong was covered in snow top to base. August 1996 is a closer parallel IMO - a lean August, but some big falls in September.
 
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FourSquare04

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That won't be repeated this year. Of note - early Sept 1995 had the most epic cold outbreak of the past 30 years. Snow fell 50km North of Bendigo and Mt Dandenong was covered in snow top to base. August 1996 is a closer parallel IMO - a lean August, but some big falls in September.

I vaguely remember that cold outbreak in '95 @Hermon and I think there may have also been a very good late season dump in 96, possible late September / early October too? I know October 2009 just after the season closed delivered an unusual up to 50cm dump in Jindabyne.

With the exception of 2020, the last 5-6 years have delivered some truly epic seasons with over 2m base depths. Kids won't know what hit them when they have a bad one, I know I saw some pretty grim seasons in the 90's and 00's (98 and 2006 are two that come to mind).
 

Hermon

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I vaguely remember that cold outbreak in '95 @Hermon and I think there may have also been a very good late season dump in 96, possible late September / early October too? I know October 2009 just after the season closed delivered an unusual up to 50cm dump in Jindabyne.

With the exception of 2020, the last 5-6 years have delivered some truly epic seasons with over 2m base depths. Kids won't know what hit them when they have a bad one, I know I saw some pretty grim seasons in the 90's and 00's (98 and 2006 are two that come to mind).
There were a few big falls in October 1996. Decent skiing on the Main Range well into November.
 
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Telemark Phat

Pass the butter
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Jun 21, 2008
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I vaguely remember that cold outbreak in '95 @Hermon and I think there may have also been a very good late season dump in 96, possible late September / early October too? I know October 2009 just after the season closed delivered an unusual up to 50cm dump in Jindabyne.

With the exception of 2020, the last 5-6 years have delivered some truly epic seasons with over 2m base depths. Kids won't know what hit them when they have a bad one, I know I saw some pretty grim seasons in the 90's and 00's (98 and 2006 are two that come to mind).
The last 5-6 seasons have had some good winters. None have been epic. You need 3m+ for an epic winter.
 

MattyHoll

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The last 5-6 seasons have had some good winters. None have been epic. You need 3m+ for an epic winter.
Records atm show it hasn't even cracked 2m. Still waiting for that decent August snow event though... But i'm not complaining, I've skied better snow this year than when I went to Japan in 2019. I've worked out this year, that if the snow is dry and falling at 1000m, its generally a good indicator of what its like on the hill. It might only take that one day for it to be an epic winter.
 

Telemark Phat

Pass the butter
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Records atm show it hasn't even cracked 2m. Still waiting for that decent August snow event though... But i'm not complaining, I've skied better snow this year than when I went to Japan in 2019. I've worked out this year, that if the snow is dry and falling at 1000m, its generally a good indicator of what its like on the hill. It might only take that one day for it to be an epic winter.
We havent had an epic winter for 20 years. I fear they are a victim of climate change and we'll never see one again.
 

MattyHoll

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We havent had an epic winter for 20 years. I fear they are a victim of climate change and we'll never see one again.
You're probably right, I'm just not sure snow pack is a true indicator of a great season. Well spaced out, quality snow falls imo are better than a few 100cm events. I have no idea what the years gone by were like? I can only go off the accumulation of snow readings and the stories that go with it. But i'd assume a close to 3m year would have a few more than average days :thumbs:
 
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rocketboy

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Sep 9, 2010
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Solid year for a wet one. Might top 2m yet. AAO is testing a possible 50+ cents of slop mid month. Should look great on the cams.
 
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BlueHue

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You're probably right, I'm just not sure snow pack is a true indicator of a great season. Well spaced out, quality snow falls imo are better than a few 100cm events. I have no idea what the years gone by were like? I can only go off the accumulation of snow readings and the stories that go with it. But i'd assume a close to 3m year would have a few more than average days :thumbs:
Its hard to go past 2000 and 2012, exactly what you say, regular falls of quality snow, little rain and nice weather in between. They still don't quite match up by the numbers compared to the epic seasons of yor but both of those seasons skied well almost continuously for close on 4 months.
 

FourSquare04

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The last 5-6 seasons have had some good winters. None have been epic. You need 3m+ for an epic winter.

I highly doubt we will ever see another 3m+ season considering we've only had a handful in the last 100 years, it's possible, but looking more and more unlikely with the gradual rising of temps over time.....
 

FourSquare04

A Local
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Its hard to go past 2000 and 2012, exactly what you say, regular falls of quality snow, little rain and nice weather in between. They still don't quite match up by the numbers compared to the epic seasons of yor but both of those seasons skied well almost continuously for close on 4 months.

This. IMO two of the best seasons I have been fortunate enough to enjoy first hand too. 2000 was absolutely incredible. I remember flying down Rollercoaster, perfectly groomed underneath with a foot of fluff on top! 2012 as you say - regular dumps of good quality snow, I remember blasting huge turns as one of the first down Kama at Blue Cow in mid August 2012, was one of THE best pow days of my life in Oz and I'll never forget those two experiences.
 

Principal Douglas

Big Fan
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Mar 21, 2002
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Low Spencer's Creek depth doesn't necessarily mean it was a bad season. 2005 was one of the most fun seasons I've had. Skied more that year than almost any other. 2002 was really solid too. 2017 had some really good skiing, I think, and the peak wasn't reached until Sept 20th
 
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