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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Majikthise, Jun 25, 2014.
August 28th reading is in, 154.4cm at Spencers Creek so meltage has been minimal in the last week despite the warming daytime temps.
With snow coming next week we may not yet have seen the peak for this season.
We may yet get a fairly traditional peak depth timing...
Where's Miffy when needed?
2m reached within the next 2 weeks IMO.
Dude, I'm still going for 3m.
Not going to guess until next weeks system has passed
Once we are on the otherside of these spring bonuses all we need to do is put @Gerg 's rate of spring ablation on the graph to see how longevity will hang around. My guess is @PlowKing could get a decent trip onto the main range on his return from Canada.
2m is unobtainable IMO. @Gerg looking good.
Tick. Next week won't do it, there's nothing showing the week after, and late September dumps are hens teeth. The snowpack is dense, so I expect 1 m to persist through to about the end of the month, making this one the longest seasons (time above 1 m) in recent times. That's despite the late start.
I'm surprised that this week's reading has gone down. Perisher are claiming 20cm+ from this weeks system.
I believe that the Spencers creek area faces south. Would be wind scoured and more snow up the road.
132.8 ... still tracking as 2011 revisited, figure it'll be <1m by 25/9. I think it's time to give @Gerg a virtual beer and for some folk to reconsider how they tore into him for daring to suggest we peaked in July. His calculated depth has be seen as a pretty good result... if he can pull this off over consecutive years @CarveMan may need to sponser him.
FTR on June 7th @Gerg blogged "My 2014 peak depth prediction falls from 170 cm to 168 cm, both ± 45 cm"
The Spag has nothing showing through to early October, so the season peak is in, IMO. If you’re still expecting this thing to turn around somehow, it may be fair to ask … starting when, exactly?
I think we would all benefit if" The frog" employed him. Hehehehee
Tree Mile creek 25cm
122.3 at Spencers
Still over 1m at Spencers as at 25th September - 105.2cm.
Deep Creek at zero though. That couple of hundred of metres of vertical is so critical.
Going off 2011, SC will be 0 by November. The main range will probably be still offering up worthwhile lines well into November.
Not as important as position relative to the main range. ie - 2200m spine 3km to the west of Spencers Creek.
Interesting point. Just been out Jagungal way. There's not much snow at ~1830 m thereabouts (in fact there's not much at 2000 m). Seems the west - east "rain shadow" depth gradient is every bit as strong in NSW as it is in Vic. I guess the Hydro would have detailed data.
Also the difference in north
73.8cm 2nd October.
Wow bigger drop than I was expecting..two weeks left in it without another fall. Two weeks ahead of 2011 as it is.
About the same as this time last year.
Have a look at this from this morning:
Two weeks from zero at Spencers and they maintain 100% cover ... extraordinary. (Stash mountains are nearly gone though...) Unfortunately, you're looking at the future of Australian skiing.
@Gerg you seem to be one of the more serious gurus when it comes to snow depths and some of the equipment used to measure it with. What does Snowy Hydro use at Spencers to make the calculations? I've seen lots of photos of strange looking contraptions that look like leftovers from NASA but can't comprehend how it could be used to do the job. Would love to find a picture of what they actually use.
There used to be a detailed description on the Thredbo site, which you can still read it at the web archive, here. I gather that the implement is a Mt Rose snow sampler, an old and obscure hand operated core sampler design from the US. They probe seven locations spaced 30 m apart and take the average. The cores are weighed to measure snowpack density.
Thanks Gerg. It must be a pretty reliable method of checking the depth if they're still using it 50 years later.
Picture a stick with uniform increments on it - like a staff gauge. Several of them in an area 50m x 50m. Read depth of each one and take an average. Nothing NASA about it.
The snow density is used to estimate water stored in the snow pack - nothing to do with depth.
Looking at comparison charts, 2002 and 2014 ended up being very similar for all 3 Snowyhydro sites. Remarkable.
Check out this year and 83 .spooky .
ok are their any climatic variables common to 2002, 1983 and 2014? @Gerg
If you look at the other end of the scale with a La Nina year, 1974 and 2011 is a good example Queensland had the disastrous floods. I'm sure there would be similar factors in action dictating good and bad snow seasons.
23.4cm.. one week to go I fear.
zip, zip and zippo.. it's all over at Spencers Creek.
Thanks for coming.