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Mega Thread Spencers Creek 2014

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Majikthise, Jun 25, 2014.

  1. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    Astro66 likes this.
  2. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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  3. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    August 28th reading is in, 154.4cm at Spencers Creek so meltage has been minimal in the last week despite the warming daytime temps.

    With snow coming next week we may not yet have seen the peak for this season.
     
  4. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We may yet get a fairly traditional peak depth timing...
     
  5. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Where's Miffy when needed?
     
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    2m reached within the next 2 weeks IMO.
     
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  7. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dude, I'm still going for 3m.

    ;)
     
  8. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    Not going to guess until next weeks system has passed
     
  9. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Septembergeddon?
     
  10. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Once we are on the otherside of these spring bonuses all we need to do is put @Gerg 's rate of spring ablation on the graph to see how longevity will hang around. My guess is @PlowKing could get a decent trip onto the main range on his return from Canada.
     
  11. SAL

    SAL One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    150.8cm
     
  12. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    2m is unobtainable IMO. @Gerg looking good.
     
  13. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Tick. Next week won't do it, there's nothing showing the week after, and late September dumps are hens teeth. The snowpack is dense, so I expect 1 m to persist through to about the end of the month, making this one the longest seasons (time above 1 m) in recent times. That's despite the late start.
     
  14. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm surprised that this week's reading has gone down. Perisher are claiming 20cm+ from this weeks system.
     
  15. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    I believe that the Spencers creek area faces south. Would be wind scoured and more snow up the road.
     
  16. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    132.8 ... still tracking as 2011 revisited, figure it'll be <1m by 25/9. I think it's time to give @Gerg a virtual beer and for some folk to reconsider how they tore into him for daring to suggest we peaked in July. His calculated depth has be seen as a pretty good result... if he can pull this off over consecutive years @CarveMan may need to sponser him. ;)
    FTR on June 7th @Gerg blogged "My 2014 peak depth prediction falls from 170 cm to 168 cm, both ± 45 cm"
    http://gergs.net/2014/06/season-2014-snow-depth-prediction-5/
     
    cin, Undies, zar and 3 others like this.
  17. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    The Spag has nothing showing through to early October, so the season peak is in, IMO. If you’re still expecting this thing to turn around somehow, it may be fair to ask … starting when, exactly?
     
  18. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we would all benefit if" The frog" employed him. Hehehehee
     
  19. Tonka

    Tonka Hard Yards

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    Tree Mile creek 25cm
     
  20. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    122.3 at Spencers
     
  21. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still over 1m at Spencers as at 25th September - 105.2cm.

    Deep Creek at zero though. That couple of hundred of metres of vertical is so critical.
     
  22. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going off 2011, SC will be 0 by November. The main range will probably be still offering up worthwhile lines well into November.
     
  23. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not as important as position relative to the main range. ie - 2200m spine 3km to the west of Spencers Creek.
     
  24. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Interesting point. Just been out Jagungal way. There's not much snow at ~1830 m thereabouts (in fact there's not much at 2000 m). Seems the west - east "rain shadow" depth gradient is every bit as strong in NSW as it is in Vic. I guess the Hydro would have detailed data.
     
  25. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also the difference in north
     
  26. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    73.8cm 2nd October.
     
  27. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow bigger drop than I was expecting..two weeks left in it without another fall. Two weeks ahead of 2011 as it is.
     
  28. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    About the same as this time last year.
     
  29. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Have a look at this from this morning:

    [​IMG]

    Two weeks from zero at Spencers and they maintain 100% cover ... extraordinary. (Stash mountains are nearly gone though...) Unfortunately, you're looking at the future of Australian skiing.
     
    #229 Gerg, Oct 3, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2014
  30. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Gerg you seem to be one of the more serious gurus when it comes to snow depths and some of the equipment used to measure it with. What does Snowy Hydro use at Spencers to make the calculations? I've seen lots of photos of strange looking contraptions that look like leftovers from NASA but can't comprehend how it could be used to do the job. Would love to find a picture of what they actually use.
     
  31. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    There used to be a detailed description on the Thredbo site, which you can still read it at the web archive, here. I gather that the implement is a Mt Rose snow sampler, an old and obscure hand operated core sampler design from the US. They probe seven locations spaced 30 m apart and take the average. The cores are weighed to measure snowpack density.
     
  32. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks Gerg. It must be a pretty reliable method of checking the depth if they're still using it 50 years later.
     
  33. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Picture a stick with uniform increments on it - like a staff gauge. Several of them in an area 50m x 50m. Read depth of each one and take an average. Nothing NASA about it.

    The snow density is used to estimate water stored in the snow pack - nothing to do with depth.
     
  34. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Looking at comparison charts, 2002 and 2014 ended up being very similar for all 3 Snowyhydro sites. Remarkable.
     
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  35. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    Check out this year and 83 .spooky .
     
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  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ok are their any climatic variables common to 2002, 1983 and 2014? @Gerg
     
  37. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you look at the other end of the scale with a La Nina year, 1974 and 2011 is a good example Queensland had the disastrous floods. I'm sure there would be similar factors in action dictating good and bad snow seasons.
     
  38. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    23.4cm.. one week to go I fear.
     
  39. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    15.4cm 16/10/14
     
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  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    zip, zip and zippo.. it's all over at Spencers Creek.
    Thanks for coming.