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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Lady Penelope, May 24, 2019.
Last year was allover the place, sometimes tuesdays, wednesdays or thursdays
I am going to add 96 if its done Tuesday 102 it Wed next week
65cm if they're lucky. Currently torrential with more rain to come before the cold hits.
I'll take your 65cm and add 100cm.
I lkie my 102, but I think I will go with 118. (if done Tuesday)
My 165cm assumes a Thursday reading after the next front.
I go by the top of high noon at thredbo on the cam.if the snow is halfway up towards that railing on the right....it's time.
Some pretty decent falls over the last week.
By my count:
Thredbo total reported 85cm odd
Perisher about 110cm
Charlotte Pass 120cm
I'm going for enough wintry mix at 1830m on Friday for now snow loss and with Charlottes closest to Spencer's I will take its 120cm. Allowing for settling/consolidation I will take a ratio of 0.6 making for increase of 72cm
Spencer's Creek prediction this week: 117cm.
If it's not around that mark it will higher allowing for snow Wednesday and a big blow in last night.
Do I get a prize?!
Best depth since 2014 for this date when it was 155 cm . And then it topped out only 14 cm higher. Gerg is only going for 150 +/- 44 cm this year.... W
The +ve IOD that's forming suggests Gerg might be correct.
2014 was a funny year. Cold and snowy from late-June through to early August. Then nothing....
122.3 cm is the official reading for Spencer’s Creek this week
Edit: @Ret-ro beat me to it!
Sorry My Lady!! It just came up on the feed.. from a mate.
I think Gerg may be buried.!!
Close, Its been done , but the dude forgot to load it tonight.. Up or down.. or will they redo it after the effort tonight..
I dont know.. say 128
I saw the snowy hydro team out today going to spencers creek, so we should have a reading soon
Perisher snow report is quoting 140cm, although snowy hydro has not been updated. I presume that is the new spencers reading, taken Wednesday, post tuesday nights snow
A lot later than I thought. Would include the 5-10 yesterday..back in a week.
Snowy hydro has updated their Spencer creek chart to officially 140cm. Still best start in season since 2014
So I think am I correct in saying then that the Snowy Mtns at least is pretty much tracking along an average year type scenario thus far. And in relative terms, the Snowies are doing better than the NZ South Island fields thus far?
Further top ups welcome of course....
Yep pretty average season whatever average means these days. Bit later to start and a bit less snow than we'd all like but decent enough.
Its a weird one as the area is really dry and on the main range still heaps of rocks were usually they are covered so not sure whats going on. Been very windy at times so maybe Spencers has been wind loaded affecting the depth readings.
Yeh my guess is even higher winds than normal this year means larger areas of wind scour with thin cover/rock showing etc but pretty good cover where it is blowing in. There has been a decent amount of snow in marginal temps too, meaning bigger variation in cover as altitude changes compared to the norm. Spencer's Ck, Deep Creek and Theee Mile Dam depths show this with Spencer's Ck ahead of last year but noticeably behind at both of the lower altitude snow depth sites.
127.2cm as of August 1st. Almost toe to toe with the same time last year. The race is on to keep up with 2018 which went from strength to strength during August.
Deep Creek and Three Mile Dam both a fair way below 2018 at this stage, showing up the more marginal temps in some of this years snow bearing systems so far.
So let’s go with 213 for next Tuesday
based on melt rate for last week - it woud be down to 115 by this Wednesday - if wet snow Wed - then status quo until main event. If 60 cents in main event - you get back to around 175cm on Thur 15th - and whatever else on top of 60cm from there.
Perisher updated to 125cm, expecting snowy hyrdro soon
Edit - 2cm melt only for the week, thats pretty remarkable lets crack 2m next reading!
After about 80cm of fresh and very little compaction between now and the next reading I'm guessing around 210cm on the ground. Pretty good for this early in August.
I doubt we will break the 2 metre mark.
I am going for 198cm
I reckon we will go with a disappointing 199.4cm next week
125.2cm at Spencers Creek on 7/8
46cm at Deep Creek on 7/8
0cm at Three Mile Dam on 6/8
Overall 2cm or less loss across the week at all stations, although there wasn't much to lose at Three Mile Dam.
Above average thats all that matters to me!
With Spencers Creek reading 125.2 last week. Thredbo already reporting 100+ for this storm, and also around 48hours still left to go. Are we all witnessing what could be the highest official weekly increase in Aussie history? Even the mega storm of 92 didn't crack a meter from 1 week to the next.
I believe the current system will be particularly favourable for the spencers location. So it’s not out of the question, especially if Hydro measure on monday before it has compacted down toomuch.
I'll go for 2.2 mt next week.
Largest weekly increases:
2014 - 88.3cm
2011 - 95cm
1996 - 109.5cm
1960 - 116.8cm
1956 - 132.8cm
No chance we will beat the record. After compaction the increase will most likely be less than 1 metre IMO.
Based upon the depth I am seeing in Perisher 1800-1900m, I think it is consistent with a Spencers depth of around 180cm. But we’ll see when they measure it It all depends on how much windblown has accumulated at the Spencers measurement site
There was a big increase in depth at 1800-1900m overnight, so now I think more like 200cm
211.5. Please confirm that’s correct @Lady Penelope before it consolidates .
I will keep an eagle eye on the Snowy Hydro figures . Will be at Perisher from next Sunday myself; if nothing else I will plunge my ski pole into the snow at Smiggins to assess snow depth!