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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Lady Penelope, May 24, 2019.
202.7cm today. more snow in this year..
Out by 20cm. Not a bad guesstimate!
2019 203cm [202.7 rounded ok!] Maybe some more to come......
3rd 2m year in a row = a very bad year next year
I predict we will drop below 2m next week, before increasing well above the week after. Not willing to put exact numbers on it.
Tripple 2's! Last time we had tripple 2m + was 1990 - 1992!
Let’s go for 3 plus.
The last triple we had saw 3m+ in 1992, the highest of the three years between 1990-1992 and also the most recent 3m+ year. We are ahead of 1992 atm, so I can't see why we can't beat it. In fact, I think our path to the top looks very similar to 1992 based on current future snowfalls.
Thats what we said for the last 2
I still remember 1992. But that was in the middle of a global cooling event triggering by Mt Pinatubo. And it took forever to warm up that Spring. We didn't get our first 20c+ day until mid-October, and our first 30c+ until December 10 that year!
Sun started going very quite several years ago. [Im not allowed to say that apparently - but here we are with 3 x 2m+ years]
I am starting to back the solar minimum theory to a extent, it's more a combination of things etc
Far too many winter heat records being broken for that to be a factor for ski seasons snow depths IMO.
And we have had several large volcanoes go off this year...
My kind of weather. Let’s do that again.
Intensification of the hydrological cycle perhaps. Are the seasons getting longer? Is there a trend to finishing later or earlier?
What was the NH thaw like?
Current future falls?
We’re a long way off sustaining a 1992-level peak, let alone extent.
Already Thredbo top station forecast tops are up to 6 degrees in the coming week.
It would be good though, I really enjoy Spring skiing.
Shorter at either end, peakier, more reliant on major individual events. Good if you can pick them though. A week ago it was very very bony at resort and on the main range.
I think the big factor recently is the change in Sea Ice extent around Antarctica since 2016. We had several decades of increasing Sea Ice Extent, which basically disappeared all of a sudden after 2016. There is some suggestion that this lack of Sea Ice results in a trend towards -ve AAO and thus stronger cold fronts over Southern Australia in winter. That's the theory....
Gerg and Ken Green at NPWS say otherwise. There is a weak correlation between more snowfall and more sunspots.
But IIRC none of them were of large enough stratospheric levels required to have effect on our snow.
This. Our seasons rely a lot more on major snowstorms, because of the effects of CC. The result is bigger snowstorms, but less of them.
But there’s no real physical explanation for this. The physics points the other direction, due to the albedo effect. It’s meant to make for blocking over the Antarctic, which forces a -AAO when there is a higher than normal ice cover.
No one has mentioned the overly large number of albino whales in the great australian bight, simple explanation thanks to Gato
This makes no sense to me - if the solar minimum theory is making it colder why is it not uniform? It can't just be a theory that is proved correct because of a single weather event.
Look at climate trends not single cold weather events for specific locations.
I reckon it has something to do with SSTs in the Great Australian Bight.
This year’s SSTs. Note the nice and cold GAB.
Also note the gradient between the warm temps in the Southern Indian Ocean and the cold ones in the Southern Ocean.
All taken around the same point.
Note that they are all pretty similar.
Now we can’t accept that the cold GAB makes for a good season every time.
2016 is probably best regarded as an average season for Spencer’s Creek.
Still a cold GAB, but the big difference to the last three years is the warm waters off to the NW of Australia. They brought us big NW feeds that brought rain to the lower resort levels (like most of Buller....)
So I personally like a winter with no warm tropical feeds and a -AAO and IO/SO gradient. A NW Tropical feed with a deep -AAO and big longwaves is the dream, but the inevitable reality is that a +IOD year with a cold GAB, IO/SO gradient and frequent longwaves and -AAO events tend to work the best in our current climate.
Wasn’t the one in PNG at 63,000 ft stratospheric?
Having booked a late trip, I’m totally down with 3m coming our way
I am looking forward to the numbers for deep creek and three mile dame from this latest front. Looked like better than usual amounts at lower levels than many recent fronts.
Anyways, anybody on these forums remember 1973? I just checked this out being my birth year and it looks worse in reality than 1982(the first year i went skiing)!!!
at 280ppm - sunspots or lack there of will make a difference but at e500ppm (ie including methane et al) it has no impact against the weight of other forcings.
NZ is having a mostly crap season - Chile is having a crap season and South Africa hasn't had a good season since the last solar grand minimum 300 years ago. We just got lucky with the hat trick of the decade.
But that said I'm completely agnostic on what next season will be like - statistically it should smash 2006 - but there is a hint of a climatic and geographic trend that might just put PV and TTS in the box seat for a couple more decades. All while the surrounding SE Aust slides into long term drought.
... meanwhile, Earth has never had this much carbon in the atmosphere with massive ice caps. so it's anyone's guess as to how this will all play out.
and if we are really going to have fun here - these were on eurekalert.org today
++ Icebergs delay Southern Hemisphere future warming
++ Arctic sea-ice loss has 'minimal influence' on severe cold winter weather, research shows
I read some research quite a few years ago that put forward an argument that lower sun spits had a cause and effect on the incursion of long wave troughs closer to the equator. Can't remember specifics but it was linked/caused by an impact on the stratosphere (a change in cooling/warming patyerms from memory) which flowed through to effect polar vortex and therefore long wave trough movement. No real change in temps overall, just more intense cold fronts. Fairly speculative though I think.
Current snow depths across Deep Creek and Three Mile Dam have 2019 now tracking ahead of both 2018 and 2017 at these sites and above any reading the past two years provided at Three Mile Dam. Based on forecasts for next week it seems reasonable that Deep Creek will also eclipse the peak 2017/2018 depths at Deep Creek by this time next week (110cm currently this year, 114cm peak in 2018 and 127cm peak in 2017).
Up until now I would have said based on my experience this season has not been in the same ball park as the last two due to more marginal systems and less snow at lower elevations, but looks like that is now being blown away now. Still, hard to compete with the consistency of 2018 overall across the entire season and across different areas/elevations.
"The natural snow depth at Spencers Creek was 202.7cm this week. This is the earliest date for a depth of two metres to be measured at Spencers Creek in 15 years.
It's also an increase of 77.5cm from last week and, impressively, the third weekly increase of more than 70cm so far this season. This is a new record for Spencers Creek. Prior to 2019, there had only ever been two weekly depth increases 70cm or more in any one season, with data available back to 1954."
That's pretty impressive and seems to support the notion we see as many if not more big storms now with the problem for snow cover being what happens in between ie fewer top ups and more warm and or wet. 2016 was a good example of that!
As you know Jelly , this my own personal feelings past few years.
( with out too much other hoo haa to confuse me !)
this combo has been the one that has really delivered , and without too much pre-frontal loss.
Lets go with 243 next week
Make it 235cm
triple 2 m seasons
202cm last week.Small top up, after compaction of 2cm, then a loss of 12cm from warming. New snow from this latest storm of (predicted) 35cm. Minus compaction. Add it all up and we find a depth of...212cm. Simples.
Probably a mount lofty dusting too high
Wow! Some optimism here! I’ll go for 225cm. Yet to be updated by Snowy Hydro ....
My observations are that we have had a very large increase in snow depth the last week, at 1800-1850m, which is the altitude of Spencers. I think we will easily beat last years 220cm, and come close to the 240cm peak of 2017. I would not be suprised to see a reading in excess of that. Deep creek and 3 mile dam will see a loss. It has been an interesting week where altitude is really important, and there has been a lot of wind. I think people will be surprised
Charlotte Pass reported 60cm from Sunday night to Tuesday morning plus seeing more snow than rain last night and today (going by reports off the hill) so going by that you might be right!
I predict we'll still see a small increase at Deep Creek on the back of Sunday night into Monday morning, the wet stuff has been pretty light going by BOM obs at Cabramurra with about 15mm above 0C.
On reflection, I think you are probably correct for deep creek, probably a small increase. Depends when they measure it though