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Observations Spencer’s Creek, Deep Creek Measurements 2019

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Lady Penelope, May 24, 2019.

  1. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    202.7cm today. more snow in this year..
     
  2. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Out by 20cm. Not a bad guesstimate!

    Over 2m.

    2017 241cm
    2018 225cm
    2019 203cm [202.7 rounded ok!] Maybe some more to come......

    Noice!
     
  3. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    3rd 2m year in a row = a very bad year next year

    I predict we will drop below 2m next week, before increasing well above the week after. Not willing to put exact numbers on it.
     
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  4. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Tripple 2's! Last time we had tripple 2m + was 1990 - 1992!
     
  5. skull

    skull One of Us

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    Let’s go for 3 plus.
     
  6. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    The last triple we had saw 3m+ in 1992, the highest of the three years between 1990-1992 and also the most recent 3m+ year. We are ahead of 1992 atm, so I can't see why we can't beat it. In fact, I think our path to the top looks very similar to 1992 based on current future snowfalls.
     
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  7. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thats what we said for the last 2 :p
     
  8. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I still remember 1992. But that was in the middle of a global cooling event triggering by Mt Pinatubo. And it took forever to warm up that Spring. We didn't get our first 20c+ day until mid-October, and our first 30c+ until December 10 that year!
     
  9. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sun started going very quite several years ago. [Im not allowed to say that apparently - but here we are with 3 x 2m+ years]
     
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  10. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am starting to back the solar minimum theory to a extent, it's more a combination of things etc
     
  11. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Far too many winter heat records being broken for that to be a factor for ski seasons snow depths IMO.
     
  12. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    And we have had several large volcanoes go off this year...
     
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  13. skull

    skull One of Us

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    My kind of weather. Let’s do that again.
     
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  14. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Intensification of the hydrological cycle perhaps. Are the seasons getting longer? Is there a trend to finishing later or earlier?
    What was the NH thaw like?
     
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  15. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Current future falls?

    We’re a long way off sustaining a 1992-level peak, let alone extent.

    Already Thredbo top station forecast tops are up to 6 degrees in the coming week.

    It would be good though, I really enjoy Spring skiing.
     
  16. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shorter at either end, peakier, more reliant on major individual events. Good if you can pick them though. A week ago it was very very bony at resort and on the main range.
     
  17. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    I think the big factor recently is the change in Sea Ice extent around Antarctica since 2016. We had several decades of increasing Sea Ice Extent, which basically disappeared all of a sudden after 2016. There is some suggestion that this lack of Sea Ice results in a trend towards -ve AAO and thus stronger cold fronts over Southern Australia in winter. That's the theory....
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gerg and Ken Green at NPWS say otherwise. There is a weak correlation between more snowfall and more sunspots.
    But IIRC none of them were of large enough stratospheric levels required to have effect on our snow.
    This. Our seasons rely a lot more on major snowstorms, because of the effects of CC. The result is bigger snowstorms, but less of them.
    But there’s no real physical explanation for this. The physics points the other direction, due to the albedo effect. It’s meant to make for blocking over the Antarctic, which forces a -AAO when there is a higher than normal ice cover.
     
  19. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    No one has mentioned the overly large number of albino whales in the great australian bight, simple explanation thanks to Gato
     
  20. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This makes no sense to me - if the solar minimum theory is making it colder why is it not uniform? It can't just be a theory that is proved correct because of a single weather event.

    Look at climate trends not single cold weather events for specific locations.
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon it has something to do with SSTs in the Great Australian Bight.

    This year’s SSTs. Note the nice and cold GAB.
    Also note the gradient between the warm temps in the Southern Indian Ocean and the cold ones in the Southern Ocean.
    All taken around the same point.

    2018.

    2017.

    Note that they are all pretty similar.

    Now we can’t accept that the cold GAB makes for a good season every time.

    2016 is probably best regarded as an average season for Spencer’s Creek.

    Still a cold GAB, but the big difference to the last three years is the warm waters off to the NW of Australia. They brought us big NW feeds that brought rain to the lower resort levels (like most of Buller....)

    So I personally like a winter with no warm tropical feeds and a -AAO and IO/SO gradient. A NW Tropical feed with a deep -AAO and big longwaves is the dream, but the inevitable reality is that a +IOD year with a cold GAB, IO/SO gradient and frequent longwaves and -AAO events tend to work the best in our current climate.
     
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  22. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Wasn’t the one in PNG at 63,000 ft stratospheric?
     
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  23. walrusballs

    walrusballs Hard Yards

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    Having booked a late trip, I’m totally down with 3m coming our way
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  24. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

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    I am looking forward to the numbers for deep creek and three mile dame from this latest front. Looked like better than usual amounts at lower levels than many recent fronts.
    Anyways, anybody on these forums remember 1973? I just checked this out being my birth year and it looks worse in reality than 1982(the first year i went skiing)!!!
     
  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    at 280ppm - sunspots or lack there of will make a difference but at e500ppm (ie including methane et al) it has no impact against the weight of other forcings.

    NZ is having a mostly crap season - Chile is having a crap season and South Africa hasn't had a good season since the last solar grand minimum 300 years ago. We just got lucky with the hat trick of the decade.

    But that said I'm completely agnostic on what next season will be like - statistically it should smash 2006 - but there is a hint of a climatic and geographic trend that might just put PV and TTS in the box seat for a couple more decades. All while the surrounding SE Aust slides into long term drought.

    ... meanwhile, Earth has never had this much carbon in the atmosphere with massive ice caps. so it's anyone's guess as to how this will all play out.

    and if we are really going to have fun here - these were on eurekalert.org today

    ++ Icebergs delay Southern Hemisphere future warming
    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/ifbs-ids081119.php

    ++ Arctic sea-ice loss has 'minimal influence' on severe cold winter weather, research shows
    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/uoe-asl080919.php
     
  26. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    I read some research quite a few years ago that put forward an argument that lower sun spits had a cause and effect on the incursion of long wave troughs closer to the equator. Can't remember specifics but it was linked/caused by an impact on the stratosphere (a change in cooling/warming patyerms from memory) which flowed through to effect polar vortex and therefore long wave trough movement. No real change in temps overall, just more intense cold fronts. Fairly speculative though I think.
     
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  27. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Current snow depths across Deep Creek and Three Mile Dam have 2019 now tracking ahead of both 2018 and 2017 at these sites and above any reading the past two years provided at Three Mile Dam. Based on forecasts for next week it seems reasonable that Deep Creek will also eclipse the peak 2017/2018 depths at Deep Creek by this time next week (110cm currently this year, 114cm peak in 2018 and 127cm peak in 2017).

    Up until now I would have said based on my experience this season has not been in the same ball park as the last two due to more marginal systems and less snow at lower elevations, but looks like that is now being blown away now. Still, hard to compete with the consistency of 2018 overall across the entire season and across different areas/elevations.
     
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  28. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/putting-last-weeks-alpine-snow-into-a-historical-context/530080

    "The natural snow depth at Spencers Creek was 202.7cm this week. This is the earliest date for a depth of two metres to be measured at Spencers Creek in 15 years.

    It's also an increase of 77.5cm from last week and, impressively, the third weekly increase of more than 70cm so far this season. This is a new record for Spencers Creek. Prior to 2019, there had only ever been two weekly depth increases 70cm or more in any one season, with data available back to 1954."
     
  29. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    That's pretty impressive and seems to support the notion we see as many if not more big storms now with the problem for snow cover being what happens in between ie fewer top ups and more warm and or wet. 2016 was a good example of that!
     
  30. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. agree.
    As you know Jelly , this my own personal feelings past few years.
    ( with out too much other hoo haa to confuse me !)
    this combo has been the one that has really delivered , and without too much pre-frontal loss.
     
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  31. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Lets go with 243 next week
     
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  32. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Make it 235cm
     
  33. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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  34. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    triple 2 m seasons :p
     
  36. Geronimo

    Geronimo Hard Yards

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    202cm last week.Small top up, after compaction of 2cm, then a loss of 12cm from warming. New snow from this latest storm of (predicted) 35cm. Minus compaction. Add it all up and we find a depth of...212cm. Simples.
     
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  37. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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  38. Outlooker

    Outlooker Addicted

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  39. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. whether

    whether Hard Yards

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  41. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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  42. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Probably a mount lofty dusting too high
     
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  43. Mitchell Pearce

    Mitchell Pearce One of Us

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  44. Snowy Joey

    Snowy Joey One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  45. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow! Some optimism here! I’ll go for 225cm. Yet to be updated by Snowy Hydro ....
     
  46. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  47. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    My observations are that we have had a very large increase in snow depth the last week, at 1800-1850m, which is the altitude of Spencers. I think we will easily beat last years 220cm, and come close to the 240cm peak of 2017. I would not be suprised to see a reading in excess of that. Deep creek and 3 mile dam will see a loss. It has been an interesting week where altitude is really important, and there has been a lot of wind. I think people will be surprised;)
     
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  48. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Charlotte Pass reported 60cm from Sunday night to Tuesday morning plus seeing more snow than rain last night and today (going by reports off the hill) so going by that you might be right!

    I predict we'll still see a small increase at Deep Creek on the back of Sunday night into Monday morning, the wet stuff has been pretty light going by BOM obs at Cabramurra with about 15mm above 0C.
     
  49. robsh

    robsh Hard Yards

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  50. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    On reflection, I think you are probably correct for deep creek, probably a small increase. Depends when they measure it though