Observations Spencer’s Creek, Deep Creek Measurements 2019

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Lady Penelope, May 24, 2019.

  1. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    I'm gonna go for 242cm for next week (whether the measure Monday or Thursday). Just enough to beat out 2017s peak depth.
     
  2. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    No update from Snowy Hydro yet, but Perisher are claiming 222cm snow depth. They seem to have a Snowy Hydro source ....
     
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  3. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    222 it is they get the reading always before the website updates

    Edit : that's pretty good , we will probably see around 250 next reading possibly 260, with jellybeans long range on his fancy new website we could see a really nice maintained snowpack into October!!
     
  4. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The hydro site has now updated, 222.3cm. Pretty reasonable for september and more to come:)
     
  5. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    going for 245cm this week, and maybe the peakl for the year?
     
  6. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    250cm for me this week. Here's hoping
     
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  7. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Let's try 252
     
  8. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  9. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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  10. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    233.3

    Wonder when they will measure this week. Last weeks was 3 September so Tuesday.
     
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  11. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    18 days back i made the call for a 235-240 peak depth and was deemed as an optimist. We might just get there yet ;)
     
  13. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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  14. Geronimo

    Geronimo Hard Yards

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    I figure 243cm will be pretty close. Anything over 240cm makes it the best year, in Spencer Creek depth terms, since 2000.
     
  15. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I'm going for 249cm
     
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  16. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    We should speculate on the day they measure.

    I guess Wednesday
     
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  17. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    If they measure today 255cm
    Wednesday 248cm
    Thursday 238cm
     
  18. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This one could be really interesting. The recent storm brought snow, but also strong winds. The wind direction seems unusual, and there are large drifts in places they don’t normally accumulate, and scour in areas. Also there is a lot a large sastrugi around, so in those areas you might get a 50cm difference in depth if you move the probe 10cm either side. The spencers reading will depend on how all of this has played out at the measuring site ... and I haven’t been there to look;)

    Bottom line, it could be anything, even a loss is conceivable. A reading anywhere in the range of 210 - 260 would be completely possible I thinko_O Snowy hydro will tell us soon enough:)
     
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  19. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    .......'Large variations (~ 50cm) in snow depth over small distances' at Spencer Ck.

    Doesn't this make a mockery of NSW resorts quoting This one site as 'their depth'?

    (especially as Mt P have saved up & bought a real snow stake!). < Gasp! >
     
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  20. Gototakahashi

    Gototakahashi Hard Yards

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    I’m saying 301cm.
     
  21. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    For clarity snowstake does not measure snow depth. It measures snow accumulation, which is a very different thing.
     
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  22. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Yes Good point Robbo - that would make for a pretty accurate estimate of 'real depth'.

    I notice the main Vic fields have only 3 official measuring points - this could lead to to some interesting local effects or perhaps even biases(?)
     
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  23. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    My understanding from what I've read on here is that Snowy Hydro take a number of readings and then use an average (or median?).

    This should reduce the impact of any outlier readings (high or low).
     
  24. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, 10 samples over a set area. They weigh the samples as well to get water density, which is not published AFAIK
     
  25. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jousting sticks !!
     
  26. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Err umm enlighten me on the point of difference between the two?
     
  27. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    I assume Robbo is getting at the fact that the snow stake is individual snowfalls, which compact and can be washed away, the other is the consolidated depth.

    Similar to how Thredbo quotes natural depth and total season snowfall

     
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  28. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Any news on the latest depth reading?!!
     
  29. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Nope!

    Agree with robbo mcs though, could be just about anything. 40cm odd of reported snowfall should make for 20-30cm of settled accumulation but last measurement 0f 222cm was Tuesday 3 Sept. It barely went below 0 until it started snowing of Friday feb 6 and then the second half of the weekends system had a significant southerly bent to the wind direction, meaning snow not accumulating in the usual loading zones. All this means IMO a lower reading than what some are expecting.
     
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  30. skull

    skull One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I’m expecting plus 4m. So will be ok with 3m
     
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  31. OlCol

    OlCol Hard Yards

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    I was there (Perisher) Monday and saw many area stripped by the ssw wind. My feeling is 2.32 m.
     
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  32. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us

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    Thredbo updated to 225...
     
  33. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowstake is an elevated platform which sits above ground. It measures the accumulation each day, and is cleared daily. It does not measure the base, ie what depth sitting on the ground. Snowstake is on a live cam, so you can watch it and see the snow accumulating during an event.

    Spencers creek does not measure accumulation at all, it measures the depth on the ground.

    It is entirely possible you could have 25cm fall during a week, yet the base depth could be unchanged, or go up or down.

    Some resorts (eg Vic) combine the two on one measuring device, and give a daily accumulation and the base depth. However, these are not on a live cam.
     
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  34. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    No worries thanks I hadnt seen the snowstake reference .
     
  35. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I went up past the measuring field today at Spencer’s. For anyone that’s unaware, it’s not a single location. Rather an area with set positions from where a number of measures are taken.

    Generally speaking, it’s not impacted too much by the winds that impact the ridgeline and there was not a lot of evidence of that this morning.

    That said, check out this pic from today..... about 500 metres South of the measuring area at a similar elevation.

     
  36. Ijay

    Ijay Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    A good pic, added to my 2019 collection.
     
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  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Is that a slide?!! If so, pretty big one!
     
  38. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still no update re Spencer’s Creek depth. Only 9 days since the last reading :whistle:
     
  39. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats going to throw everything out.
     
  40. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Last weeks reading appeared on Friday 6th on their Snowy Hydro website but the data point actually came from the 3rd of Sept so it's a bit of a lottery trying to guess the date! In past at this time of year I think they tend to increase the frequency of measurement, I guess due to more rapid changes in snow pack when the thaw starts to happen.
     
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  41. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    And it's in.

    225.7cm on Sept 12th. No peak depth!
     
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  42. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Whaaaaat that's a rort, it should have been measured days ago :mad:
     
  43. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    I'm not sure what scientific advantage they will gain from measuring 4 sunny spring days after the last snowfall.
    But they are doing their job, so they know what they need
     
  44. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's easy to judge - but I'm guessing they have to measure it when weather permits and on a consistent basis when possible.

    Its easy for us to judge that they "should have measured on a day when there was more fresh snow" however they're there to measure snow for future melt and water flow, yes? If that's their mission then it shouldn't matter when they measure...
     
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  45. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Maybe also logistics? Its a bit of a haul to get out to the site I'd imagine since you need to travel via skidoo to a spot not accessed by road or oversnow (although CP oversnow goes not too far off). To do daily or at least two to three times a week they'd pretty much need to have two employees (assuming they have some kind of remote worker does not do lone work type policy) hired specifically for the purpose of maintaining the Spencers Creek dataset, not to mention Three Mile Dam and Deep Creek and missed data points due to the frequent bad weather that might preclude outdoor work for safety reasons.

    It's the biggest weakness IMO in using Spencers Ck data for the resorts. The measurement itself is very robust and provides a consistent record over many years, but snow depth can vary in fairly large amount from week to week so it does nto always provide a good indication of cover on the day in the resorts.
     
  46. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Spencers Creek measurement is not a single point measurement..... difficult to find details but an extract from a scientific paper:

    "... It consists of seven measurement points arranged in a cruciform pattern and has been surveyed weekly throughout each snow season since 1954. Many of the past studies of the Australian snowpack (e.g., Budin, 1985;Davis, 2013;Duus, 1992;Green & Pickering, 2009;Nicholls, 2005;Pepler et al., 2015) have used measurements from the Spencers Creek snow course as a primary input due to the length and continuity of this record."
     
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  47. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's the same old argument but we can't expect a 'measurement' to give us a good indicator of all conditions. There's always going to be differences due to wind, topography, blah blah. Groomers probably do more to affect the condition of the base in the end anyway. THe spencers dataset is good becuase it's essentially independent and reliable. It's good for what it's good for, and gives an indication for everything else. For the real conditions, that's why the resort threads are so popular every year!
     
  48. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    To be fair, I did mention in my comment that it's their job, so they know what they need.

    They do do an amazing job and I assume it's all professional and thoroughly worked out.

    ...I'm just curious though. How do they guess how many litres of water melted from the end of the storm until measurement day?

    ie. Roughly 10cm at a certain density over so many square km etc.
     
  49. kylep

    kylep Cage rattler Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the stats that we see are just the tip of the iceberg ( :p )
    They would then combine that with dam inflows, outflows, prior years etc, to essentially understand how much water they can expect to come into the dams over the spring/summer to then know what they have available for hydro, what needs to be released to rivers etc etc
     
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  50. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Next reading 178cm.