Observations Spencer’s Creek, Deep Creek Measurements 2019

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Lady Penelope, May 24, 2019.

  1. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,198
    Likes Received:
    884
    Location:
    Sydney
    Deep Creek up from 84cm to 100cm, Three Mile Dam up from 3cm to 15cm so bigger increases than Spencers Ck.

    Maybe more wind (and being from south) in higher areas led to less snow deposition at Spencers Creek. I've often noticed increases at Spencers Creek are also more modest relative to snowfall amounts later in the season. I wonder if this is due to the much deeper snowpack causing snow layers below to continue consolidating under added weight, could be talking out my....... though.
     
    FourSquare04, Ret-ro and IAB like this.
  2. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    929
    Likes Received:
    741
    445 pft
     
  3. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,018
    Likes Received:
    14,738
    Pics taken today

    1. Near where the readings are taken....



    2. Spencer’s further along the road....


     
  4. Fozzie Bear

    Fozzie Bear One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,574
    Likes Received:
    5,134
    Location:
    In the woods
    Back of Guthries.... surprised to see that much snow still
     
    FourSquare04, Jonathan_P and SMSkier like this.
  5. Fandango

    Fandango Addicted

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    192
    Likes Received:
    111
    It's in - 206.3cm
     
  6. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    4,183
    Likes Received:
    2,028
    Location:
    vic
    Still quite a bit of snow. We'd love that amount down in Mexico! ⛷❄️
     
  7. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2006
    Messages:
    1,129
    Likes Received:
    2,081
    Location:
    Sydney
    sounds plausible. Also possible is that most of the moisture in this week's cold snap was further north, and Deep Creek and 3 mile are both a bit further north in KNP so they may have gotten more. Just a theory, also from where the sun...
     
  8. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

    Joined:
    May 12, 2014
    Messages:
    505
    Likes Received:
    970
    Location:
    Gosford
    182.7cm on todays read for Spencers Creek
     
  9. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    4,183
    Likes Received:
    2,028
    Location:
    vic
    Any thoughts whether upper Thredders or Mid PB are about the same?

    Just wondering?
     
  10. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,198
    Likes Received:
    884
    Location:
    Sydney
    I don't know if they are the same (that hypothesis would require testing with a statistically sound study ) but in terms of where cover is at compered to normal for this time of year, then yes above 1700m I would say they are both looking above average right now like Spencer's Creek is as well, based on first hand obs from skiing earlier in the week.

    If I had to make a call on the thaw, without more snow I think it will be a faster October thaw than normal, thanks to the lovely red dust layer rapidly baring it's teeth again after the top up Monday briefly/partially covered it.
     
  11. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    4,183
    Likes Received:
    2,028
    Location:
    vic
    Interesting with - 1.8m, even with a fast melt one would expect the cover to last 2-3 weeks?

    Assuming no big rain events?
     
  12. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,198
    Likes Received:
    884
    Location:
    Sydney
    Normally I'd say without big rain events you'd be looking at a slower than normal thaw but the red dust introduces an x factor to the mix that can accelerate thaw. How long cover lasts depends where you are talking. Main Range touring and you are looking well beyond 2-3 weeks. Resort skiing to Perisher's close on Oct 13th and you should be ok although of course terrain will become a lot more limited, heading towards the usual Front Valley/Goats Gully and links out to Mt P/Eyre.
     
  13. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,755
    Likes Received:
    9,245
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    The cover will last at perisher without any problems. However, the question is more how skiiable it is. Currently this week it has become too sticky to comfortably ski around lunchtime / early afternoons. Definitely early mornings are best. The last week of perishers season is daylight savings time, so effectively we get to start an hour earlier
     
  14. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,018
    Likes Received:
    14,738
    I’ll take a look tomorrow but just noting that Charlottes has reverted to using vehicles ion tyres as opposed to tracks to transport guests.

    However, I don’t know to what point in the road and whether or not they switch further up. They were certainly going past Mt P today.....

    One other little point of note......

    Staff and maybe guests now parking opposite the base of the quad.... first time since the road was closed.

    Going back 3 seasons you could park at Eyre before the resort closed.

    More to follow I guess...

    EDIT:.... here’s a pic taken today - the day after the above comments....it’s clear to Betts (can’t determine status at the Spencer’s Gate) and the CP vehicles are still running on tyres....



    Noted RMS maintenance vehicles on the road in the am. So clearing and maintenance activity much earlier than last year. That said, the signage etc at PV advising the road is closed remains in place at circa 3 pm today (Friday).
     
    #314 SMSkier, Sep 26, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2019
    FourSquare04 and rocketboy like this.
  15. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,755
    Likes Received:
    9,245
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    147cm today, the melt is progressing rapidly
     
    FourSquare04 and Undies like this.
  16. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    20,417
    Likes Received:
    13,206
    Location:
    Top drawer
    Still an amazing tally for October.

    Long live 2019.
     
  17. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,755
    Likes Received:
    9,245
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    Spencers reading today 89cm. Falling at a more rapid rate than 2018, but similar rate to 2017. Deep creek and 3 mile dam now 0cm
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,479
    Likes Received:
    25,994
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Quite possibly back up, over a metre by Thursday.
     
  19. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,755
    Likes Received:
    9,245
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    I went through spencers on my bike. There is not a lot of snow there now, the loss has been very rapid.
     
    FourSquare04 and Jonathan_P like this.
  20. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,294
    Likes Received:
    17,801
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    The reddish - brownish top cover didn't help either.
     
    FourSquare04 and Jonathan_P like this.
  21. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,647
    Likes Received:
    3,336
    Location:
    Gerroa
    I had fun revving up the lads at the Brewrey on Saturday arvo with my "forecast" of a 50-100 cent storm by the end of the first week of Nov. @SMSkier was frothing at the prospect of at least one Nov slide - albeit on freshies and a few patches of left over dusty corn... Weirdest snow pack I've ever seen the last few weeks. Dust to dust...
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,479
    Likes Received:
    25,994
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Personally, I think one could be considered a fool to write anything like that off just yet. But the outlook doesn’t look overly optimistic yet.
     
    FourSquare04 and Majikthise like this.
  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,647
    Likes Received:
    3,336
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Would seem to depend on what the AAO does - the dip looks to be pretty hard wired into the forecast. Moreover, given the way this winter has played out - it would seem to be statistically a high probability that another large cold precip event occurs in next few weeks.
     
  24. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,018
    Likes Received:
    14,738
    Mate..... your confusing excitement with bewilderment.:rolleyes:...
     
  25. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    569
    Likes Received:
    783
    Location:
    Redfern
    Then there is this for Perisher. Thoughts of probability?
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    19,479
    Likes Received:
    25,994
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    A lot of that will include overnight rainfall.

    15-20cm is likely on the MR (and Perisher tomorrow) IMO.
    #lovesanorwester
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  27. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,755
    Likes Received:
    9,245
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    Todays reading 53cm. Going fast
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  28. maverik

    maverik Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2003
    Messages:
    131
    Likes Received:
    74
    Location:
    Mona Vale, NSW
    53.9cm it is. Angling back to the 2018 line!!....mmmmmgraphs
     
  29. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2014
    Messages:
    4,267
    Likes Received:
    11,257
    Location:
    Canberra
    :eek:
     
  30. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,755
    Likes Received:
    9,245
    Location:
    Kenthurst / Jindabyne
    35.9cm today :(
     
  31. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2016
    Messages:
    2,018
    Likes Received:
    14,738
    Here’s a pic taken yesterday.......it’s up just above the sample area....I was still able to skin up to the top at circa 1930 metres all on snow.

     
    IAB, DiscoStuAU, FourSquare04 and 2 others like this.
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,077
    Likes Received:
    3,481
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Another dust storm forecast to be coming today, it will disappear even faster after the next couple days
     
  33. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2015
    Messages:
    258
    Likes Received:
    236
    No measurement for 2 weeks.

    I guess 5.7cm

    Or 12.1cm if they measure after the next snowfall
     
  34. teleroo

    teleroo still looking for Thredbo in the Park Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2019
    Messages:
    831
    Likes Received:
    1,756
    Location:
    Illawarra
    So we've had three years in a row of 200+ cm observed snow depths at Spencers Creek (first time in roughly 30 yrs). This got the old Teleroo data-crunching brain cranking over and thinking about the perennial question of whether there is more or less snow than the good old days. So I dug out the Spencers Creek snow depth (annual peak) data back to 1954, fitted a linear trend 1954 to 2019. Slope coefficient was negative :( as expected. Just started making up fake 220 cm values for the next few years to see how many years of "good" snow we needed to bring the linear trend back to zero. The answer is a lot. So for the Telejoeys, it don't snow like it used to. More specifically, it is the really really big snow years of the 1950s and 1960s (300 + cm) that are not occurring in recent decades.

    But it got me thinking a bit more about long term climate trends. I know from 1950s onwards the south eastern Australian climate switched to a wet phase, which then petered out in the 1990s and for maybe the last 20 years we've been in a different, drier, moisture regime. I think we are seeing this in the snow depth data, with the big 300+cm snow years not seen for a long time. Without the moisture the big snow years will never happen and there has been less moisture last 20+ years. So I was basically happy to write off the 1950-1970(80s??) period as a bygone climate state. The stuff of legends of the building the Snowy Scheme era.

    So, if we accept we are in a different climate regime at the moment, what of more recent times? To think about this I calculated the linear regression slope coefficient back in time from 2019 (last year shown in lower graph is 2016). So a value for 1990 is the linear trend slope coefficient 1990 to 2019 etc. So yep, when ever you look back beyond the 1990s there is less snow than there used to be. But beyond 1992, there is actually a consistent positive trend of a few millimeters per year (wiggles around a little depending on start year). Bugger all really and I haven't been bothered to calculate confidence intervals around the slope coefficient (would probably encompass a slope of 0 ie. no trend I reckon for most years post 1992).

    So in short, if you've been skiing since about 1992, there is probably no noticeable change in Spencers Creek peak snow depth, or if anything a minor positive trend. But the last three years have a big role to play in this. Fingers crossed we get a few more like them.

     
    Bloke, D_Dog, POW_hungry and 4 others like this.
  35. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,761
    Likes Received:
    4,400
    Location:
    Melbourne City, VIC
    I looked back at the historical data last year at the end of season for all elevations.

    One of the things that struck me (and this is anecdotal as I haven't been bothered to look at it in depth) - our most recent seasons are punctuated by big dumps and long periods of nothing. It's clear to see lower elevations are impacted more significantly than higher - which sort of makes sense to me in that, if there is more moisture available and the temperature is marginal then it will fall at high elevations but rain at lower elevated resorts.

    There's also a clear trend for when the season peaks at each elevation, lower elevations appear to peak earlier in the season whereas high elevations peak later in the season. I'd love to spend a lot more time analysing the data and I wish it was available for all resorts to give a much larger picture of the Aussie Alps. But alas, it either doesn't exists or I can't find it & I don't have as much time to sit and ponder these things :)

    Peak snow depths:






    Peak snow depths by month & elevation:





     
    D_Dog and Claude Cat like this.