Observations Spencers Creek Depth 2015

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 20, 2015.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  2. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just for grins - I'll go first - 165cm Thur July 30.
     
  3. HappyGirl

    HappyGirl One of Us

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    shits and giggles: 303cm by 5th August.
     
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  4. sbm

    sbm One of Us

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    Voice of pessimism. The southern ocean can go ahead and prove me wrong.

    110cm. Peak depth before the second half of August.
     
  5. DPS Driver

    DPS Driver One of Us

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    I don't believe the southern ocean is going to play ball this year.

    150 season peak.
     
  6. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    second week of august 165cm, two reasonable falls, lots of little one's cold nights and SFA ablation till the winds hit.
     
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  7. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    159cm 1st week of August peak.
     
  8. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm not feeling it either DPS
     
  9. benchives

    benchives Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    peak last week of july
     
  10. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    ever the optimist, 251cm Sept 3rd.
     
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  11. firstlight

    firstlight Addicted

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  12. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    13 august 196cm
     
  13. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I'm going for 238cm, August 19th
     
  14. incogski

    incogski One of Us

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    182 first week of august
     
  15. Cubed

    Cubed Hard Yards

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    June 3 reading was: 13.1cm
    that was after 2 readings of 0.0cm on May 21 and 28
    Interesting, Thredbo and Perisher are reporting 20cm depth on opening (June 5), obviously taking into account snowmaking contributions, which i thought they weren't doing anymore.
     
  16. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feel free to burn in the hell of your ckoice asap.

    I'm going for 3.5 by late August.
     
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  17. tot

    tot Hard Yards

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    196 on 10th August!
     
  18. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Seriously thin -- shows how little snow is needed for a decent slide at this time of year. Fragile though ... things need to stay cold.
     
  19. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    230-240 cms.up high perisher and thredbo.late august
    ..
     
  20. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll go out on a limb and say 16.3cm, May 14th.
     
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  21. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    ROFL
     
  22. HappyGirl

    HappyGirl One of Us

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  23. wangster

    wangster A Local

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    101cm 23rd July :crap:
     
  24. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Them was the days. (Nice colours ... Kodachrome?)
     
  25. agentBM

    agentBM Part of the Furniture

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    I was there yesterday morning right near the locked gates at Spencers. Usual mostly frozen over creek and skiable brushy cover for the cross country folk I saw. Some great light crystals....have pics but no PC at present....until tomorrow night. Will post then just for the view....
     
  26. cloudbase

    cloudbase Hard Yards

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    It's gonna be 2006 all over again..
     
  27. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    Called it.
     
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  28. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Official Spencers depth 18th June is 0.0 cm. Measured this morning before the snow started this evening.....W
     
  29. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Damn, I owe Gerg $5.
     
  30. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    If that's in Thredbo dollars then Gerg's laughing!
     
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  31. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    2015 is putting 1982 and 2006 to shame lack of depth wise. 06 had 27 cm by now and 82 was on 21 cm. This time last year a big dump increased depth from 14 to 102 cm so on this date we had about 50 cm. Alas this weeks system peaked over Perth and is slip sliding away. Could be zero again on Thurs 25th...W
     
  32. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It may be 0cm at the moment but don't forget we've had two decent snow systems so far this year. Its not like we haven't had any snow - just none sticking around.
     
  33. snowduck

    snowduck One of Us

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    Pity it no longer exists:cry:
     
  34. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can I up my estimation to 3.6 please? When this season hits it will be all at once. Still late August.
     
  35. HappyGirl

    HappyGirl One of Us

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    Is that centimetres or metres?
     
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  36. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    130cm in mid-August.
     
  37. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    millimetres - I blame Tony Abbott :(;)
     
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  38. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Yep. Decent chance of 2 July as well: http://gergs.net/2015/06/first-ever-july-zero/

    (How close did they come to building that Spencers Creek dam Warrie? I seem to recall seeing a design for one on the upper Snowy too, just down below Charlotte Pass.)
     
  39. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    With a big fat blocking high now heading our way, could we be looking at a mid-July 0cm event?

    Ouchies.
     
  40. Matt.D

    Matt.D Hard Yards

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    Hope I'm wrong , 75cm Aug 10th
     
  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    better than zero
     
  42. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Just for the record Spencers depth is zero on June 25th. Gerg's done all the hard work sifting thru data to find that when 90% of the forum were just molecules in the Amazon - July 1957 - the depth was also zero on Wed 3rd. Link http://gergs.net/2015/06/first-ever-july-zero/
    Were there no measurements done in April, May and June of that year? There's no Thredbo BoM site back then nor anywhere else close by and relevant to check for rainfall and temps to guestimate snowfall. Plenty of years have autumnal falls eg 2013 which melted away.
    As for measured snowfall, as recently as 2010 there was a debate about a zero reading between the July 8th value of 24 cm and 45 cm on the 15th. Rain had washed it all away on the evening of the 14th but it started snowing after midnight on the Thursday morning. Anyway, that's the past, season 2015 or lack thereof is the now.... W
     
  43. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    Kiandra weather station was running in 1957. June 1957 had an average maximum of 8.9C, well above the long term average max of 5.4C for June. There was precip later in the month but with maximums temps well above freezing. Based on this the zero readings in June 1957 seem legitimate.
     
  44. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Guessing early season snow is of little interest to the Hydro. These days they seem to try to get it because they know folks are interested. In the past they appear to have measured when the whim took them; but often not. Manual snow depth/density measurement is expensive. Crew of two for half a day, 4WD, snowmobile ... maybe $2k per data point.

    There is actual Spencers Creek precip data for 1957; presumably SMA ran a station there (from here):

    [​IMG]

    A very wet June by the looks. There is also data at Guthega Power Station.

    Previous work with the Spencers/Charlotte Pass precip data suggests quality is not high (in winter at least), so take care. There doesn't seem to be a nearby temperature record. You could maybe get temps from one of the reanalyses, e.g. NCEP/NCAR: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html, or look at http://reanalyses.org/. Not trivial to extract though.

    (Thanks for the heads up on 2010. Remembered the conversation; forgotten the details.)
     
    #44 Gerg, Jun 26, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2015
  45. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Interesting that the precip data has nothing in the gauge at 9:00am on Saturday the 6th. Suggests snow didn't start until later Saturday, despite the southerly fetch and low shown on the (?) 00z reanalysis I posted. Still, there was clearly snow on the ground "by the end of the first week of July".
     
  46. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Tks ... 1957 Kiandra minimum temps. Late June very warm; temps plunge first week of July:

    [​IMG]
     
  47. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Thanks G and T, that's convincing enough proof for 1957. Now we can watch and wait another 6 days for the reading on the 2nd. That band of high pressure seems locked in on the BoM 4 day chart. WZ has nil snow till Friday 3rd but BoM has 40% chance at Thredbo on Wed 1st. Time will tell...W
     
  48. Frimbo

    Frimbo First Runs

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    As far as I know it was the moraine deposits that messed up the geology and meant there was nowhere to put a dam wall. There was an awful lot of drilling trying to find solid bedrock but not enough. Have never heard of one on the upper Snowy, there are a few good spots if you're a dam builder.
     
  49. Gerg

    Gerg One of Us

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    Tks. I think it was on an old map like the one in Warrie's a'tar. Probably my memory is faulty; most likely it's just the one he has. I assume that included an aqueduct through Charlotte Pass to an intake weir on the upper Snowy.

    I'm very glad they didn't build it. The Snowy Scheme might have been a reasonable-enough project in toto, but it did huge environmental of damage, some of the more extreme examples at likely seriously dubious benefit-cost ratios. Political grandstanding and boondoggling are not new phenomena, nor is engineering hubris*.

    (* Err, Hadrian? ... Disclaimer: I used to design large dams for a living.)
     
  50. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    There's a sniff of a snowfall on Thurs on the 120 hr Access G and incredibly a tropical cyclone east of PNG!!! Then there's GFS at 192 hrs with snow to sea level below Cape Otway. If only..... W