Observations Spencers Creek Depth 2015

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 20, 2015.

  1. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agreed.
     
  2. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nonsense.
     
  3. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is in 135cm
    I reckon there is a slim chance it could be bettered next week, figure it could be peak though.
    Edit?: make it a 50/50 next week is so all over the place, my gut read of what the models are saying gives me no confidence at SC altitude, >1900 and it could be a healthy top up, Below that, Yikes, could be anything holding 135 will be a good result.imo..
     
    #203 Majikthise, Aug 20, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2015
  4. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    ^ you were right! 4cents more! New peak!
     
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  5. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last bets at 150cm maybe?:thumbs:
     
  6. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  9. Nowada

    Nowada Addicted

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    Awesome pic's.
    Not much thaw at the moment and snow pack is fairly solid, my tuppence is we will see Spencers break 1.5m this Thursday. I think 1st to 2nd week of September will produce, so peak will be around mid September and about 1.65m IMO. Expectation lowering from my initial 2.75m prediction.
     
  10. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bravo! 150cm - a bold call indeed given the predictions for next week. I will be skiing at Perisher and relying upon your confidence that we will be receiving copious amounts of the white stuff rather than the other ....
     
  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unless we get a massive storm - 135 has to be peak 2015. The damage from last 2 days and with little to come this week surely puts the odds of a higher number at lotto levels. Charlotte Pass should start selling a cheap BC ticket - oversnow and a lift up the Chair.
     
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  12. cold wombat

    cold wombat Twitter Contributer Social Media Mod Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think I need to dial this back a bit. 3.1 by early September.
     
  13. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    After reading the report in the bc chatter of 50cm lost at 1800m , I reckon even with the bullish predictions for next week the peak could well have been and gone.
     
  14. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would have been good to get a reading late Sunday or Early Monday and then again later this week to really show how the snow pack goes up and down. It could very well show a stable number once all this new snow is added in.
    This is why the stream flow data is so important in fully mapping the annual watershed output. A melting snow pack in mid-winter only gives part of the picture.

    I understand that in years past the SC readings would have modeled well with the final snow pack melt measurements - but in a warmer climate with an oscillating snow pack - it would surely have to become a less reliable indicator - unless it already is a hybrid algorithm that takes into account additional variables such as stream flow data.
     
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  15. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is no way the coming reading at SC will be bigger than the most recent one.

    Three Mile will be zero, for the rest of the season, unless dusting comes on the day of a reading.

    A zero reading at Deep Creek for the rest of the season seems likely as well, if not this week coming then the one after.

    Would dearly love to be wrong, but.... 'Winter is Going'.
     
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  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit wrong bro?
     
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  17. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like I said happy to be wrong but.... We lost a lot over the last week. Might be great for the MR but the snow measuring sites will struggle from now in I reckon. They won't record a 30cm increase, I reckon.
     
  18. dayzoff

    dayzoff One of Us

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    Yep, Winter is Going and BRING ON THE SPRING....! Something silly was brewing with the mad changing maps and charts bout four or five days back. Looks like more follow up snow next week and Belinda the stray cat still has some claws left yet.
    IMO we are now looking alot like a 2003 season, late start, then consistent falls then a snowy September. I'm still dreaming of a 1992 finish though and yes the backcountry is going to be good this Spring....... :woohoo::woohoo::yum::cheers:
     
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  19. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its going to be a short spring on the Main Range. We want a good total 170+ with the thaw starting in the second week of sept at Spencers Ck for a good spring.
     
  20. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    You and your bloody realism.

    Sigh.
     
  21. dayzoff

    dayzoff One of Us

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    170cm+ is now a real possibility on Thursday week and a few days after that its the 2nd week of September!
     
  22. dayzoff

    dayzoff One of Us

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    & a good spring in my book is getting out there till about the 20th October. Too much gardening and surfing to do after that.....
     
  23. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Telemark Phat wants some good skiing to get back to after his South american interski soujourn.
     
  24. Telemark Phat

    Telemark Phat Pass the butter Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh Yes!
     
  25. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    I predict the Spencer Creek reading will be 181cm tomorrow.
    It has been too cold to have lost much base over the weekend and too cold in the lead up. It struggled to get above 7 degrees and there was only approx 11mm of rain.
    I've observed 50mm rain in past years with only 5cm loss in some cases.

    My current prediction for season peak depth is 213cm on September 4th
     
    #225 Adelaidometer, Aug 26, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2015
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  26. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    Im guessing 155
     
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  27. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Man, I'd love you to be correct.
     
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  28. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I estimate there was 25cm or so snow loss since the last reading. Due to a combination of really warm days and rain. Perisher have claimed 45cm, which seems reasonable. So that would equate to 20cm gain, or 155cm.

    It depends on so many factors though, especially the wind and how that has affected accumulation at spencers
     
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  29. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowfall totals pretty rarely equate to SC accumulations.
     
  30. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've been following the weather fairly closely this week. So I might have a crack. Having viewed the losses on the weekend.

    I'm thinking, down 20, but up 50. With natural settling, 159 cm.
     
  31. Bloke

    Bloke One of Us

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    Oi! Get ur own number! :D
     
  32. Miffy

    Miffy Addicted

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    149 - my guess
     
  33. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll have a punt at 168cm.
     
  34. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    OK, 154 ;)
     
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  35. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    I'll downgrade my prediction for tomorrow's reading to 176cm. It looks like it won't snow tonight and I reckon they will get the measurements in tomorrow before it starts snowing again.
     
  36. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  39. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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  40. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    @climberman 's call for Three Mile Dam was spot on - 0, Deep Creek has gone DOWN to 43.2cm and Spencer's Creek is yet to appear.
     
  41. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good that DC still has snow.
     
  42. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher are claiming 145cm depth today
     
  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is the figure 145cm from the 26th.
    @Gerg 's call is still in with a chance.
     
  44. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You keep posting this and I have searched thread
    Was it a peak height call, or a peak date call?
    thanks
     
  45. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Peak height with a error band of +/- 44 cm. So he does have a bit of fat to play with..check out his Web page for his methodology
     
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  46. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And that range would cover a majority of seasons making it a good safe prediction for any year.
     
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  48. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    The nature of statistical analysis
     
  49. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    I've learned that if I don't take back country observations serious enough, I will do quite badly in my predictions. Sorry guys.

    How is this Thursday's depth looking?
     
  50. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    125-135 is my guess