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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, May 20, 2015.
It is in 135cm
I reckon there is a slim chance it could be bettered next week, figure it could be peak though.
Edit?: make it a 50/50 next week is so all over the place, my gut read of what the models are saying gives me no confidence at SC altitude, >1900 and it could be a healthy top up, Below that, Yikes, could be anything holding 135 will be a good result.imo..
^ you were right! 4cents more! New peak!
Last bets at 150cm maybe?
Not much thaw at the moment and snow pack is fairly solid, my tuppence is we will see Spencers break 1.5m this Thursday. I think 1st to 2nd week of September will produce, so peak will be around mid September and about 1.65m IMO. Expectation lowering from my initial 2.75m prediction.
Bravo! 150cm - a bold call indeed given the predictions for next week. I will be skiing at Perisher and relying upon your confidence that we will be receiving copious amounts of the white stuff rather than the other ....
Unless we get a massive storm - 135 has to be peak 2015. The damage from last 2 days and with little to come this week surely puts the odds of a higher number at lotto levels. Charlotte Pass should start selling a cheap BC ticket - oversnow and a lift up the Chair.
I think I need to dial this back a bit. 3.1 by early September.
After reading the report in the bc chatter of 50cm lost at 1800m , I reckon even with the bullish predictions for next week the peak could well have been and gone.
Would have been good to get a reading late Sunday or Early Monday and then again later this week to really show how the snow pack goes up and down. It could very well show a stable number once all this new snow is added in.
This is why the stream flow data is so important in fully mapping the annual watershed output. A melting snow pack in mid-winter only gives part of the picture.
I understand that in years past the SC readings would have modeled well with the final snow pack melt measurements - but in a warmer climate with an oscillating snow pack - it would surely have to become a less reliable indicator - unless it already is a hybrid algorithm that takes into account additional variables such as stream flow data.
There is no way the coming reading at SC will be bigger than the most recent one.
Three Mile will be zero, for the rest of the season, unless dusting comes on the day of a reading.
A zero reading at Deep Creek for the rest of the season seems likely as well, if not this week coming then the one after.
Would dearly love to be wrong, but.... 'Winter is Going'.
Bit wrong bro?
Like I said happy to be wrong but.... We lost a lot over the last week. Might be great for the MR but the snow measuring sites will struggle from now in I reckon. They won't record a 30cm increase, I reckon.
Yep, Winter is Going and BRING ON THE SPRING....! Something silly was brewing with the mad changing maps and charts bout four or five days back. Looks like more follow up snow next week and Belinda the stray cat still has some claws left yet.
IMO we are now looking alot like a 2003 season, late start, then consistent falls then a snowy September. I'm still dreaming of a 1992 finish though and yes the backcountry is going to be good this Spring.......
Its going to be a short spring on the Main Range. We want a good total 170+ with the thaw starting in the second week of sept at Spencers Ck for a good spring.
You and your bloody realism.
170cm+ is now a real possibility on Thursday week and a few days after that its the 2nd week of September!
& a good spring in my book is getting out there till about the 20th October. Too much gardening and surfing to do after that.....
@Telemark Phat wants some good skiing to get back to after his South american interski soujourn.
I predict the Spencer Creek reading will be 181cm tomorrow.
It has been too cold to have lost much base over the weekend and too cold in the lead up. It struggled to get above 7 degrees and there was only approx 11mm of rain.
I've observed 50mm rain in past years with only 5cm loss in some cases.
My current prediction for season peak depth is 213cm on September 4th
Im guessing 155
Man, I'd love you to be correct.
I estimate there was 25cm or so snow loss since the last reading. Due to a combination of really warm days and rain. Perisher have claimed 45cm, which seems reasonable. So that would equate to 20cm gain, or 155cm.
It depends on so many factors though, especially the wind and how that has affected accumulation at spencers
Snowfall totals pretty rarely equate to SC accumulations.
I've been following the weather fairly closely this week. So I might have a crack. Having viewed the losses on the weekend.
I'm thinking, down 20, but up 50. With natural settling, 159 cm.
Oi! Get ur own number!
149 - my guess
I'll have a punt at 168cm.
I'll downgrade my prediction for tomorrow's reading to 176cm. It looks like it won't snow tonight and I reckon they will get the measurements in tomorrow before it starts snowing again.
@climberman 's call for Three Mile Dam was spot on - 0, Deep Creek has gone DOWN to 43.2cm and Spencer's Creek is yet to appear.
Good that DC still has snow.
Perisher are claiming 145cm depth today
That is the figure 145cm from the 26th.
@Gerg 's call is still in with a chance.
You keep posting this and I have searched thread
Was it a peak height call, or a peak date call?
Peak height with a error band of +/- 44 cm. So he does have a bit of fat to play with..check out his Web page for his methodology
And that range would cover a majority of seasons making it a good safe prediction for any year.
The nature of statistical analysis
I've learned that if I don't take back country observations serious enough, I will do quite badly in my predictions. Sorry guys.
How is this Thursday's depth looking?
125-135 is my guess