Mega Thread Spring Weather Banter

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Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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Gee GFS throws a curve ball for the Phillys at Randwick on cup day.
Many wet dresses and sloppy heels
 

J_-W_-X

Hard Yards
Sep 28, 2017
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GFS runs reaks of a ECL from weak a tropical disturbance that moves
off the continent. Climo timing would suggest the model could be on to something..
gfs_mslp_ausnz_138.png
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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*we need the rain has turned into
**we'd like some rain, but a run of warm sunny weather would be nice
 
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J_-W_-X

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Sep 28, 2017
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A weak disturbance is slowly organising out around the solomon islands.
As far as i know its unrecognised atm by any agency.


http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&sec=full_disk&x=14228&y=12948&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=8&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Very cold clouds

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-198.21,-10.67,1931

Would put this in the shem thread to watch. But i don't have posting
privileges on that thread.:)(You have insufficient privileges to reply here.)
 

Skichic2

Part of the Furniture
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Feb 22, 2017
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Anyone like to take a guess on the weather for Sunday's Sydney to Gong ride? Just how wet and windy will it be? Weatherzone and BOM have varied amounts.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Anyone like to take a guess on the weather for Sunday's Sydney to Gong ride? Just how wet and windy will it be? Weatherzone and BOM have varied amounts.
Will be dry for the ride.
Just a headwind.
Rain should move in Sunday arvo/evening.
 
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Donza

Dogs body...
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Thanks! I know who to blame if I get wet ;)
LOL
I think you'll hate the wind more..
If there is a chance of a shower. It will be on seacliff bridge. That place (being over the ocean with a cliff behind it) is a magnet for drifty rain off the ocean.
 
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Skichic2

Part of the Furniture
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LOL
I think you'll hate the wind more..
If there is a chance of a shower. It will be on seacliff bridge. That place (being over the ocean with a cliff behind it) is a magnet for drifty rain off the ocean.
I am well used to wind! Anyway it's all downhill isn't it?
 

Swede

One of Us
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I am well used to wind! Anyway it's all downhill isn't it?
Nah, slightly up hill going south followed by a short but painful hill going up to Clifton Pub. Have a love/hate relationship with that bridge and hill both on my rides and runs, nice end scenic on the way out, not so nice on the way back, especially in a southerly :)
 

Skichic2

Part of the Furniture
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Feb 22, 2017
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Nah, slightly up hill going south followed by a short but painful hill going up to Clifton Pub. Have a love/hate relationship with that bridge and hill both on my rides and runs, nice end scenic on the way out, not so nice on the way back, especially in a southerly :)
Was being facetious ;) Around 1000m over 82km. Just enough to keep it interesting.
 

J_-W_-X

Hard Yards
Sep 28, 2017
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GFS looking better than a average marginal front for Vic
on tuesday,not to be confused with the ecl post above.
Cold windy and a tad wet from the south. Really nice
jet @500mb on the plot
.

GeopSLPNZ135.png


t500NZ129.png



t700NZ135.png



tmp2mNZ150.png
wind500NZ138.png

My main passion is tropics. Leave you guys with this and off to
another forum.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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GFS looking better than a average marginal front for Vic
on tuesday,not to be confused with the ecl post above.
Cold windy and a tad wet from the south. Really nice
jet @500mb on the plot
.

GeopSLPNZ135.png


t500NZ129.png



t700NZ135.png



tmp2mNZ150.png
wind500NZ138.png

My main passion is tropics. Leave you guys with this and off to
another forum.
Nice one, mate. I did notice this on this morning's run but I was more interested in the cross-shore (leading to on-shore) implications on NSW's mid to south coast.
It runs up the coast with some gusto.
I like it's potential for swell.

Bit of a clipper for Vicco IMO.

On the other note, inland tropics looks active over the next week.
 

Skichic2

Part of the Furniture
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Feb 22, 2017
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LOL
I think you'll hate the wind more..
If there is a chance of a shower. It will be on seacliff bridge. That place (being over the ocean with a cliff behind it) is a magnet for drifty rain off the ocean.
BOM now agreeing with afternoon showers, but have revised the wind to ENE - that sounds nice.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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BOM now agreeing with afternoon showers, but have revised the wind to ENE - that sounds nice.
Yeah any tail will be nice.
Looks like you'll finish at lang park this year. That will be nice in that weather
 

Jellybeans

Part of the Furniture
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Aug 24, 2015
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GFS looking better than a average marginal front for Vic
on tuesday,not to be confused with the ecl post above.
Cold windy and a tad wet from the south. Really nice
jet @500mb on the plot
.

GeopSLPNZ135.png


t500NZ129.png



t700NZ135.png



tmp2mNZ150.png
wind500NZ138.png

My main passion is tropics. Leave you guys with this and off to
another forum.
Nice plots jwx. Thanks for the posts, especially in the cyclone threads.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
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PW.gif
GFS showing a reasonable amount of instability and PW . Convergence and Vapour transfer patterns indicating precipitation to be better from Central Coast Northwards ( a bit dryer South Coast) IMO
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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PW.gif
GFS showing a reasonable amount of instability and PW . Convergence and Vapour transfer patterns indicating precipitation to be better from Central Coast Northwards ( a bit dryer South Coast) IMO
I think predicting where that will occur is a pin the tail on a flea type action.
These lows are very unpredictable and random
 
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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
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Jul 24, 2006
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Yup.
Past few days looked like it was headed North as it developed ,
Ended up where it was generally modelled / forecast.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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I think predicting where that will occur is a pin the tail on a flea type action.
These lows are very unpredictable and random
It's 96hrs out. It's pretty locked in IMO.
The southern flank (Sydney to the South Coast) is where the low's yield will be as the ULL interacts with the surface trough around Newy. It's actually somewhat reminiscent of last week's action but more centred over the NSW coast.
The north coast is reliant on convective ingredients - always a gamble and isolated at best. GFS & EC both agree IMO.
Screen Shot 2017-11-02 at 8.05.25 pm.png

Screen Shot 2017-11-02 at 8.02.18 pm.png

ocf.stormcast.bsch.init-2017110200z.fcst-201711061000z.precip24ocf.nsw.null.0.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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Just some key points in the broadcast, here:
the main impact of coupling is a reduction in the intensity of
cyclones, with secondary impacts along coastal regions due to
variability in sea surface temperature and sea ice conditions.
improvements associated with cyclone development result in better
forecasts over the tropics in particular, with improvements
increasing with greater lead time. a systematic cooling over the
troposphere is also present.
A reduction in forecast busts is
Found over the tropics during periods of intense cyclone activity.
Some change in geopotential height and temperature biases is found,
With a slight degradation in the tropics.

Verification against surface observations showed globally neutral
Results.
However a small improvement for lead times greater than
120 hrs over maritime regions was found.
 
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Skichic2

Part of the Furniture
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Feb 22, 2017
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Yeah any tail will be nice.
Looks like you'll finish at lang park this year. That will be nice in that weather
We're headed south, not north! And it's now known as Suncorp stadium, but will always be Lang Park in my heart.
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
Moderator
Nov 26, 2014
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My 2 cents worth and stick my neck out is for Central Coast-ish area to recieve the most precip. Hope i am wrong
 
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