Mega Thread Spring Weather Banter

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Claude Cat

On my bike
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The text for that floodwarning.

Initial Flood Watch for Victoria
Issued at 3:59 pm EDT on Wednesday 29 November 2017

Flood Watch Number: 1

A high pressure system will continue to strengthen over the Tasman Sea this week allowing a hot and humid northeasterly airstream to continue. A trough of low pressure crossing the Bight will reach western Victoria on Thursday and then become slow-moving. A low pressure system will develop over northwestern Victoria on Friday before drifting slowly southeastwards over the weekend.

Catchments within the flood watch area are dry.

Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop in the far west during Thursday night before extending across the remaining parts of the State during Friday. The heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will continue on Saturday.


Three day totals of around 60-120mm are expected south of the Divide and over the far northwest with totals of between 100 and 200mm over remaining areas on and north of the Divide. However, totals over the northeast ranges may exceed 250mm.


A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain is also current for Victoria.

Significant stream rises are expected in response to the forecast rainfall. Widespread flooding is likely from Friday onwards in the catchments covered by this flood watch.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Snowy River


Tambo River

Mitchell River

Avon River

Macalister River

Thomson River

Latrobe River

Traralgon Creek

South Gippsland Rivers

Bunyip River and Dandenong Creek

Yarra River

Maribyrnong River

Werribee River

Barwon, Leigh and Moorabool Rivers

Hopkins River

Lake Corangamite

Otway Coast

Upper Murray and Mitta Mitta Rivers

Kiewa River

Ovens and King Rivers

Broken River

Broken Creek

Seven and Castle Creeks

Goulburn River

Campaspe River

Loddon River

Avoca River

Wimmera River
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Nov 26, 2014
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A nice example of the Confluence versus Convergence scenario. Confluence zone ( top plot with accelerated wind speeds
confluence.png
confluence1.png
Bottom plot shows less precip where the 700hPa confluence Zone is.
 
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cookieman

One of Us
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Jul 7, 2013
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These BOM rainfall numbers are looking very serious!
I initially thought 50mm would be nice for Melbourne , now it could be 150mm and up to 250mm in the north east. Major flooding on some rivers and my local creek looks like it will knock over my rear fence again.
Our flour supplier even contacted me to advise of significant price increases to flour for 2018 based on the damage these forecast rainfall figures will have on this seasons harvest.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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We've got our work end of year/Xmas function in the Botanical Gardens on Friday night.
Umm, I think we're gonna be indoors, and I'll be the only one enjoying the deluge. I'm pretty excited looking at all the forecast charts, I love significant rain events.
End of year? its the 2nd of December ...are you a tradie or what? :)
 
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Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Plent of Vorticity in this baby- showing a rather large corresponding Circulating Frontogenesis. Its a melting pot for P W. Big totals for vicco for sure IMO
wadda.gif
 

The Plowking

Part of the Furniture
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Aug 15, 2000
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I reckon 50 for Melbourne.
Kind of in the 'middle' as currently progged.
Fair bit might rotate around and miss.
It's a goody though!
Maybe surf day Friday. Northerly. Rain.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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Best of all . no real rain for Mis Poppy's pool party saturday..prob a storm later. The following week looks wet for the coast.
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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BOM warns Victoria to be hit by 'unprecedented' thunderstorms, flash flooding
By Andie Noonan, Wednesday November 29, 2017 - 18:10 EDT

newsfile

Forecasters say Melbourne could get up to 150 millimetres of rain in two days. - ABC

Victoria is set to be drenched with up to three times its monthly rainfall average over two days with "unprecedented" thunderstorms due to hit the state on Friday and Saturday, which could lead to flash flooding.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a with heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast to move across the state from the west from Thursday night.

Senior forecaster Scott Williams said the heaviest storms were set to hit Melbourne and the state's north-east late on Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday.



"I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low form over Victoria whilst we've got this moisture around," he said.

"So to that extent we are a little bit in unchartered territory in terms of the weather.

"This is a very big event, a very widescale event and it's right at the top end of rainfalls that we've seen in Victoria in the last 30 years."

Mr Williams said there could be rainfall of up to 300 millimetres in the state's north-east ranges.

He said thunderstorms were common in November, but not on this scale.

"November traditionally is a thundery time. It's our peak season for thunderstorms and we do get heavy rain but I'm talking heavy rain as 50, 60 maybe 100 millimetres," Mr Williams said.

"When you're talking 150, up to 300, millimetres on the ranges, that makes it unprecedented."
 

Donza

Dogs body...
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Apr 21, 2004
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120 mm in early February 2005 with that massive Low? IIRC we barely got much more rain til late May that year.
Flinders street was awash ..I was in Niseko...watching online. You guys had a left moving trough...like a ECL for us on the east coast
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Every model has upgraded on the 00Z runs. Even a lower percentile CMC has come to the table with totals up to 200mm in 48 hours. Although GFS's is the big concern with in +250mm in 48 hours around Gippsland (also mentioned above).
It's like receiving our entire winter snow base in less than two days.
Screen Shot 2017-11-29 at 8.51.53 pm.png

Screen Shot 2017-11-29 at 8.52.21 pm.png

Screen Shot 2017-11-29 at 8.52.31 pm.png
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Flinders street was awash ..I was in Niseko...watching online. You guys had a left moving trough...like a ECL for us on the east coast
Which is the astonishing thing, these sort totals are typically born from a slow moving, meandering coastal low as you say, but this sucker is drawing 6/7 inches of fall largely from across the continent. What a ripper of a system.
 
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