Mega Thread Spring Weather Banter

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Donza

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Which is the astonishing thing, these sort totals are typically born from a slow moving, meandering coastal low as you say, but this sucker is drawing it largely from across the continent. What a ripper of a system.
That easterly flow thats been established for weeks contributing?
 

Tanuki

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We'll start an observation thread for this tomorrow.
Am currently camping in East Gippsland, near Wilson's Prom. Here with a bunch of friends and lots of kids. Hmmmm. Might need to pack up and leave Friday. No danger of innundation where we are but if we leave it too late we could get hemmed in. Has been a wet few springs down this way with the wondering lows coming across the continent from the NW
 

Claude Cat

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-29/thunderstorm-warning-issued-for-victoria/9207056

BOM warns Victoria to be hit by 'unprecedented' thunderstorms, flash flooding

Victoria is set to be drenched with up to three times its monthly rainfall average over two days with "unprecedented" thunderstorms due to hit the state on Friday and Saturday, which could lead to flash flooding.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning with heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast to move across the state from the west from Thursday night.

Senior forecaster Scott Williams said the heaviest storms were set to hit Melbourne and the state's north-east late on Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday.

"I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low form over Victoria whilst we've got this moisture around," he said.

"So to that extent we are a little bit in unchartered territory in terms of the weather.

"This is a very big event, a very widescale event and it's right at the top end of rainfalls that we've seen in Victoria in the last 30 years."

Mr Williams said there could be rainfall of up to 300 millimetres in the state's north-east ranges.

He said thunderstorms were common in November, but not on this scale.

"November traditionally is a thundery time. It's our peak season for thunderstorms and we do get heavy rain but I'm talking heavy rain as 50, 60 maybe 100 millimetres," Mr Williams said.

"When you're talking 150, up to 300, millimetres on the ranges, that makes it unprecedented."

Mr Williams said it was like "a switch was flicked" after a cold and wet Melbourne Cup day.

He said since then Melbourne had experienced a record number of days over 30 degrees.

"Not only is it warm, it's humid so the ingredients for this coming rain event is tropical moisture that's been pumped down across eastern Australia by north-easterly winds day after day for about two weeks," Mr Williams said.

Mr Williams also had a warning for farmers harvesting crops: "get it up and get it high."

People have been warned to pay attention to storm warnings over the coming days.

Victorian SES deputy chief officer Tim Wiebusch urged people not to enter floodwaters.

"You don't know what's mixing in those floodwaters … and in particular we don't want to see people driving into flash floodwaters," he said.

"It only takes 15 centimetres to float a small car and see that end up in danger."
 
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POW Hungry

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Am currently camping in East Gippsland, near Wilson's Prom. Here with a bunch of friends and lots of kids. Hmmmm. Might need to pack up and leave Friday. No danger of innundation where we are but if we leave it too late we could get hemmed in. Has been a wet few springs down this way with the wondering lows coming across the continent from the NW
Wise move.
Just last week someone on here passed comment that it was one of their driest, coolest OCT/NOV in a while, albeit near Taralgon. I guess that's jinxed it.
 

Donza

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Moisture transport from NE? Nah.
Not in the form of a low either, but it's funneling and blocking.
Nah I was wondering if that had established itself further west than usual. Its been a very boistrous old humid stormy November . The atmosphere over Victoria has lent itself to more severe storms recently
 
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Donza

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-29/thunderstorm-warning-issued-for-victoria/9207056

BOM warns Victoria to be hit by 'unprecedented' thunderstorms, flash flooding

Victoria is set to be drenched with up to three times its monthly rainfall average over two days with "unprecedented" thunderstorms due to hit the state on Friday and Saturday, which could lead to flash flooding.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning with heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast to move across the state from the west from Thursday night.

Senior forecaster Scott Williams said the heaviest storms were set to hit Melbourne and the state's north-east late on Friday night and into the early hours of Saturday.

"I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low form over Victoria whilst we've got this moisture around," he said.

"So to that extent we are a little bit in unchartered territory in terms of the weather.

"This is a very big event, a very widescale event and it's right at the top end of rainfalls that we've seen in Victoria in the last 30 years."

Mr Williams said there could be rainfall of up to 300 millimetres in the state's north-east ranges.

He said thunderstorms were common in November, but not on this scale.

"November traditionally is a thundery time. It's our peak season for thunderstorms and we do get heavy rain but I'm talking heavy rain as 50, 60 maybe 100 millimetres," Mr Williams said.

"When you're talking 150, up to 300, millimetres on the ranges, that makes it unprecedented."

Mr Williams said it was like "a switch was flicked" after a cold and wet Melbourne Cup day.

He said since then Melbourne had experienced a record number of days over 30 degrees.

"Not only is it warm, it's humid so the ingredients for this coming rain event is tropical moisture that's been pumped down across eastern Australia by north-easterly winds day after day for about two weeks," Mr Williams said.

Mr Williams also had a warning for farmers harvesting crops: "get it up and get it high."

People have been warned to pay attention to storm warnings over the coming days.

Victorian SES deputy chief officer Tim Wiebusch urged people not to enter floodwaters.

"You don't know what's mixing in those floodwaters … and in particular we don't want to see people driving into flash floodwaters," he said.

"It only takes 15 centimetres to float a small car and see that end up in danger."
aye, posted it last page
 
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Kletterer

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DiscoStuAU

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Wise move.
Just last week someone on here passed comment that it was one of their driest, coolest OCT/NOV in a while, albeit near Taralgon. I guess that's jinxed it.

Yep poor old Gippsland and the whole south of the divide have been pretty dried out... they need rain but not this much in such a short period.

My better half living in Myrtleford at the moment will be a concern, their property has a creek running right through it and their house is at the base of a steep hill. The creek runs strong all year fed from the alps and naturally is faster flowing around this time of year with snow melt... will be one to watch
 
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POW Hungry

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Nah I was wondering if that had established itself further west than usual. Its been a very boistrous old humid stormy November . The atmosphere over Victoria has lent itself to more severe storms recently
Argh, got ya. Good question, I actually tried to dig around last night. BoM's got some shit on it, I just find it hard ot find sometimes.
What I did find is that CFS has it as one hell of an anomaly. This from last weeks prog (for this week) - it's looked the same on CFS for weeks.
cfs-avg_z500aMean_swpac_1.png
 

Donza

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Argh, got ya. Good question, I actually tried to dig around last night. BoM's got some shit on it, I just find it hard ot find sometimes.
What I did find is that CFS has it as one hell of an anomaly. This from last weeks prog (for this week) - it's looked the same on CFS for weeks.
cfs-avg_z500aMean_swpac_1.png
I've just not seen, and @Claude Cat would be in a position to judge. A warmer more humid November for Victoria. Those Nor east flows have pushed way down and inland. Consistently. You'd have to consider this is altering the development of this trough from normal to extrordinary.
 

POW Hungry

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Yep poor old Gippsland and the whole south of the divide have been pretty dried out... they need rain but not this much in such a short period.

My better half living in Myrtleford at the moment will be a concern, their property has a creek running right through it and their house is at the base of a steep hill. The creek runs strong all year fed from the alps and naturally is faster flowing around this time of year with snow melt... will be one to watch
Good luck, mate. I hope you can somehow lend a hand up there. Looks a direct hit on Myrtleford IMO.
Without over dramatizing it, you can probably add about 10-20% on progged falls for the alpine too. Which is why the BOM are throwing around calls of 300mm.
 
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Claude Cat

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I've just not seen, and @Claude Cat would be in a position to judge. A warmer more humid November for Victoria. Those Nor east flows have pushed way down and inland. Consistently. You'd have to consider this is altering the development of this trough from normal to extrordinary.
November has been unprecedented here in Melbourne.
 

POW Hungry

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Looking at the models, there's some more troughing down the East Coast on Tuesday with this westward ridging over the Tasman bringing moisture down Coastal Eastern Seaboard. Could be salt in the wound for NE Vicco.
 

Tanuki

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I've just not seen, and @Claude Cat would be in a position to judge. A warmer more humid November for Victoria. Those Nor east flows have pushed way down and inland. Consistently. You'd have to consider this is altering the development of this trough from normal to extrordinary.
similar system two weeks ago. Obv not as intense
 

Seafm

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I wasn't part of this gig back in 2010/11 but to those that were, does this event have a lot of similarities to back then? Just for the record there's stuff all happening in North Queensland ATM. There's supposed to be a bit of rain happening over the next couple of days but I'll believe it when I see it.
 

The Plowking

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You're down Anglesea way, right? Nothing gnarly down your way. But yeah, I heard you've been flogged by the heat so treat yourself to Friday off.
Peninsula.
Was hoping to head over there (surf coast) for a Sunday dawn session at one of the 's-se windswell' points. Looks a bit underwhelming for that. Out of window.
 
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nfip

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Looking at the models, there's some more troughing down the East Coast on Tuesday with this westward ridging over the Tasman bringing moisture down Coastal Eastern Seaboard. Could be salt in the wound for NE Vicco.

Been a bit distracted from this event this week ( mind has been on the recent deployment of drum lines not far off our beaches and what appears to be a cover for a shark cull :tany::axe::cry:)

After tomorrow fo Vic and loooks like the ALps be holding my breath also for when this drifts into the Tasman.
edit : tho most the moisture in the trough looks to be to the N and E of the developing Low.
Good luck down there in Vic next few days folks.
imageserver.jsp
 

POW Hungry

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Perhaps BoM a little overcaucious on the upgrade yesterday; given the press releases and figures thrown around etc. Things were looking pretty wild there yesterday since the 00z run but the model trend wasn’t exactly fixed...
 
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Tanuki

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Any thoughts on what's in store for South Gippsland? Looks as though it'll be heavy but more focused on the Alps and Gippsland (north). Probably hope casting, should pack up the tent
 

davidg

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Totals across all models have come back a fair bit this morning.
No change in the synoptic-scale stuff, looks more like a reduction in meso/local scales.
We're back to where we were this time yesterday with totals easily in the 80-125mm range - with up to 200mm in some parts IMO.
gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2017112912z.start-30.stop-84.vic..png
18z though. A few grains of salt required.

12z bumps it back up. 06z and 00z runs will be "interesting". SW Vic should start to see some falls late tonight so i guess we can begin to evaluate the accuracy of the various model runs in real time by early tomorrow morning.
Capture.JPG
 
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POW Hungry

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18z though. A few grains of salt required.

12z bumps it back up. 06z and 00z runs will be "interesting". SW Vic should start to see some falls late tonight so i guess we can begin to evaluate the accuracy of the various model runs in real time by early tomorrow morning.
Capture.JPG
Fair call, but I just couldn't be stuffed posting the 3 other 12z model totals. Downgrade all the same.
 

DiscoStuAU

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Some of the extremes we have had in Melbourne for November, taken from Janes homepage:
http://www.janebunn.net/melbourne/
  • We've had 14 pre-summer 30 degree days, with one more to finish the month. The record was 12.
  • We had a stretch of 9 days of 28 degrees or higher last week, the longest on record in Spring.
  • We had a stretch of 14 nights over 15 degrees, the longest on record in Spring.
  • The city is averaging 15 to 25 degrees for the month. The long term average is 11 to 22 degrees. The maximum record is 27 degrees set in 2009. The minimum record is 16.9 degrees also set in 2009.
 

POW Hungry

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Some of the extremes we have had in Melbourne for November, taken from Janes homepage:
http://www.janebunn.net/melbourne/
  • We've had 14 pre-summer 30 degree days, with one more to finish the month. The record was 12.
  • We had a stretch of 9 days of 28 degrees or higher last week, the longest on record in Spring.
  • We had a stretch of 14 nights over 15 degrees, the longest on record in Spring.
  • The city is averaging 15 to 25 degrees for the month. The long term average is 11 to 22 degrees. The maximum record is 27 degrees set in 2009. The minimum record is 16.9 degrees also set in 2009.
And I haven't surfed in 2 weeks. New record this side of last year. NE'lies suck in Sydney!;)
 

Donza

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Some of the extremes we have had in Melbourne for November, taken from Janes homepage:
http://www.janebunn.net/melbourne/
  • We've had 14 pre-summer 30 degree days, with one more to finish the month. The record was 12.
  • We had a stretch of 9 days of 28 degrees or higher last week, the longest on record in Spring.
  • We had a stretch of 14 nights over 15 degrees, the longest on record in Spring.
  • The city is averaging 15 to 25 degrees for the month. The long term average is 11 to 22 degrees. The maximum record is 27 degrees set in 2009. The minimum record is 16.9 degrees also set in 2009.
You've swapped weather with Brisbane.
I don't think they got over 30 yet
 
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