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Mega Thread Spring Weather Banter

Discussion in 'General & World' started by Claude Cat, Oct 8, 2017.

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  1. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gumby question and likely no easy answer...what has been the anchoring mechanism for this long lingering High. ?
    Feels like it's been held there for a month .
     
  2. phrozen

    phrozen Hard Yards

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    Saturday morning looking ominous up in NW Vic, meant to be moving to argh.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Personally...I think the highest rainfall will be in the Alpine regions of NSW...just based purely on experience. As this upper low stalls , you'lll see alot of windward lift over the alps...coupled with the chance of storms = big falls .

    PS I think the L'etape organisers are morons
     
  5. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    They have certainly done some strange things, I don't think cycling events are their norm? You know like putting the "hub" in a carpark 20km from civilisation.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    There's a bit of a window on Saturday morning where it's not too bad. BUT I expect flooding from the rain overnight and by early afternoon it goes to custard again.

    IMO
     
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  7. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon we'll squeeze 30-40mm out of this on Saturday (Lower BM's). Also looking good for some more rain up this way early next week from the tough as it moves east and yet another low forms just off the coast. Or is it the same low? Cant really tell its so dynamic at the moment. One things for sure its going to be a great 5-7 days of weather watching!
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It virtually has.
    We've seen MJO revisiting our region quite a bit over the last month, this means increased divergence at the Tropics = subsidence (High pressure) in the mid lats. Coupled with an easing LWT, you'll see blocks and strenthening in ridging. Not uncommon, but this one has been particularly broad.
     
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  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    There is a trailing upper level low behind this one...its the one you speak of
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, and the troughing draws in some tropical mess as well. It has some amplitude!
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #1560 POW_hungry, Nov 30, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2017
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  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cheers Pow.
    I'll check all that out later when I get a chance.
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    SWW out
    HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely over the Riverina, South West Slopes, parts of the Lower West, southern parts of the Central West Slopes and Plains and the western parts of the Southern Tablelands, Australian Capital Territory and the Snowy Mountains districts during Friday and Saturday.

    The heaviest falls are expected to be during the latter half of the day on Friday, and throughout Saturday.

    48 hour totals of in excess of 100 mm are likely for these areas with localised falls possibly more than double this, especially closer to the ranges near

    the Victorian border.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 110 km/h are possible over the Alpine peaks above 1900 metres during late Friday and

    throughout Saturday.

    Locations which may be affected include Yass, Condobolin, Wagga Wagga, Albury, Young, West Wyalong, Tumbarumba, Deniliquin, Griffith, Hay, Narrandera, Jindabyne and Balranald.
     
  13. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Summed up again nicely below.


     
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  14. phrozen

    phrozen Hard Yards

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    Starting to trigger NW of Mildura, bit of activity by the looks.
     
  15. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cells now popping up over PPB and heading over the Otways. Looking ominous towards the SW from the city.
     
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  16. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Would you almost consider the latest access-r an upgrade??
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dat dreaded block...
     
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  18. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sitting on the beach looking across the bay to Wilson's Prom and the first cumulus have arrived. Looks menacing
     
  19. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thank goodness the BOM have the usual Melb radar back in action instead of using the Melb Airport one. Gonna get a lot of viewing in the next three days.

    Looks like we topped out at 34.6C.
     
  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks moist
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Windshear still similar to last 12-18 hour plots. They have however been riddled with complexity (eddies ) ie hard to determine exact advection behavior - Confluence/ Diffluence part of the mesoscale equation, hence the slight downgrade in precip totals.
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    200mm upper end for Thredbo top station.
    I've never seen that number for there...
     
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  23. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Me either goodbye VT
     
  24. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Southern NSW rainfall predictions could do with an upgrade IMO.
     
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  25. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just showing how it looks when the river blows, that is all.
     
  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh yeah for sure....
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    For a conservative state? Nah
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats some pretty logged alpine Sphagnum bog.
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    All I’ve seen in Sydney today is low level scud and humid haze streaming south for the border. Clear as day out to sea... funny that
     
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  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its socked into the escarpment behind me
     
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  33. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL That one made me spill my beer.
     
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  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gee GFS moved that bullseye
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #flooding rains for the next week plus
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah but its a stonker of a dartboard.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Bigger and badder than before

    [​IMG]
     
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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And wind shear nicely aligned.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rosewhite (near myrtleford) has rainfall rates off the charts on Saturday...and Myrtleford is very-much in the same leaky boat.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Catalyst.
     
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  41. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bloomen heck.

    Are we still talking 200mm+ for them?

    My other half and the family are being very complacent about it - to quote "we'll be fine, it happens all the time". Not sure they appreciate the severity of this event
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    From what I can see from the models (and as you highlighted before) it will not only cop the brunt of it, but also run off from the mountains. EC has the entire sky opening around Myrtleford/Beechworth. 200mm is very possible for Myrtleford and at the very least for the adjoining ranges.
    Be cautious and make sure there's plan B, that's what I'd go with.

    I don't know the records for that neck of the woods, but they'd be close if not exceeding them.

    EDIT: actually the wettest daily record for Edi Upper is 234mm in 1993. Yep, not impossibly matching that.
     
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    30-80 mm Friday, 60-200mm Sat for Bright coming your way.
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC tells me 16mb drop in pressure from Saturday 4pm to Sunday 4pm. Decent spiral on it's way out... As per @Donzah 's call yesterdee.
    #cookingtasman
     
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  45. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thunderstorms rumbling down here in Prom Country. Definitely packing up tomorrow
     
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  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You know what . There is a complacency nowadays with weather warnings . There are so many issued and we have so much detail the message gets lost somehow.
    People don't read the fine print of these forecasts. The Bike race in Jindy is a point in case. ....the she'll be right attitude .
     
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vic. Sheep graziers alert for Wimmera,North Central,South West and Central. What month is this ?
     
  48. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I get the feeling that many don’t appreciate the combo of rain, wind and cold. And I keep recalling Toowoomba and Grantham.
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There will be much of this IMO. Pic is Wagga
     
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  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cooma hospital is expecting to be very very busy.....so at least they are prepared
     
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