Mega Thread Spring Weather Banter

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nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
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Gumby question and likely no easy answer...what has been the anchoring mechanism for this long lingering High. ?
Feels like it's been held there for a month .
 

Claude Cat

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gfs.raincast.bsch.init-2017112918z.start-0.stop-192.vic..png
 

Skichic2

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You've swapped weather with Brisbane.
I don't think they got over 30 yet
Personally...I think the highest rainfall will be in the Alpine regions of NSW...just based purely on experience. As this upper low stalls , you'lll see alot of windward lift over the alps...coupled with the chance of storms = big falls .

PS I think the L'etape organisers are morons
They have certainly done some strange things, I don't think cycling events are their norm? You know like putting the "hub" in a carpark 20km from civilisation.
 

Claude Cat

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Personally...I think the highest rainfall will be in the Alpine regions of NSW...just based purely on experience. As this upper low stalls , you'lll see alot of windward lift over the alps...coupled with the chance of storms = big falls .

PS I think the L'etape organisers are morons
There's a bit of a window on Saturday morning where it's not too bad. BUT I expect flooding from the rain overnight and by early afternoon it goes to custard again.

IMO
 

davidg

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I reckon we'll squeeze 30-40mm out of this on Saturday (Lower BM's). Also looking good for some more rain up this way early next week from the tough as it moves east and yet another low forms just off the coast. Or is it the same low? Cant really tell its so dynamic at the moment. One things for sure its going to be a great 5-7 days of weather watching!
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Gumby question and likely no easy answer...what has been the anchoring mechanism for this long lingering High. ?
Feels like it's been held there for a month .
It virtually has.
We've seen MJO revisiting our region quite a bit over the last month, this means increased divergence at the Tropics = subsidence (High pressure) in the mid lats. Coupled with an easing LWT, you'll see blocks and strenthening in ridging. Not uncommon, but this one has been particularly broad.
 
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Donza

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I reckon we'll squeeze 30-40mm out of this on Saturday (Lower BM's). Also looking good for some more rain up this way early next week from the tough as it moves east and yet another low forms just off the coast. Or is it the same low? Cant really tell its so dynamic at the moment. One things for sure its going to be a great 5-7 days of weather watching!
There is a trailing upper level low behind this one...its the one you speak of
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
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It virtually has.
We've seen MJO revisiting our region quite a bit over the last month, this means increased divergence at the Tropics = subsidence (High pressure) in the mid lats. Coupled with an easing LWT, you'll see blocks and strenthening in ridging. Not uncommon, but this one has been particularly broad.
Cheers Pow.
I'll check all that out later when I get a chance.
 

Donza

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SWW out
HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely over the Riverina, South West Slopes, parts of the Lower West, southern parts of the Central West Slopes and Plains and the western parts of the Southern Tablelands, Australian Capital Territory and the Snowy Mountains districts during Friday and Saturday.

The heaviest falls are expected to be during the latter half of the day on Friday, and throughout Saturday.

48 hour totals of in excess of 100 mm are likely for these areas with localised falls possibly more than double this, especially closer to the ranges near

the Victorian border.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 80 to 90 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 110 km/h are possible over the Alpine peaks above 1900 metres during late Friday and

throughout Saturday.

Locations which may be affected include Yass, Condobolin, Wagga Wagga, Albury, Young, West Wyalong, Tumbarumba, Deniliquin, Griffith, Hay, Narrandera, Jindabyne and Balranald.
 

Tanuki

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Sitting on the beach looking across the bay to Wilson's Prom and the first cumulus have arrived. Looks menacing
 

Edgecrusher

Pool Room
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Apr 19, 2013
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Thank goodness the BOM have the usual Melb radar back in action instead of using the Melb Airport one. Gonna get a lot of viewing in the next three days.

Looks like we topped out at 34.6C.
 

Kletterer

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GFS Windshear still similar to last 12-18 hour plots. They have however been riddled with complexity (eddies ) ie hard to determine exact advection behavior - Confluence/ Diffluence part of the mesoscale equation, hence the slight downgrade in precip totals.
 

DiscoStuAU

One of Us
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May 30, 2015
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Rosewhite (near myrtleford) has rainfall rates off the charts on Saturday...and Myrtleford is very-much in the same leaky boat.
Screen Shot 2017-11-30 at 6.25.56 pm.png
Bloomen heck.

Are we still talking 200mm+ for them?

My other half and the family are being very complacent about it - to quote "we'll be fine, it happens all the time". Not sure they appreciate the severity of this event
 

POW Hungry

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Bloomen heck.

Are we still talking 200mm+ for them?

My other half and the family are being very complacent about it - to quote "we'll be fine, it happens all the time". Not sure they appreciate the severity of this event
From what I can see from the models (and as you highlighted before) it will not only cop the brunt of it, but also run off from the mountains. EC has the entire sky opening around Myrtleford/Beechworth. 200mm is very possible for Myrtleford and at the very least for the adjoining ranges.
Be cautious and make sure there's plan B, that's what I'd go with.

I don't know the records for that neck of the woods, but they'd be close if not exceeding them.

EDIT: actually the wettest daily record for Edi Upper is 234mm in 1993. Yep, not impossibly matching that.
 
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Donza

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From what I can see from the models (and as you highlighted before) it will not only cop the brunt of it, but also run off from the mountains. EC has the entire sky opening around Myrtleford/Beechworth. 200mm is very possible for Myrtleford and at the very least for the adjoining ranges.
Be cautious and make sure there's plan B, that's what I'd go with.

I don't know the records for that neck of the woods, but they'd be close if not exceeding them.

EDIT: actually the wettest daily record for Edi Upper is 234mm in 1993. Yep, not impossibly matching that.
You know what . There is a complacency nowadays with weather warnings . There are so many issued and we have so much detail the message gets lost somehow.
People don't read the fine print of these forecasts. The Bike race in Jindy is a point in case. ....the she'll be right attitude .
 

Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Vic. Sheep graziers alert for Wimmera,North Central,South West and Central. What month is this ?
 

Skichic2

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You know what . There is a complacency nowadays with weather warnings . There are so many issued and we have so much detail the message gets lost somehow.
People don't read the fine print of these forecasts. The Bike race in Jindy is a point in case. ....the she'll be right attitude .
I get the feeling that many don’t appreciate the combo of rain, wind and cold. And I keep recalling Toowoomba and Grantham.
 

Donza

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I get the feeling that many don’t appreciate the combo of rain, wind and cold. And I keep recalling Toowoomba and Grantham.
Cooma hospital is expecting to be very very busy.....so at least they are prepared
 
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