Mega Thread Spring Weather Banter

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Donza

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I get the feeling that many don’t appreciate the combo of rain, wind and cold. And I keep recalling Toowoomba and Grantham.
I think the media are also partly to blame, they hype stuff that shouldn't be (eg anything that impacts sydney) yet forget about Rural areas.
 
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Claude Cat

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The Bike race in Jindy is a point in case. ....the she'll be right attitude .
I don't want to harp on about it in the cycling thread. But if the pros have called off the Tour of Bright and yet others continue with an amateur grand fondo, what does that tell you?
Nuts.
 
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Donza

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I don't want to harp on about it in the cycling thread. But if the pros have called off the Tour of Bright and yet others continue with an amateur grand fondo, what does that tell you?
Nuts.
nah, I know .. and i won't .... but I wouldn't want to be 30kms from a town in a thunderstorm after I had a off . @chicski would know so much more than me, the enviroment around those parts can appear so benign. However it can get so frikken nasty. I'd rate the weather down there to have the most extremes i've seen in Aus. Much like NZ .
 

POW Hungry

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You know what . There is a complacency nowadays with weather warnings . There are so many issued and we have so much detail the message gets lost somehow.
People don't read the fine print of these forecasts. The Bike race in Jindy is a point in case. ....the she'll be right attitude .
So true. We also live on a continent of flat, arid land. 'aint no one in Aus seen the heavens open up like this over the Main Range/Alpine... At least not of credible account for people to learn from.
 
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POW Hungry

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This afternoon's EC numbers appear to be a significant downgrade IMO
~50mm for Melbourne
~100mm for Perisher
Just re-aligned and rationalised to NE VIC
00Z (this arvos)
Screen Shot 2017-11-30 at 7.55.20 pm.png

12Z (this mornings run)
Screen Shot 2017-11-30 at 7.56.47 pm.png
 

Donza

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So true. We also live on a continent of flat, arid land. 'aint no one in Aus seen the heavens open up like this over the Main Range/Alpine... At least not of credible account for people to learn from.
This is west coast rain...bro (i was there in January this year when every pass on the south island got shut due to rain) Alpine rain just feel heavier LOL
 

POW Hungry

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This is west coast rain...bro (i was there in January this year when every pass on the south island got shut due to rain) Alpine rain just feel heavier LOL
haha ...And speaking from first experience, I've always said to the average Joe... if you're not familiar with 80-100mm in several hours go to Fiordland NZ or Tofino, BC.
 

Donza

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haha ...And speaking from first experience, I've always said to the average Joe... if you're not familiar with 80-100mm in several hours go to Fiordland NZ or Tofino, BC.
*or Haast.

So thats what it looks like ...this year ...a 4 hr window of weather in 5 weeks of rain
16252368_10154375939083178_7143635425958564096_o.jpg
 
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nfip

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You know what . There is a complacency nowadays with weather warnings . There are so many issued and we have so much detail the message gets lost somehow.
People don't read the fine print of these forecasts. The Bike race in Jindy is a point in case. ....the she'll be right attitude .
Yes I've read some of your advice on Jindy / Le tape pages D.
Has been well suggested ( good advice ) but not well acknowledged.
IMO.
<shakes head >
 

Snow Blowey

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How's the current sat pic. Isolated cell tracking for Dubbo from the NE going against the approaching band of storms from the west. Wind just picked up. Welcome as it is muggy and warm at the moment.
 

Billy_Buttons

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You know what . There is a complacency nowadays with weather warnings . There are so many issued and we have so much detail the message gets lost somehow.
People don't read the fine print of these forecasts. The Bike race in Jindy is a point in case. ....the she'll be right attitude .
Blame facebook and the food pics. This is far more important than any necessary news. 21st century.
 

Donza

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Yep. Backed way off. Makes me think that Saturday morning cricket in Melbourne might be possible.
don't they close the grounds in Melbourne? looks like a stormy ole day into evening with HEAVY falls?
 

Skiddy85

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Did some simple maths on a few of the dams in the northeast and Melbourne to work out if there was much risk of spilling. Maths is very simple, headroom in dam divided by catchment area. Number is average rainfall assuming no losses, so its a guide only.
Thompson: 725mm
Upper Yarra: 257mm
Marondah: 42mm
Eildon: 246mm
Dartmouth: 135mm
Hume: 49mm, although this has so much else going on its catchment, including Dartmouth
Eppalock: 198mm
Nillahcootie: 98mm
Glenmaggie: 13mm

Places like Lake Buffalo already full, so won't hold anything back.

Certainly some, like Nillahcootie might spill, but the really big ones like Eildon and Dartmouth seem unlikely to, which will probably be a relief to those downstream.
 

Donza

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Did some simple maths on a few of the dams in the northeast and Melbourne to work out if there was much risk of spilling. Maths is very simple, headroom in dam divided by catchment area. Number is average rainfall assuming no losses, so its a guide only.
Thompson: 725mm
Upper Yarra: 257mm
Marondah: 42mm
Eildon: 246mm
Dartmouth: 135mm
Hume: 49mm, although this has so much else going on its catchment, including Dartmouth
Eppalock: 198mm
Nillahcootie: 98mm
Glenmaggie: 13mm

Places like Lake Buffalo already full, so won't hold anything back.

Certainly some, like Nillahcootie might spill, but the really big ones like Eildon and Dartmouth seem unlikely to, which will probably be a relief to those downstream.
Bonnie Doon waterskiing might be ok this New years?
 
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Gregah

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Yep. Backed way off. Makes me think that Saturday morning cricket in Melbourne might be possible.
So EC has come right off (for Melbourne) but AXS R has held its line. I'd usually back EC in a winter scenario but have NFI in this abnormally humid and wet spring environment. Thoughts on which is likely to be more on the money in this particular setup?
 

Claude Cat

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So EC has come right off (for Melbourne) but AXS R has held its line. I'd usually back EC in a winter scenario but have NFI in this abnormally humid and wet spring environment. Thoughts on which is likely to be more on the money in this particular setup?
As Pow said above, it's wobbling east. The axis is along the NSW / Vic border especially in the east.
Lastest GFS run above confirms what EC was showing earlier.
 
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Hermon

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Almost a NSW and not Vic event if GFS is correct...

A good test to see which forecast model is on the money.
 
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