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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Claude Cat, Oct 8, 2017.
With cyclists? Or just in general?
I think the media are also partly to blame, they hype stuff that shouldn't be (eg anything that impacts sydney) yet forget about Rural areas.
Cyclists...they got flogged last year, expect this weekend to be far worse.
Wow. I never heard of any injuries last year.
No..I know...to be honest its quite interesting hearing about their customers ...gives a real snapshot into the community and events ski seasons etc. ...
I don't want to harp on about it in the cycling thread. But if the pros have called off the Tour of Bright and yet others continue with an amateur grand fondo, what does that tell you?
2012 NE Vic floods 7 day totals- Wang 241mm, Beechworth 245mm, Albury 256mm, Yarrawonga 277mm...... Mt, Buffalo 525mm.
nah, I know .. and i won't .... but I wouldn't want to be 30kms from a town in a thunderstorm after I had a off . @chicski would know so much more than me, the enviroment around those parts can appear so benign. However it can get so frikken nasty. I'd rate the weather down there to have the most extremes i've seen in Aus. Much like NZ .
I'd be very surprised if we don't see totals exceeding these (Buffalo excepted).
So true. We also live on a continent of flat, arid land. 'aint no one in Aus seen the heavens open up like this over the Main Range/Alpine... At least not of credible account for people to learn from.
This afternoon's EC numbers appear to be a significant downgrade IMO
~50mm for Melbourne
~100mm for Perisher
EC is interesting within 72 hrs....it often tempers IMO.
Just re-aligned and rationalised to NE VIC
00Z (this arvos)
12Z (this mornings run)
This is west coast rain...bro (i was there in January this year when every pass on the south island got shut due to rain) Alpine rain just feel heavier
Seems a little more localized too?
haha ...And speaking from first experience, I've always said to the average Joe... if you're not familiar with 80-100mm in several hours go to Fiordland NZ or Tofino, BC.
*apologies if posted already.
Perhaps. Although, it appears to me; more orographic inspired, probably due to better res?
AXS-R showing 300mm+ for the NE of Victoria.
The feed wrapping its way into Vic.
So thats what it looks like ...this year ...a 4 hr window of weather in 5 weeks of rain
AXS R wins ...cause its modelling that upflow off those brutal northerlies
The radar is amazing
get the feeling kick off may be earlier tomorrow?
Epic. Do want to get there.
Mate i've been there 10 times at least. This is the first time i've seen the sky. It snowed the night before . Yet was 24 degrees or so ... Love it. You would go nuts with the camera
Yes some funky temp gradients over that way
DP's look interesting over the alps................
Yes I've read some of your advice on Jindy / Le tape pages D.
Has been well suggested ( good advice ) but not well acknowledged.
<shakes head >
You'd be forgiven for being mistaken at being half in the clear above 2k.
THREDBO-LAND (SAT 10pm):
You'd know...post Kurrawa a few years back
If it hits there in those quantities the runoff will smash the river on my property. I’ll get some pics if it materialises.
Still against it with the SDL 's ffs
Us new skoolers say it is like turning an ocean liner....
How's the current sat pic. Isolated cell tracking for Dubbo from the NE going against the approaching band of storms from the west. Wind just picked up. Welcome as it is muggy and warm at the moment.
and it was a game changer.
took two times ...
lets hope this one don't come to that.
Blame facebook and the food pics. This is far more important than any necessary news. 21st century.
Yep. Backed way off. Makes me think that Saturday morning cricket in Melbourne might be possible.
I wouldn't be that optimistic!
don't they close the grounds in Melbourne? looks like a stormy ole day into evening with HEAVY falls?
A good crawler heading for you. Just saw it. Looks toey. Dying though
A little bit of an East to West mover early next week?
And a sly chance at some upper elevation, summer snow if it connects with the low well.
Did some simple maths on a few of the dams in the northeast and Melbourne to work out if there was much risk of spilling. Maths is very simple, headroom in dam divided by catchment area. Number is average rainfall assuming no losses, so its a guide only.
Upper Yarra: 257mm
Hume: 49mm, although this has so much else going on its catchment, including Dartmouth
Places like Lake Buffalo already full, so won't hold anything back.
Certainly some, like Nillahcootie might spill, but the really big ones like Eildon and Dartmouth seem unlikely to, which will probably be a relief to those downstream.
IMO ...the follow up is super fluid and frankly a bit worrying. The SST anoms are cooked off the coast. Something will happen ...ask me sunday.
Bonnie Doon waterskiing might be ok this New years?
So EC has come right off (for Melbourne) but AXS R has held its line. I'd usually back EC in a winter scenario but have NFI in this abnormally humid and wet spring environment. Thoughts on which is likely to be more on the money in this particular setup?
As Pow said above, it's wobbling east. The axis is along the NSW / Vic border especially in the east.
Lastest GFS run above confirms what EC was showing earlier.
Almost a NSW and not Vic event if GFS is correct...
A good test to see which forecast model is on the money.