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Mega Thread Spring Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by Claude Cat, Oct 8, 2017.

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  1. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    With cyclists? Or just in general?
     
  2. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the media are also partly to blame, they hype stuff that shouldn't be (eg anything that impacts sydney) yet forget about Rural areas.
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cyclists...they got flogged last year, expect this weekend to be far worse.
     
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  4. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow. I never heard of any injuries last year.
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No..I know...to be honest its quite interesting hearing about their customers ...gives a real snapshot into the community and events ski seasons etc. ...
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't want to harp on about it in the cycling thread. But if the pros have called off the Tour of Bright and yet others continue with an amateur grand fondo, what does that tell you?
    Nuts.
     
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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    2012 NE Vic floods 7 day totals- Wang 241mm, Beechworth 245mm, Albury 256mm, Yarrawonga 277mm...... Mt, Buffalo 525mm.
     
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  8. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    nah, I know .. and i won't .... but I wouldn't want to be 30kms from a town in a thunderstorm after I had a off . @chicski would know so much more than me, the enviroment around those parts can appear so benign. However it can get so frikken nasty. I'd rate the weather down there to have the most extremes i've seen in Aus. Much like NZ .
     
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  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'd be very surprised if we don't see totals exceeding these (Buffalo excepted).
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So true. We also live on a continent of flat, arid land. 'aint no one in Aus seen the heavens open up like this over the Main Range/Alpine... At least not of credible account for people to learn from.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    This afternoon's EC numbers appear to be a significant downgrade IMO
    ~50mm for Melbourne
    ~100mm for Perisher
     
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  12. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is interesting within 72 hrs....it often tempers IMO.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just re-aligned and rationalised to NE VIC
    00Z (this arvos)

    12Z (this mornings run)
     
  14. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is west coast rain...bro (i was there in January this year when every pass on the south island got shut due to rain) Alpine rain just feel heavier LOL
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Seems a little more localized too?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    haha ...And speaking from first experience, I've always said to the average Joe... if you're not familiar with 80-100mm in several hours go to Fiordland NZ or Tofino, BC.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    *apologies if posted already.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps. Although, it appears to me; more orographic inspired, probably due to better res?
     
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  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    AXS-R showing 300mm+ for the NE of Victoria.
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    The feed wrapping its way into Vic. :D
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    *or Haast.

    So thats what it looks like ...this year ...a 4 hr window of weather in 5 weeks of rain [​IMG]
     
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  22. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS R wins ...cause its modelling that upflow off those brutal northerlies
     
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  23. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The radar is amazing :eek:
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    get the feeling kick off may be earlier tomorrow?
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Epic. Do want to get there.
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mate i've been there 10 times at least. This is the first time i've seen the sky. It snowed the night before . Yet was 24 degrees or so ... Love it. You would go nuts with the camera
     
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  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Yes some funky temp gradients over that way
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    DP's look interesting over the alps................
     
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  29. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes I've read some of your advice on Jindy / Le tape pages D.
    Has been well suggested ( good advice ) but not well acknowledged.
    IMO.
    <shakes head >
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'd be forgiven for being mistaken at being half in the clear above 2k.
    THREDBO-LAND (SAT 10pm):
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'd know...post Kurrawa a few years back
     
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  32. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it hits there in those quantities the runoff will smash the river on my property. I’ll get some pics if it materialises.
     
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  33. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutly.
    Still against it with the SDL 's ffs
    Us new skoolers say it is like turning an ocean liner....
     
  34. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    How's the current sat pic. Isolated cell tracking for Dubbo from the NE going against the approaching band of storms from the west. Wind just picked up. Welcome as it is muggy and warm at the moment.
     
  35. nfip

    nfip Cold 'n Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    and it was a game changer.
    took two times ...
    lets hope this one don't come to that.
     
  36. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blame facebook and the food pics. This is far more important than any necessary news. 21st century.
     
  37. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    Yep. Backed way off. Makes me think that Saturday morning cricket in Melbourne might be possible.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I wouldn't be that optimistic!
     
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  39. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    don't they close the grounds in Melbourne? looks like a stormy ole day into evening with HEAVY falls?
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A good crawler heading for you. Just saw it. Looks toey. Dying though
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    A little bit of an East to West mover early next week?
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And a sly chance at some upper elevation, summer snow if it connects with the low well.
     
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  43. Skiddy85

    Skiddy85 Addicted

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    Did some simple maths on a few of the dams in the northeast and Melbourne to work out if there was much risk of spilling. Maths is very simple, headroom in dam divided by catchment area. Number is average rainfall assuming no losses, so its a guide only.
    Thompson: 725mm
    Upper Yarra: 257mm
    Marondah: 42mm
    Eildon: 246mm
    Dartmouth: 135mm
    Hume: 49mm, although this has so much else going on its catchment, including Dartmouth
    Eppalock: 198mm
    Nillahcootie: 98mm
    Glenmaggie: 13mm

    Places like Lake Buffalo already full, so won't hold anything back.

    Certainly some, like Nillahcootie might spill, but the really big ones like Eildon and Dartmouth seem unlikely to, which will probably be a relief to those downstream.
     
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO ...the follow up is super fluid and frankly a bit worrying. The SST anoms are cooked off the coast. Something will happen ...ask me sunday.
     
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  45. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bonnie Doon waterskiing might be ok this New years?
     
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  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Wobbling east.

    [​IMG]
     
  47. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    So EC has come right off (for Melbourne) but AXS R has held its line. I'd usually back EC in a winter scenario but have NFI in this abnormally humid and wet spring environment. Thoughts on which is likely to be more on the money in this particular setup?
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS R
     
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  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    As Pow said above, it's wobbling east. The axis is along the NSW / Vic border especially in the east.
    Lastest GFS run above confirms what EC was showing earlier.
     
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  50. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Almost a NSW and not Vic event if GFS is correct...

    A good test to see which forecast model is on the money.
     
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