Mega Thread Spring Weather discussion thread

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by Nidecker, Sep 25, 2015.

  1. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    18,159
    Likes Received:
    11,321
    Location:
    melbourne
    i was blown away how dry the soil was up on my central vic farm on the weekend
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Predicted 31 in Melbourne on Tuesday (3 days in the 30s). :eek:
     
  3. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
    Looking at the 850's...I reckon you will nudge 35
     
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yeh, looking like it could get warmer.
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  6. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
    That heatbank to the NW... get a decent northerly and you are on.
    Depends if it beats that bay wind I guess.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Coastal NSW looks rather warm too.

    Big melt across the alps as well.
     
  8. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
    Did anyone notice the east coast on that chart?
    ouch
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  9. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
    snap
     
  10. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,516
    Likes Received:
    18,547
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    Perisher forecast from the BoM

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
    Hair drier
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  12. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    18,159
    Likes Received:
    11,321
    Location:
    melbourne
    hmm guess i wont be burning off this weekend
     
  13. sbm

    sbm One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2010
    Messages:
    3,064
    Likes Received:
    3,370
    Location:
    Sydney
    52km/h gusts at Perisher AWS confirm Normo's observation that it's blardy windy.
     
  14. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    709
    Likes Received:
    521
    Location:
    Helensburgh
    Having four or five days of 30 degree days with low humidity as well is not good for the eastern states ATM If you live in a bushfire prone area get your plan together.
     
  15. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,516
    Likes Received:
    18,547
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    A lot of people always get caught out by the first major fires in the season.
     
  16. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
    what was it? 2013 when that fire ripped through the BMs early october... snow in 2012....fire 2013
     
  17. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    709
    Likes Received:
    521
    Location:
    Helensburgh
    Yeah this week is going to be interesting
     
  18. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    709
    Likes Received:
    521
    Location:
    Helensburgh
    Yes was 2013 although towards the end of the month this is scary early heat
     
  19. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,455
    Likes Received:
    16,839
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    allthough people forget the HR that escaped in the september in warm weather like next week.. HR's planned in a couple of places this weekend !
     
  20. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
    So this lives in NSW now
    44 tonnes of water
    wow
    [​IMG]
     
    Claude Cat and Majikthise like this.
  21. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    6,141
    Likes Received:
    3,609
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Apart from the heat forecast, the charts look pretty boring for the next 10 days IMO - under a solid blocking H pattern
     
  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    9,516
    Likes Received:
    18,547
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
  23. Boodwah

    Boodwah A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2006
    Messages:
    5,015
    Likes Received:
    10,894
    Location:
    StKilda,VicBC,Prom,France
    yrno going for another dusting next thursday - at least back in to the freeze thaw corn cycle for remaining drifts.:)
     
  24. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yeh, both EC and GFS have the possibility of something very weak Thursday / Friday. I'm not convinced though.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Latest GFS and EC runs now suggest that change is due Saturday.
    It's changing from run to run, so I don't have a lot of faith in these predictions.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  27. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    709
    Likes Received:
    521
    Location:
    Helensburgh
    Its 8am Hobart and Darwin both 24.5 degs early Oct
     
  28. ecowain

    ecowain One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2003
    Messages:
    2,002
    Likes Received:
    3,119
    Location:
    Mount Victoria, NSW
    ... snow 2014 ...
     
  29. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,662
    Top bloke Anthony.
     
  30. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,662
    [​IMG]
    3rd driest September on record.
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,947
    Likes Received:
    10,782
    Location:
    Bonbeach, Vic
    35 and 35 next 2 days Melbourne.
    Ridiculous for beginning of October.
     
  32. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,662
    37.5 at Mildura today (a record) which will fall again tomorrow.
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  34. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,557
    Likes Received:
    4,606
    Off Spring
     
  35. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Location:
    Melbourne
    GFS and AXS both hinting at some light troughy weather for Vic and southern NSW from about Thursday onwards.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  37. zar

    zar One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2004
    Messages:
    2,289
    Likes Received:
    88
    Location:
    Melbourne/Hobart
    Nah 40.2 in 2004 is the October record.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    GFS thinks it will be rather stormy on Saturday, and also perhaps Sunday

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Vermillion likes this.
  39. zar

    zar One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2004
    Messages:
    2,289
    Likes Received:
    88
    Location:
    Melbourne/Hobart
    Hobart's hottest 5 day period for any October looks likely ( ending tomorrow ). Mean maximum of near 27C over the 5 day period. We had the second highest temperature recorded so early in the spring on the 2nd ( 29.1 ).
     
  40. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    13,832
    Likes Received:
    16,683
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    37.3 here in Western Sydney

    [​IMG]
     
    SnowBound and Claude Cat like this.
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    For tomorrow.

    [​IMG]
     
  42. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    45,291
    Likes Received:
    13,662
    I'm referring to an early season record.
     
  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Vermillion likes this.
  44. Donza

    Donza Pool Room

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2004
    Messages:
    72,779
    Likes Received:
    16,616
    Location:
    wollongong
    33.4 here in the gong
    quite still as well.
    Feels like Canberra weather
    Pool was nice as.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 11:40 am EST on Tuesday 6 October 2015.

    Weather Situation
    North to northwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of a squally southwesterly cool change moving across Victoria. The change is currently near Naracoorte-Cape Otway and should extend into central parts of the State and Gippsland during the afternoon then far eastern Victoria in the evening.

    Winds around 50-60 km/h with damaging peak gusts of 90-100 km/h are forecast for parts of the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts and elevated parts of the North East forecast district. Over Alpine parts of the State wind speeds of 60-80km/h are possible with peak gusts of 115km/h.

    Mount Buller recorded a gust of 120 km/h earlier this morning, while Mount Hotham has had a 100 km/h gust. Point Wilson has recently recorded a 89 km/h gust.
     
  46. sbm

    sbm One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2010
    Messages:
    3,064
    Likes Received:
    3,370
    Location:
    Sydney
    The whitewater kayakers are reporting high levels on the Snowy River with extreme melt on the main range over the weekend - Guthega dam was spilling!
     
  47. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    31,455
    Likes Received:
    16,839
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    looks like we currently have some of the hottest land temps on the planet ATM
     
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    121,270
    Likes Received:
    66,835
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic