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Mega Thread Spring Weather Discussion Thread

Discussion in 'General & World' started by The Fallen, Sep 8, 2016.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well... ~2-3 months later than anticipated but BOM has confirmed the end of the Negative IOD event in the latest ENSO wrap-up. At no point did it look like it was ever going to end.
    La Nina also looks less likely now. ENSO remains neutral for the moment.
    More HERE
     
    #751 POW_hungry, Nov 22, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2016
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS now falling into line with EC in terms of placement for tomorrow's cold air.
    Embedded trough inbound around 9-11am tomorrow. Both GFS & EC are going for some good totals around KNP/Alpine Nat park.
    Both models sugests the fetch appears to back track a little with the development of the Low, meaning Tassie shadowing may not impede the onshore SE flow for Vic/Alps.
    Snow above 1600m from 5pm. ~5cm (~10cm above 2000m) IMO.
     
    #752 POW_hungry, Nov 22, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2016
  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I backed this for some interest a week or so back in another discussion (PSR) ....
    It's always looked like Vic was going to get a bit more cold , Tassie always going to cop it. IMO..
    As always moisture was looking to be ahead of the cold air , (story of our powder watching / praying ski life here in Oz ).
    Good fun watching the progression , as always.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The more I look at it, Baw Baw should surprise tomorrow (2-6pm). I think we may very well see 5-10cm for Baw Baw by tomorrow eve, providing the moisture is as progged.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    20mm overnight for Baw Baw. Temp hovering around 1c.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    No snow as of yet.
    Some showers in Box Hill though
     
    #756 Jellybeans, Nov 23, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2016
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I suspect there was some chiefly at 7-7:30am on Baw Baw...
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe some sleet
     
  9. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some white stuff on the roof perhaps?

     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    A rain band is about to come across Baw Baw which is 2.7 degrees. Hotham is the coldest in the state at 1.4 degrees
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold (1500m FL) and drying out from mid-morning over Melbourne this morning.
    [​IMG]
    Sydney Skew-T is showing some great potential for severe WX this arvo. Just need the inversion to clear and surface heating and we'll be cooking with something severe this arvo.
    [​IMG]
     
    #761 POW_hungry, Nov 23, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2016
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  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It's been drier here in Melbourne than EC suggested so far, although there's a solid rain band moving in from the SW
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    40-odd mm in the Vic alps already. Seems not far off the mark to me (at least for the alps).
    But yeah, the follow-up trough looks a little late to the party.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here comes the cold pool, 2 degree drop (down to 1.1C) and precip registering for BB.
     
  15. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    @POW_hungry do you think we'll see some good storm action in Sydney town this arvo?
     
  16. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I have had 20 mm in Hallam so pretty lucky here I think.
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    0.9 degrees at Baw Baw now. Got a text from Baw Baw saying it's sleeting.
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Pretty much nothing in the morning here in Canterbury, with the odd heavy shower so far in the afternoon.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    For sure mate. Already started in the eastern 'burbs!
    The frontal bounty just passing the sydney basin and blowing up. Radar looking good for 4-6pm. Just in time for peak hour.:emoji_call_me:
     
    #769 POW_hungry, Nov 23, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2016
  20. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cold and wet here in St Kilda East, persistent system this one.

    How long since S. E Australia has had a stable high pressure system, mid May?
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Too long. Stay patient and reap the rewards of January
     
  22. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeh looks like the Gong just got smashed too.
     

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  23. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM seems unphased. No current SW Warnings for NSW at the moment.
    Thunder and lighting in the Eastern Subs...:emoji_confused:
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw into the negs now. 1mm in the can. Radar suggests plenty of moisture left in it.
     
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  26. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like some flakes now at Buller
     
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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friend from Baw Baw says snowing but not settling due to the wet ground.
     
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  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sleety, I would suggest.
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    A couple more of hours of snow in it for Vic.
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baw Baw and Buller are hovering around 0 degrees, maybe next half an hour the temps will drop at Hotham
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I suspect the frontal boundary to the West of the BMs may develop to a squall line once it hits the Sydney basin.
    I am eager to watch it pan out.
     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Snow! :) And it looks quite heavy
     
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  33. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us

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    With snow on the cams it reminds me of one week from summer eight years ago. There was 30cm then and we walked up Smiggins where you went through the entire 30cm to the grass below making it hard work, just so I could know I had skied Australia in November one week from summer - (Must try AT next season). Sticky snow going downhill over grass was tough. Nevertheless, all worth it with a mate. Keeping the spirit and all.

    23 November 2008

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    Snowing at Perisher too
     
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  35. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some rain in Canberra this arvo. looks like more coming in over Brindies.
     
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  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ground cooler?
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It would have been epic to witness snow falling in the resorts tonight as obs suggest super-light winds. I see Thredbo Top Station only has gusts in the 20-25km/h hour range whilst Perisher is enjoying light variable winds since nightfall.
    A pretty rare sight for Aus resorts.

    Perhaps 5-7cm for Perisher and still falling, thus far?
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ~5cm for Perisher. Perhaps 5-8cm for Baw Baw?
    All other resorts look to have got 3-5cm above 1600m. Maybe double that above 1800m?

    Looks like snow settled down to ~1400m in NSW on the Wilson Valley chain bay cam.
     
    #789 POW_hungry, Nov 24, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2016
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting the difference in accumulation on Guthega cam to the rest of P and Smiggs.
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friend says 10cm at Baw Baw. Several toboggans out in force...
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Guthega not yet updated? 16:47hrs is my last frame.
     
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  43. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Wow, looking like a good 10 cents.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  44. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feels like winter here in Melbourne this morning, so not surprising to see white on the cams.

    Had a decent shower on the drive to work, sky is grey and bleak. Roads wet.

    Cant quite tell if it is July or last week of November
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Get the snowmakers on! ;)
     
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  46. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep.
    Only had a quick flick thru them .
    Still hasn't updated.
    Years gone by they have switched power off by now.
     
  47. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Normo has the Perisher snowmaker app on his smartphone but he's laid up so didn't hit play or else the fv carpets would be spinning for sure. LOL.
     
  48. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    And gone..

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  49. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Still a solid patch up off Olympic that looks easily ski able for the lazy type that don't want to venture out onto the Main Range :D

    [​IMG]
     
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  50. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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