Spring Weather Rumblings

Claude Cat

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As we are slowly moving out of specific snow bearing system threads into the off season weather banter, this thread covers any spring weather discussion.

I'll start off with EC showing some troughy warm wet weather coming up for next week.

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!120!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012091300!!chart.gif


mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!168!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012091300!!chart.gif


mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!192!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012091300!!chart.gif


mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!216!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012091300!!chart.gif


Unfortunately, if it comes to pass it will hasten the snow melt.
 
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Claude Cat

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GFS coming into line with this.

12091712_1400.gif


12091812_1400.gif


Model gets a bit messy later in the week, doesn't look right, but the mood is there
wink.gif


12092000_1400.gif
 
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Claude Cat

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EC (morning run) has 850 hPa temps of +4C for Tuesday. GFS hasn't quite updated yet on the afternoon run. Seems a tad warm for snow to me.
 

Claude Cat

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Certainly CAPE is showing plenty of TS energy for Tuesday afternoon.

12091806_1400.gif


Freeze level is 2200m+
 
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Claude Cat

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Plenty of moisture with the tropical trough moving next week. Should be stormy right till Friday IMO
Not snow weather that's for sure.

apf17_init-2012091500z_fcst-z_APF_vic__.png


Storm potential high

stormcast_init-2012091500z_fcst-2012091706z_li_vic__.png


stormcast_init-2012091500z_fcst-2012091806z_li_vic__.png


stormcast_init-2012091500z_fcst-2012092006z_li_vic__.png


stormcast_init-2012091500z_fcst-2012092103z_li_vic__.png


Freeze levels well above 2500m for most of the week.
 
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Stratus

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Apr 22, 2005
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Claude Cat said:
Freeze levels well above 2500m for most of the week.

Monday / Tuesday will see a weak trough move west from the East Coast. Doesn't look too wet at all.

BoM has freeze levels for Falls Creek at 1600m Monday and 1800m Tuesday have forecast some snow showers both days. Might be a little colder then you think.

My worry is end of week, Thursday / Friday with a stronger trough coming in from WA, which is likely to develop into an inland low.
 
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The Plowking

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All models no longer pointing to overly tropical weather over the SE. Good! Few warm days/nights but maybe not so much moisture after all.
 
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D_Dog

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Jun 1, 2005
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yes, those storms heading towards the mountains (NSW and VIC) atm do not look good. do you think they will die down before they reach the resorts?
 

Snow Blowey

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blowing a gale in Dubbo and a bit of rain. Some hail in the first band of storms that passed around midday.
 

Claude Cat

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STW up. Think most of it will miss Melbourne either side.

IDV65643.gif


Although getting a nice heavy shower right now in Canterbury.
 
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FourSquare04

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That is one hell of a low S/SW of Perth progged on the BOM 4 day - the kind of system that will produce 20ft+ surf at Margs:

IDG00074.gif
 
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Claude Cat

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Models still very volatile.
GFS has a bucket-full of rain again Friday afternoon IMO

apf68_init-2012092300z_fcst-z_APF_vic__.png


12092812_2300.gif
 
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Rush

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Potential for record-high September temperatures in some areas of Australia next week.
 

Claude Cat

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GFS still very volatile for this.
Latest runs have the bulk of the moisture through central NSW

apf18_init-2012092318z_fcst-z_APF_nsw__.png


12092818_2318.gif


EC more consistent - rain Friday afternoon (20mm), snow Saturday 10cm.
 
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skiflat

Old n' Crusty
Aug 10, 1999
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dukestery said:
Is this enough rain to ruin the snow base?
Is it worth going up next weekend?

NO
YES

In that order
 
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Claude Cat

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EC starting to show some rain for the weekend in the SE

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!120!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012100112!!chart.gif


GFS not quite with it yet.

12100606_0112.gif
 
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