SSTs, SOI and La Nina?

Sandy

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Jan 1, 1998
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From the Snow Talk thread:

SST anomaly for June:
Jun.gif


Shows that it's warm south of Australia, and cold off South America.
To me, this map is more indicative of a La Nina.(I'm not sure if there's currently a La Nina, but somebody else may be able to say)
During a La Nina, my rule of thumb is that if the SOI is consistently larger than around +6, SE Australia will get more rain than snow, because this elevates the overall temperature. It also generally produces more precipitation.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 31 Jul 2013

Average for last 30 days 7.6
Average for last 90 days 8.9
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 8.6

Monthly average SOI values
May 8.0
June 10.6
July 7.4

This is NOT good, unless the SOI drops to around -2 to +2 in August.

Dammit, if I'd seen the SOI in May/June, my prediction would have been gloomy.....
 
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Falls expat

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Hermon said:
It's currently weak La Nina and negative Indian Ocean Dipole.

Incidentally, much of Eastern USA is having a non-summer, and the Arctic above 80N has recorded its shortest ever summer:
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013...mmer-on-record/

This is true about the Eastern USA being cool, but they have had a series of baking hot summers recently and this year the West has been hot and dry hence the Yosemite fires right now amongst others. Europe has also had the first hot summer in 6 or 7 years and east Asia has also seen high temp records broken and a persistent heatwave.

Part of the reason Europe, W USA and E Asia have had warm to hot summers this year has been the strong N hemisphere polar vortex that has remained place all summer. This acts to trap cold air over the polar region and reduced large meridional flows from developing in the mid-latitudes.
 
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Rush

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Jul 26, 2000
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Falls expat said:
Part of the reason Europe, W USA and E Asia have had warm to hot summers this year has been the strong N hemisphere polar vortex that has remained place all summer. This acts to trap cold air over the polar region and reduced large meridional flows from developing in the mid-latitudes.
Which has also helped reduce Arctic summer ice relative to last year. Looks like 2013 will come in somewhere between 2009 and 2010 figures.
 
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