Im in ferntree gully and its p*ssing hail and rain at mine with thunder and lightning, the bureau issued and immediate warning about 40 minutes ago for large hail and flash floods. lets hope theres not much damage. what have others experienced?
Was at Lysterfield 2 hours ago, and it intensified over the mountain and bucketed with hail and rain...LOTS of it! Radar:
'Snow is commonly formed when water vapor undergoes deposition high in the atmosphere at a temperature of less than 0°C, and then falls to the ground.' If the water vapour that is making the rain at low altitude does what Wikepedia says, yes.
I meant is this going to head towards the vic ski fields and bring us some sort of fall or will it head there and bring rain or not go there at all?
Just got back from riding my motorbike through Olinda/Sassafras/Ferny Creek got caught in very heavy rain and a thin layer of hail covering the road between Sassafras and Ferny creek.
Touch and go I guess. The radar shows some moisture moving in from the NW. Provided it gets cold enough in the Alps and the moisture hits I could snow. Falls is currently about 1c, Buller about zero and Hotham about -1. If the temps drop below freezing and the rain bands make it over the Alps it could snow. Alternatively, moist air can lift when it hits mountains and generate snow - the orographic effect (so I've learned).
Moist air will lift over the mountains and create heavier falls, but it still needs to be cold enough! Good thing though, temps hopefully will drop a degree or two in the next hour as nightfall approaches. Besides, its forecast to be a cold night tonight! Maybe some un-expected falls for the groomers to crush into a solice ice base before the rain comes this week?
Very wet in Rowville, over 10mm in half an hour. Hail was a decent size about 2ish before this current cell line hit, and its moving very slowly. "its like thunder *boom*, lightning, the way you love me is frightening"
The ones that are hitting Melbourne won't but check the Yarawonga radar and you'll see some stuff moving in, not much though.
too bad the trough is slightly to the west of melbourne, which is where the majority of the storms are forming. Watch the 128km loop. Very interesting as there is only a N flow, this morning's sounding didnt show any potential for activity either maybe it just popped up out of the blue. Not complaining though, these are the storms that fill dams.
Looks like the band will continue to move through Melbourne for awhile yet. Just starting to rain down my way (Latrobe Valley). Baw Baw might be the only mountain to catch the edge of this particular band, however looks to be too warm for snow.
Baw Baw is only a smidge off zero, so don't be surprised if they get some. They just had a .7 of a degree drop in less than a half hour.
Im up in sassafras, we've had 34mm of rain/hail in the last 2 hrs, and some pretty good thunder and lighting, the hail is still sitting on my lawn! Went for a drive theres flash flooding near belgrave, alot of water/hail on the roads. It was so localised to the dandenongs, heaviest rain ive seen up here for quite a few years
Just saw that rossi, thats a big drop! The edge of the main band is only 50km to the west, so if it shifts slightly east its a possibility. It also seems to be moving quite slow.
PLease tell me that they have just re-varnished the decking and surrounding areas at falls creek and that it what the lights are reflecting off of
You're right... my mistake... but it's looking a bit wet at both places so I'm still pouting a little... looking at heading there for the day on the 2nd so I am watching the cams with baited breath!!
Just hit the minus' in Falls lets hope any resulting cover doesn't get washed away during the week. I am quietly confident.
up at falls this arvo... on their tellys they recon it was 0.9'c and it was snowing lightly at arvos end... small pebbly crap mainly... tho i did see land on me jacket 6 pointed star like flakes... no more than 2mm in diameter, hey it was snow
Looking at this mornings soundings for Melbourne there is a little potential for thunderstorms again this arvo with a marginally positive CAPE, but the thing i like is that the energy required to get the atmosphere buoyant (Buoyancy > 0) is not that much at all and occuring around 900hpa. There is also a lot of shear between the 850hpa and 500hpa charts, further telling me that we could get some storms, more to the east of Melbourne this arvo. However, just because the conditions are right doesnt mean that it will happen, as has been shown many time during this season.
