1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Après topics or continue browsing and reading as a guest.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Weather' started by ice_man, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    I've decided to set up this thread not just purely for potential rain/snow bearing systems, but also for expected/observed fire danger days as well. Hopefully Sandy won't be too pedantic about having predictions and observations in the one thread [​IMG] So here goes.

    Bad week already forecast for Melb... 30+ degrees most of the week. And no rain in sight.

    Adelaide is even worse... 35+ from Sunday onwards!!! Weather typical of January... not November.

    Canberra... high 20's, no rain in sight.

    Sydney not looking too bad... mid 20s and chance of a shower here and there.
     
    #1 ice_man, Nov 6, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    7 days of looking at monotonous 7 day charts that update showing no moisture potential as far out as the 7th day each and every one of the past 7 days.
    Blocking bloooody highs
     
  3. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I know... booorrring! [​IMG]
     
    #3 ice_man, Nov 6, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  4. SideStreet

    SideStreet Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    May 14, 2009
    Messages:
    17,124
    Likes Received:
    164
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Thanks for that ice....it appears I have picked the right spot to live [​IMG] ......well for this week anyway. [​IMG]
     
    #4 SideStreet, Nov 7, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Looks like sun this week. We still have 2 good storms/cold fronts left in us before it fully goes to summer, IMO.
     
  6. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Agree, though I think dry for another 1.5 weeks. Next front looks like sunday-ish but just clipping atm. Cool dry air.
     
    #6 The Plowking, Nov 9, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah a slight change. Is this good surf weather, you been hitting it up lately? Fishing has been great the past 2 weeks.
     
  8. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    On the Snapper???
     
  9. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1998
    Messages:
    62,924
    Likes Received:
    9,761
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I could say "Stay on topic", but it's off season, and I couldn't be flocked!!!!!!!! [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
    #9 Sandy, Nov 9, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  10. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I'll say it Sandy. Stay on topic... [​IMG]

    I'm seeing some form of rain event (possibly big) later this month. There has to be.
     
    #10 ice_man, Nov 9, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  11. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The odds are higher for than not!
     
    #11 The Plowking, Nov 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I dont mind seeing a week of weather like this at this time of year. Maybe because in my head it makes me think it's saved us from a week of this sort of weather in Jan/Feb. I dunno it helps me sleep at night [​IMG]

    To be honest there hasnt/isnt a cold front with enough balls this week and into next to push the highs out of the way. They're not that strong IMO and a serious cold front would kick them in the guts, but there isnt one at the moment.
     
    #12 Vermillion, Nov 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    To me it's a matter of whether there's enough of a gap between the highs for a cold front or tropical trough to push through. At the moment the block isn't relenting...

    I agree with you Verm about the 'saving' part. I have the same idea with cold snaps. We get one 500 metre (or so) snow event every normal winter (2006 wasn't normal). This year we had it in June, and the rest of the season suffered. In this case I'm seeing a similarity to Queensland's September (was it?) heatwave. No November records are tumbling though... apart from consecutive days.

    And to a proper prediction: Saturday is looking very bad. A windy, dry 35C forecast for Melbourne... lucky everything is still green!
     
  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Seeing that we are on topic, the WEATHER is good for surfing, however the banks are not that great atm.
     
    #14 The Plowking, Nov 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  15. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    #15 The Plowking, Nov 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,139
    Likes Received:
    46,896
    #16 Claude Cat, Nov 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    A very large high
    [​IMG]
     
    #17 The Plowking, Nov 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

     
    #18 The Plowking, Nov 10, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 26, 2013
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Fair enough, the WEATHER has been awesome for snapper, ive been cleaning up the past few weeks. Almost out of bait but lucky for me tomorrow night will be a great tide/weather for PPB so im heading down to mornington to pick up some squid.
     
    #19 Vermillion, Nov 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Usually we have a warm period (28C+ for 3-5 days) around Sept/Oct which we didnt really have this year. I think it's been delayed and is occuring now, just it's a bit closer to summer hence it being a bit warmer. Then again i could be just rambling bullcrap.

    Whilst the highs are large, they dont look particularly strong IMO, so as i said before a strong cold front could push them out of the way.

    Saturday does not look good, i wanna get out on the boat but i think ill stay on shore. Definately a day to be inside chillin in the air con.
     
    #20 Vermillion, Nov 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  21. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    You Vicco whingers. Dry heat is tolerable as long as you get out of the sun/wind and as long as it's not over 40. Try getting some humidity into ya [​IMG]
     
    #21 smitty484, Nov 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    It's not dry heat. It's not humid heat either, it's 'suburban' yucky heat.
     
  23. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Meaning indoors. Some of us like to do things outdoors you know [​IMG] That's why we whinge.

    And no, it's not a dry heat, but it's not a humid heat either. It's something in between. Humid enough to be uncomfortable but not enough to form clouds.

    Still can't see any real change... lucky Saturday's wind factor has been removed.
     
    #23 ice_man, Nov 11, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The monotonous 7 day charts are showing continued monotony this morning. Hot again next week in Melbourne. Working outdoors in constant hot sun sucks aarrsssse.
     
  25. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Damn ur up early PK.

    I spy with my little eye something brewing around the 20th, but thats 8 days away still. Will probably disappear tomorrow but it's the best ive seen for a few weeks.

    Looks cooler in the SE for the next 2 days then warmer on the weekend again, bit windy on Sunday too i reckon.
     
  26. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Haha yeh I was just taking a pot shot. Seriously though, I was in Melbourne on Feb 7 when it hit around 47C and while that was REALLY hot, I find 34/35C with very high humidity just as unbearable in Brisbane’s summer.

    Brisbane looking pretty bland weather wise over the next week. Possibly a storm tomorrow night, but I won’t hold my breath. Maybe this year will be the year Brisbane gets hit by a cyclone again…I hope…However Cat 1 is enough [​IMG]
     
    #26 smitty484, Nov 12, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  27. Hacski

    Hacski Guest

    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Thunderstorms in Sydney have closed the airport.
     
  28. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    10,229
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    There's a cracking storm over sydney at the moment. Am on the back deck and watching the lightning pick off random targets. Looks like the Anzac Bridge just copped a cracker. And now it is absolutely [auto-censor] down.
     
  29. Undies

    Undies Premature Pool Room Person Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    18,888
    Likes Received:
    10,229
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    And have now just noticed the washing on the line.
     
  30. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,941
    Likes Received:
    1,233
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    [​IMG]
     
    #30 smitty484, Nov 12, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  31. Hacski

    Hacski Guest

    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    ... although its cloudy and windy, the wind is still nth westerly and dr, so no rain. Even the wind had dropped away and blue patches opening.
     
  32. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    20,807
    Likes Received:
    12,364
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    We have had 34, 35, 37 over the last three days. Got to 39 today. Forecast is for 36, 37, 40 and 39 for the next four days.

    Then looking at the long range charts it looks like continuing till about next thursday. Nice dry heat (relative humidity down to single figures today so it's quite nice if you are out of the sun.

    Looking forward to floating down the bidgee on saturday afternoon.
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Might be some weather at last this weekend in Vic
     
  34. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Hey what happened to my post?!
     
  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    20,807
    Likes Received:
    12,364
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Forecast for a very hot day on thursday across inland SE australia. Forecast for Dubbo is 43 on thursday and friday. Thats getting up there.
     
  36. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Nasty for Gippsland on Thursday as well... 39 for Latrobe Valley and Sale. 38 for Bairnsdale and Orbost. I'm trying to figure out where to go that day.

    I imagine we'll see some November records broken. At least there's rain on the other side of it.
     
  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    we hope!
     
    #37 The Plowking, Nov 17, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  38. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Likely to be humid too
     
    #38 The Plowking, Nov 17, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    20,807
    Likes Received:
    12,364
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Forecast in Dubbo is now 44 on Thursday and 43 on Friday. Wagga is one less each day.
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Good rain progged for the last 2 days, i need 1 more update of the same to convince me though. At this stage we're looking around 30-50mm across the divide.

    Damn, i was going to head out on the boat on Sunday too!
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,139
    Likes Received:
    46,896
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    [​IMG]

    GFS has been consistently optimistic about this period.
     
    #41 Claude Cat, Nov 18, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  42. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    My concern about a rain event after prolonged dry is getting it going. It always feels like it wants to rain more if it's been raining for a week and you get a front come through. On the other hand if it's been dry and warm like it has been and you get a front coming in, it feels like it takes a more significant front to get the rain happening and high totals. After you have that first mini-drought breaker though it's alright.

    We'll see, as much as i want to head out we could use another 30-50mm after the past 2 weeks.
     
  43. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Not quite as optimistic as the BoM has been... until the above map showed up. BoM backed off to 25-30mm all up for most of Vic today after being in the 30-40mm range. Now GFS has become more optimistic. At the very least I think there will be good falls in most areas.

    BoM is expecting storms Friday and Saturday... I fly to Brisbane on Saturday. Flight might be delayed... how fun.
     
    #43 ice_man, Nov 18, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,139
    Likes Received:
    46,896
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    This afternoon's GFS looks great for Sunday. 3 day LAPS looks very encouraging too.
     
  45. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2000
    Messages:
    17,041
    Likes Received:
    9,369
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Have a look at 5.30am readings here http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60800.shtml
    Melbourne and Gippsland in a hot pocket around 30c all night
    Geelong and entire southern vic coast in the mid teens all night.
    Mildura dropping from 39 at midnight to 26 now.
    Maybe not so 'catastrophic' today...
     
    #45 The Plowking, Nov 19, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah the total has been revised to 34C with a stronger change than they were originally expecting, and storms. Personally i cant see the storms dropping too much moisture, but that's ok because over the weekend and into next week there will be more around.

    Mid next week also looking ok for storms in the inland East of the country, a deep upper low to sit around adelaide and storm it up for a few days.
     
  47. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,036
    Likes Received:
    225
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    What hot pocket? It was around 20 all night here!

    It's a good thing that temps won't be as high as expected. We were meant to see 39 today... now pulled back to 34. Fire danger was "only" predicted to be "very high" anyway...
     
    #47 ice_man, Nov 19, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  48. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Rain over the weekend in VIC, should produce some good totals. W00t im hoping the wind stays down so i can get out Sunday morning for some snapper. How's that, fishing for big reds and plenty of rainfall, what a perfect weekend [​IMG]
     
    #48 Vermillion, Nov 20, 2009
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    110,139
    Likes Received:
    46,896
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Could be a bit lumpy and damp out on the water. I've always found the low pressure puts them off too. But as soon as it clears off to the east there should be good times to be had.
    The damp weather might slow me down getting my boat back on the water. I've got a couple of electrical issues to fix and I hate working on the boat in the rain.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    70,279
    Likes Received:
    24,294
    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Damp is ok, wind im worried about. There are so many in the bay at the moment it should still be good fishing.