Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by ice_man, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Me too.
     
  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS usually goes overboard with their predictions for amounts... but often gets the pattern right.

    BoM models now suggesting widespread falls of at least 15mm for ALL of Victoria, many places getting at least 25mm. Believable I think [​IMG]
     
    #452 ice_man, Feb 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The moisture seems to be all coming from the North, so I suspect Melbourne and Gippsland will be in a bit of a rain shadow from the ranges.
    I suspect we'll get in the range of 15 to 25mm, but I'd certainly be happy with more.
     
  4. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I dont know how much the shadow will affect melb, it seems to be forming on both side of the ranges. That front from the west will also help with rainfall totals later on today, and possibly decent thunderstorms too.
     
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Just started spitting at work here.
     
  6. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BOM saying 7.6 mil since 9AM.. im calling 10 where I am and the next large band about to hit.
     
  7. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    sorry, in shepparton
     
  8. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Is it just me or has the BOM site crashed?
     
  9. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Looks pretty good on the radar at the moment. Front coming from the west, moisture streaming in from the north, thunderstorms moving in from the NE.
     
  10. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Thunderstorms about to hit here, according to the radar. Surprised they made it over all those mountains.
     
    #460 ice_man, Feb 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  11. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah its all happening at the moment. That front will cross central areas tonight and produce good falls and storms, along with a cool change. Nice 26C and 85% humidity here in my lab, tough work when you have long pants and a lab coat over your clothes.
     
  12. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Those storms are very empty, seemingly. It poured for about ten seconds, and now it's windy and not raining at all.
    Cancel that - they're just missing us again! Ice_man's dome effect [​IMG]
     
    #462 ice_man, Feb 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 29, 2013
  13. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    [​IMG] Radar images aren't updating for me. Anyone else having this problem?
     
    #463 ice_man, Feb 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  14. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Nope im good.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Looking at the radar and satellite images, I still can't see much more than 30mm (possibly less) in this system.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BOM think it will come tomorrow. For Melbourne:

    Forecast for Friday

    Cloudy. Heavy rain easing to isolated showers by the the afternoon. Winds south to southwesterly averaging up to 35 km/h tending southerly 25 to 40 km/h during the afternoon.
     
  17. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Plenty to come with the change, good totals out west today. Then some storms on the way too, looks good in the NE at the moment.
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS likes. REALLY likes.

    [​IMG]

    Looks like Ballarat is going to be washed away. [​IMG]
     
    #468 Claude Cat, Feb 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Sheesh thats a pipedream.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BOM for next for days.

    [​IMG]

    BOM also thinks next week (8th to 11th) will be wet too.

    [​IMG]
     
    #470 Claude Cat, Feb 4, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  21. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Barely got wet working down mornington way today. Reckon 1mm at best.
     
  22. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    hmmm maybe afew mm in town but there's a long way to go yet might be a good slow soaking and catchment rain for melb with that nice 20mm or so chunk of cloud heading south
     
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Lots of good totals around the state, melb and suburbs didnt do nearly as well as the rest of the state. Perfect timing too, i said we'd need some decent rain at the start of feb to put the fire season on hold again.
     
  24. Mr Bean

    Mr Bean One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Here (St Andrews) 3mm yesterday, up to mid night, then 6mm since. Just light drizzle, but a nice soak.
     
  25. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    just had a good hour of rain at Wagga. I'm guessing 10-15mm. Clear now but more storm cells on the way.
     
  26. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    #476 h2oskier, Feb 5, 2010
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  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Very patchy. Yes, some areas north on the border have done well, but in general it's been disappointing.
    Around 10 -12 mm in town with very little left in it. Almost a fizzer.
     
    #477 Claude Cat, Feb 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Looking to next week GFS is again predicting big totals.
    [​IMG]
    Most of this is coming through Wednesday -Friday next week.
     
    #478 Claude Cat, Feb 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Well in central Melbourne it didnt live up to expectations. But i think to the west and north and now to the east it's doing a good job. Places just west of Geelong had in excess of 20mm and places east of central/western gippsland are receiving similar totals now.
     
  30. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The state is bigger than mebourne CC. Remember, the more rain we get up here the more water you can steal from us!
     
    #480 h2oskier, Feb 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Also remember that 3 days ago this was 10-30mm system. Then GFS went nuts and upgraded it to a 50mm+ system. So if you look back 2-3 days it's not a fizzer by any means. GFS just got a little excited and dragged the BOM with it.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I was hoping for 20mm out of this one, so a little disappointed.
    But even the BOM on the radio was saying that it was extremely patchy throughout the state. Some regions did well, others got very little. I'm certainly happy for all those areas that did well.
    In terms of the GFS, the falls are in balance with what was predicted early in the week, but it did get out of whack closer to the event - which is where my comment about GFS predicting 100mm+ falls was aimed at.
     
  33. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah fair point, there were some places that got very close to 100mm but they were very isolated, the majority looks to have been around 20mm.

    Like i said, it puts the dampner on the fire season, and if another batch of rain comes through within 2 weeks then id almost say fire season is over for this year.
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Well next week looks damp, even if we take GFS with a grain of salt.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    #485 Claude Cat, Feb 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Id like to believe it. 50mm in Feb and id be right on average after the first 2 months of the year, i cant remember the last time Jan AND Feb were both above average (excluding Feb05).
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Water tank is pretty full. It certainly hasn't been at the same stage the last two years.
    Also the lawn mower is getting a good workout too which is novel for the height of summer.
     
  38. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Wow. 10-15 minutes of the heaviest rain i have ever seen in Wagga. Put a cup out on the balcony and it has about 30-40mm in it in only 15 minutes.
     
  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The heavy stuff has stopped now. 60mm in 30 minutes at my place.

    Weird storm. It moved in from the north but now appears to be heading away to the north. The radar image shows a bit of rotation around wagga. Anyway definitely the heaviest rain i have seen.
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    That's intense. How do you think the rivers will cope with that sort of flashing?
     
  41. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Wasn't very widespread. The Wagga airport guage (about 6km east of me) is reading 3mm. The heavy rain isn't even showing up very heavy on the wagga radar. Its the dark blue bit just north of town on the current radar image.
     
    #491 Snow Blowey, Feb 5, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  42. Wodonga Josh

    Wodonga Josh Part of the Furniture

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    We got at least 60mm here in wodonga over the past 36 hours. Good solid rain and warm humid conditions. its really going to help us get through the summer without losing our lawn!! This time last year the whole state was burning in 46 degree dryness. Tis what i love about the weather. Humid conditions over next week should also help soil moisture remain high.
     
  43. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Today's BoM run showing massive amounts of rain for much of Vic through next weekend. 50mm+ over much of Vic, 100+ in the Alps. Very rare for a BoM run to show that over Victoria!
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS is predicting solid falls.

    [​IMG]

    BOM predicting a deluge, as you suggested ice_man

    [​IMG]
     
    #494 Claude Cat, Feb 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  45. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Plenty of rain here in Coolangatta overnight and still [auto-censor] down. We have had nearly 100mm since about 10pm last night.
     
  46. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BoM now confining the deluge to NE Victoria. GFS has a similar pattern lined up.
     
  47. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    In Byron this morning, pretty clear now.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    On the radio they were talk about 200mm of rain over night, more up towards the tweed.
     
    #497 parkmonkey, Feb 7, 2010
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  48. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Humidity is 95%, sun is out now and its warming up.
     
  49. smitty484

    smitty484 Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Good news, airport is still pouring rain and I would actually like to fly out sometime today. [​IMG] Was no fun loading 4 board bags in the cab this morning either
     
    #499 smitty484, Feb 7, 2010
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  50. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Time to build an ark. [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #500 Claude Cat, Feb 7, 2010
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