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Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by ice_man, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    And the very next GFS run shows that well get less than 5mm for the week. [​IMG]
     
    #501 Claude Cat, Feb 7, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  2. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    And then this morning it's looking like a wet weds/thurs, thurs especially.
     
  3. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Totally clueless [​IMG]

    On the other hand, BoM still predicting deluges, but in different spots every day. Today South Gippsland is thought to be hit hardest with the 100+mm.
     
    #503 ice_man, Feb 8, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I'm just banking on getting some rain this week. I think that's a reasonable assumption.
    BOM seems especially bullish on the period 12-15th Feb.
     
  5. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    CAPE/LI/TT all in good areas tomorrow and weds, i dont like to speculate further out than that wrt storms in SE AUS. Could be a little, could be a lot. I will be keeping an eye on the soundings to see what they say aswell, but it could be a good week for some places at least. GFS/BOM seem to think thurs into friday will have the most rain for melbourne.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    LI shows there's there a chance today, however, Wednesday & Thursday are looking outright stormy.
    GFS back to predicting floods for the 7 day period.
     
    #506 Claude Cat, Feb 9, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah i dont believe that, BOM model seems to think rain in the same areas but not as much. I think today more activity will be north and NW of the ranges.
     
  8. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Startin to storm it up. Further south than i expected this morning. Melbourne could be smashed tonight.
     
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yep. Thunderstorm warning out for Melbourne
     
  10. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Excitingly it could be another 2 arvo/nights of this to follow. Would have been a great day out on the water this morning, id be coming in soon though if i was out.
     
  11. Jameski

    Jameski Hard Yards

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Just got back from a drive from to yarra glen - via victoria rd and Macintyre lane - and the rain was thick!

    Was a great thunderstorm spectacular. Fork lightning was frequent and the rain was very heavy - was a struggle to see driving.

    The new golf course had some bonus ponds with all the runoff. Lots of muddy water running quickly down the sides of Macintyre lane...

    Storm has disappeared quickly and can now see clearly into the yarra ranges/christmas hills. Looking forward to some more [​IMG]
     
    #511 Jameski, Feb 9, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Afternoon GFS run is amusing. If true, Melbourne will get close to 33% of year's rainfall in the next 7 days.
    GASP is also showing lots of rainfall (although not as much as GFS).
    A fair bit of rain at Hamilton but only spots elsewhere.
     
  13. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    No consistency at all last few runs. Isolated heavy sparodic maybe-maybe not
     
    #513 The Plowking, Feb 9, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  14. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BoM and GFS have been occasionally hinting at an ECL for Sunday/Monday.
     
  15. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah GFS is entertaining the idea of a ECL in it's runs now. GFS is holding strong from tomorrow and rain. GASP is coming closer but nowhere near as much rain.

    Ill be watching with interest this afternoon, as i think it will be a good indicator of how tomorrow is going to pan out.
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    'Feels' good this morning, humid, not much wind, some nice clouds around but still sunny, it 'feels' like it will storm up good this arvo.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Looking at the GFS Liftex, we stand a very good chance of storms today, perhaps even better than tomorrow.
    Interestingly LAPS is showing a lot of moisture through to Friday too.
    EC only showing a weak ECL on Monday.

    I won't post the GFS accumulated precipitation chart as I think it's in dream land, but here is the BOMs for the next 4 days.
    [​IMG]
     
    #517 Claude Cat, Feb 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for Melbourne. Looks very stormy out to the west.
    Looking at the radar, the cell isn't far from the CBD and heading east.
    [​IMG]
     
    #518 Claude Cat, Feb 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Game time b1tches!
     
  20. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Cell missed Melbourne completely..but Wallan, Flowerdale, Kinglake copped it.
     
  21. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Rumbly out here near the airport, few spots of rain, the lights have dimmed a couple of times too.
     
  22. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Canberra looks about to be annihilated on the radar.
     
  23. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    We've had a bit of a thunder here in Jindy with some nice moisture coming down now. Dont think it will last long. Hope we get a few more rounds of it.
     
  24. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Absolutely nothing so far out here in Gippsland. It's sticking on and north of the ranges for today. Odd, seeing as how humidity levels (dew points) are highest around here.
     
  25. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    the radar has been showing all kinds of activity going around us all day in shepparton. Been sunny all day and not a drop. Some nice little downpours up along the river though.
     
  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Brewing big time to the west of Melbourne. I can see lighting over the westgate from my office in St Kilda.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/severe-thunderstorms-to-hit-melbourne-20100210-nrfu.html

     
    #527 Claude Cat, Feb 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 25, 2013
  28. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    some serious lightning across the state, north up to ACT. fingers crossed it doesnt, ahhh........
     
  29. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Just got back from driving in what could be the heaviest rain I have ever seen. Some places could have easily got 30mm. 10 here so far.
     
  30. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    did you drive it back to your house or did the ice-man-shadow effect kick in?
     
  31. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    You need a water-stick to drive it back ice man. Good to see you're getting smashed, this sort of heavy rain is best for filling tanks.
     
  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Once again sweetfark all on the mornington penis-insular
     
  33. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Not much happening here in Canterbury either. The odd spot of rain. Not enough to make anything wet.
     
  34. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    N and NW tonight again. And it's pushing from the SW so the eastern side of Melbourne misses out. The best ones start in the west and push from the NW across the bay and city.
     
  35. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Bom has a cut-off over Vic for the sunday on the 4 dayer. In line with GFS.
    Bom predictions are not in line with any model rainfall data tho.
    Seems like GFS and Gasp have decided if there is a chance for an isolated 60mm fall somewhere they had better splash colour everywhere in vic just in case
     
  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    You cant be too sure [​IMG]
     
    #536 Vermillion, Feb 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  37. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Newsflash, GFS is on drugs tonight.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    It's been on drugs all week. 100mm+ for Melbourne. [​IMG]

    Canberra to get 350mm [​IMG]
     
    #538 Claude Cat, Feb 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  39. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    33mm just north, it wasnt far off for 1 isolated area today! Give it some credit!
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    9pm GFS run is funnier still.
     
    #540 Claude Cat, Feb 10, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BoM is talking it up for today. It's already going way out to our west.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Thunderstorms forming up north & west of melbourne. Lets see if we get a show today.
    BOM has issued a thunderstorm warning for a large part of the state as of 1pm.
     
  43. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    nice rain started in Canterbury (vic) now
     
  44. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I got a little wet.. my suit may need a press.

    Some corners of the CBD were unpassable..the tram superstops became islands...I saw Haciendas floating down Collins st.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Great, the garden will a nice drink.
    Bucketing down and great light show here in St Kilda.

    Melbourne AWS reporting 25mm for the last hour.
     
    #545 Claude Cat, Feb 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Love the "this storm is very dangerous" graphic.
    They've taken it off now [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #546 Claude Cat, Feb 11, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Just been pelted again on my way home. Lots of driveways being washed onto the road.
     
  48. rangerider

    rangerider A Local

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Whoa! That was the worst storm I've seen in a long long time. I don't think I've ever seen that much lightning, it was crazy.
     
  49. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    that was wild, rode home at the tail end to see cars stuck in very deep puddles in west melbourne, should a got a photo
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I drove up and down eastlink right through it was, was very hectic. Tanks are full, excellent storms. Rained at my new house (cranbourne) well into the night, id suggest around 30mm.

    Could be some good follow-up falls too early next week.