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Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations & General Weather Banter

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by ice_man, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    At the BoM today there are reports of tornadoes around Eildon. Some pics and video footage apparently.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BoM say the next rainfall is Sunday, with that ECL coming down. Chance of heavy rain in Melbourne, but the east of the state should do very well.
     
  3. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yup Sunday arvo it will begin.
     
  4. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Snowy Hydro forecasters are apparently expecting up to 140mm over the next 72 hours in some parts of the catchment area
     
  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Rain just started in Wagga. Hopefully it's here for the day.
     
  6. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Nice rain here in jindy for the last hour
     
  7. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    We only ended up getting a couple of mm of rain yesterday but it's been raining steadily all morning and we're up to about 25mm at my place (Wagga), even though the BOM gauge is only saying 10mm. Grass is looking very green.
     
  8. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    hello monday ECL! [​IMG]
     
    #558 h2oskier, Feb 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  9. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Oh yeah.

    [​IMG]

    One way to fill Thomson Dam!
     
    #559 Claude Cat, Feb 13, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    LAPS has it going further north, missing Victoria pretty much.
     
  11. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    can see it forming up in the sat pics this morning
     
  12. Hacski

    Hacski Guest

    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Its rained pretty solidly and at times heavily since late Friday night at our place. The only trouble is mrsH topped the pool right up to above the inlet valve last weekend so that the water is right up to just below the pavers so I suspect we have salt water overflowing under them into the sand/soil that the pool sits in. [​IMG]
     
    #562 Hacski, Feb 14, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Sensational falls across the middle of NSW as forecast. About 100mm in a line through tibooburra, wilcania, through to temora and gradually moving across the state. The central west region doing very well overnight and this morning.

    Unfortunately it looks like the Bathurst / orange area has missed the best of it and this is where the dam catchments are for the Macquarie and Lachlan rivers storages.

    Looks like canberra and sydneys drinking water catchments are doing alright out of this one also.
     
  14. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    thunderstorms picking up around melbourne now, nice rotation settling in....will probably move too far east though for good falls
     
  15. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Big falls for goulburn so warragamba is looking for a decent increase over the next couple of weeks - just in time for the desalination plant to be totally useless.

    Got another 40mm in about an hour early this morning in Wagga. That gives us about 160mm for the past 10 days (at my place anyway). Flooding around condo which is bad for some but good overall as the river has been shut off because the feeder dam is less than 5%. SHould fill all there surface storages and water holes along the river.
     
  16. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    East Gipps doing good overnight and this morning, should continue for most of the day clearing later on. I dont think it will make it to Melbourne though. After this it looks a little dry for the next week.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Thomson dam has had nearly 34mm so that should end up with some sort of gain.
    A bit disappointing that melbourne didn't get anything
     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Meh it happens, but our turn will come. Anyone game to call the fire season 'over' yet?
     
  19. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    We missed out too, got a measly 5mm. We have missed a lot of the big rain events over the last week or so, even when everywhere else 3km away has been getting heaps.
     
    #569 ice_man, Feb 15, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Nothing showing up for the next 2 weeks on GFS or EC at this stage.
    On that basis, the fire season isn't done as of yet.
     
  21. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    But i dont see high winds either, maybe still to come. I think 1 more rain event and fire season is over, we could even be out of the woods now but im not willing to bet on it.
     
  22. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    My BoM mate in the NCC called it over in the middle of January based on the February-April seasonal forecast...but that's un-official.

    And for Victoria only.
     
    #572 Rush, Feb 15, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  23. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Re Vic
    2008 ? had 3 days of 40+ early march.
    Mid march is when it is over I reckon...
    That said, extended models showing fronts brushing the coast most of next week after coming weekend of low 30c'sc. Wouldnt call on the rain factor however southerly airstream should be quite persistent next week.
     
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah and i think it's more of a 'feel' thing than anything else. It hasnt felt hot for a while, and certainly nothing like last year. When you get into a rut of hot days it feels like the summer will go on forever. Apart from the start of Feb (and even then it was only mid-30's temps) it hasnt been THAT hot. We always usually get a hot spell in late march or april before it switches to a more winter/autumn setup.
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    There's no really hot days that I can see on the charts for the next 7-10 days, looks good fishing weather ...
     
  26. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS is dreaming up a low next monday/tuesday.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    10am GFS run has it off S NSW, I doubt it will be there by the evening.
    EC will have none of it.
     
    #577 Claude Cat, Feb 17, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2013
  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Afternoon GFS run has the ECL gone (no surprise), but a tropical trough providing lots of moisture to the Riverina area around Wednesday next week.
     
  29. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Where'd it go now? Hehe it's playing tricks on us again.
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    EC suggests a weak change over the weekend.
     
  31. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #581 Rush, Feb 18, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Nice.
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Plenty of instability over the next few weeks in the SE according to long range models. No strong fronts, no strong highs by the looks of it. High pressure forecast to be well south over Tassie and inland troughs over SE maintaining recent Easterly flow over Vic interspersed with a few storms I would say.
    Hottest weather may well be over for the summer.....maybe
     
  34. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah there is still 1 or 2 more hot day/s left in it, but that always happens sometime in March or April, then it'll change over to autumn.

    Looks like minimal wind for the most-part too, good for fishing.
     
  35. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Speaking of fire season, today could be a bit of a challenge, hot and windy. Perhaps the last hurrah for the fire season.
    We might get a drop or two on Monday, but I won't be holding my breath. Perhaps something more substantial for far east gippsland, though.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BOM & GFS predicting rain for next Sunday.
     
  37. h2oskier

    h2oskier One of Us

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    never mind next sunday. its raining right now. Few nice showers this arvo here in albury. Nice looking band heading up the border.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Looks like some nice rain on the vic/nsw border.
     
  39. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    All models have upgraded the Low/Front to Vics SW too this arvos run. Looks to penetrate further into Vic than previous model runs. Gippsland might do OK, 20mm +maybe.
    Melbourne less but you never know.
     
  40. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Yeah im seeing it being a little bit better than forecast, but still going to hold back on amounts. Good thing i got the deck all finished on the weekend, i wouldnt want to be sloshing around in the mud today/tomorrow.
     
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Gippslands going to do alright this morning, and more coming this arvo.

    I barely got wet at work this morning, wouldnt have even registered on the gauge. I was right on the very edge of that rainband heading to gippsland now, it looked very dark to the north.
     
  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    I got a little wet riding the bike to work today. Rained until Malvern and then dry all the way to St Kilda - enough to dry me completely off.
    It might be a bit wetter on the way home.

    GFS still thinks we'll get a reasonable strong southery change for the weekend. EC shows something but not nearly as strong.
     
  43. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Nothing much happening this arvo, a change to brush us but nothing exciting.

    Hopefully it's ok saturday morning [​IMG]
     
    #593 Vermillion, Feb 22, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    yes, I don't think I'll need my wet weather gear on for the ride home.
     
  45. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    A bit of rubbish floating around south of VIC, might brush the coast but nothing magical.

    I notice weather people on the TV (the most reliable source!) are predicting big things for Sunday.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BOM now have a nice 8 day rainfall map. It's showing nice falls for the next week
    [​IMG]
    The forecasts for the weekend have backed off for Melbourne, I think we'll see a few showers on Sunday. But later next week is shaping up as interesting with that tropical moisture heading south.
     
    #596 Claude Cat, Feb 26, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  47. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    Still very up in the air at the moment, as it always is with these tropical things.
     
  48. Rush

    Rush Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    BoM ACCESS runs are suggesting large rainfalls for next week as a trough develops from the tropics into a cut-off low.

    The ECMWF runs don't predict such a deep low trough.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    GFS precipitation for the same period.
    [​IMG]
     
    #599 Claude Cat, Feb 26, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  50. Outlooker

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    Re: Summer 2009 - 2010 Predictions/Observations

    The further south it pushes the better. Lake Eyre is going to be good to watch asthe ground is already wet and there is some flow in the upper rivers. Hopefully we get a bit more for the Darling